Cincinnati game

[MadJack]

So Nacho are you saying that we shouldn't even show up for the last 4 games? What the hell is your definition of "not winnable"? You probably thought last year against Houston was "not winnable"! Check the scoreboard 38-16. All the 6 remaining games are WINNABLE! Do some have a probability greater than others, absolutely. Depending on how each team is playing, location of game and injuries are only a few components that determine "winnability". Based on that do I believe we will win all 6, no, but a chance to win all 6, absolutely.

[ponyboy]

Scratching my head too.

[Nacho]

maybe Tulane but we were lucky to beat them last year. Memphis there doubtful. navy-haha. ucf-no.

[ponyboy]

You need a dictionary.

[SMU_Alum11]

We are talking about probabilities and not effort. Big difference. Neither I or Nacho are saying to the team, hey guys just go ahead and call off the game. No, but from a fan perspective and from our performance against Houston, yeah they're not winnable games with our defense and OL.

From a rankings/stat perspective (Sagarin),

#72 - SMU (68.32pts)

Rest of the schedule:

#100 - Cincy (60.60) - Should win this game but that's why we are saying it's a huge game (5-2)
#98 - Tulsa (61.56) - Must win game as well and fortunately at home (6-2)
#21 - UCF (82.10) - Hence why Nacho and I are penciling as a fan as a loss despite being at home (6-3)
#53 - Navy (73.34) - Again, it's going to be a huge task on the road. (6-4)
#50 - Memphis (73.85) - Same as above. (6-5)
#82 - Tulane (65.16) - Being at home, we might have a shot but I think their stock will continue to go up putting us even. (7-5)

For the sake of seeing where our wins came from:

Beaten
#217 - SFA (33.78) @ home
#107 - NTCC (59.81) @ home
#97 - Arkansas State (61.84) @ home
#141 - UCONN (51.59) @ home

This is why we are at the moment looking at 6-6 or 7-5 if we can handle Tulane. Houston

[ponyboy]

Then I think am in full agreement with you. But understand that "not winnable" and "don't have a shot" mean that there is zero or near zero chance we will win the game. "Might have a shot" means we're probably going to lose but maybe we'll get lucky and have a chance to pull out a victory.

[Pony ^]

6-6

[Nacho]

5-7

[SMUer]

This game was exactly what should have been expected. Lost on the road to Houston. Next.

Every one of our remaining games is winnable. We don't have Alabama on the schedule.

What are YOU talking about?!? We have two Top-25 teams on our schedule that are clearly better than Houston (UCF, Navy) and a Memphis team that is about the same strength as Houston and has wiped the floor with us three years in a row. Are you saying they are ΓÇ£winnableΓÇ¥ but that we should not soberly expect to win?

I just think you guys like to pretend to be a sage when we lose but an optimist before the game. I’ll give you credit for predicting a big Houston win, but I don’t see how ΓÇ£we shouldn’t expect a Houston win, but all those other games are opportunities.

[SoCal_Pony]

Last time (I believe) SMU won a conference game on the road vs a team with a winning record.

Hint :

LAST CENTURY

[Pony Boss]

Last time (I believe) SMU won a conference game on the road vs a team with a winning record.

Hint :

LAST CENTURY

So? Make history!

[sbsmith]

Last time (I believe) SMU won a conference game on the road vs a team with a winning record.

Hint :

LAST CENTURY

1997 at Utah (6-5) W 20-19

[Nacho]

Last time (I believe) SMU won a conference game on the road vs a team with a winning record.

Hint :

LAST CENTURY

1997 at Utah (6-5) W 20-19

I was at that game. wow was it really 20 years ago.

[SMU_Alum11]

In addition to the stuff I listed below, I thought this was interesting not only about our conference but our particular division. Credit to Stallion for record calling that we would be lucky to be 7-5. I'm actually quite shocked at how strong our division is given that UCF and USF are both in the East division. Now take it for what you will. The ACC is probably little understated given their bottoms are pretty bad, but still pretty interesting to see this on a top 12 divisions. The next best part is on average we are measurable distance away from the next G5.

Sagarin by conference by division:

1 BIG TEN-EAST - 84.53
2 PAC-12(NORTH) - 80.22
3 BIG 12 - 78.50
4 ACC-ATLANTIC - 78.38
5 PAC-12(SOUTH) - 75.33
6 ACC-COASTAL - 74.78
7 AAC WEST - 74.29
8 SEC-WEST - 72.60
9 BIG TEN-WEST - 71.32
10 SEC-EAST - 69.98
11 AAC EAST - 62.53
12 MWC-MOUNTAIN - 60.45

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

We are talking about probabilities and not effort. Big difference. Neither I or Nacho are saying to the team, hey guys just go ahead and call off the game. No, but from a fan perspective and from our performance against Houston, yeah they're not winnable games with our defense and OL.

From a rankings/stat perspective (Sagarin),

#72 - SMU (68.32pts)

Rest of the schedule:

#100 - Cincy (60.60) - Should win this game but that's why we are saying it's a huge game (5-2)
#98 - Tulsa (61.56) - Must win game as well and fortunately at home (6-2)
#21 - UCF (82.10) - Hence why Nacho and I are penciling as a fan as a loss despite being at home (6-3)
#53 - Navy (73.34) - Again, it's going to be a huge task on the road. (6-4)
#50 - Memphis (73.85) - Same as above. (6-5)
#82 - Tulane (65.16) - Being at home, we might have a shot but I think their stock will continue to go up putting us even. (7-5)

For the sake of seeing where our wins came from:

Beaten
#217 - SFA (33.78) @ home
#107 - NTCC (59.81) @ home
#97 - Arkansas State (61.84) @ home
#141 - UCONN (51.59) @ home

This is why we are at the moment looking at 6-6 or 7-5 if we can handle Tulane. Houston

[skyscraper]

Before the season I predicted 7-5 with us winning all home games and losing all
Road games. At this post I'd wanna swap Cincy for UCF and that Tulane game in front of 4K on thanksgiving weekend is a toss up now.