PonyFans.com

Milton only has 19 Interceptions in 28 career games-so he's not prone to throw a lot of picks

Our defense is good enough to bring us the W. Can't wait.

Keys to competitiveness:

1. TOP. We will need to hold the ball for long stretches and score TDs. If we can be effective running the ball and short throws, that will be huge. Keeps their offense off the field. I'm not very confident in our OL though. If Jones and Freeman are healthy, we have depth though.

2. Strong return game. If we can take 1 (or 2) to the house, that will be very huge. This is very possible with Roberson/Proche (will Sanders be back?).

3. Win the turnover battle. This is key to any victory but if we get lucky and get a fumble or INT, that could keep it competitive if the other 2 keys are locked in.

They're looking ahead to Memphis!

Horseshoe wrote:They're looking ahead to Memphis!

Why? We are ahead of them in the standings.

ojaipony wrote:Keys to competitiveness:

1. TOP. We will need to hold the ball for long stretches and score TDs. If we can be effective running the ball and short throws, that will be huge. Keeps their offense off the field. I'm not very confident in our OL though. If Jones and Freeman are healthy, we have depth though.

2. Strong return game. If we can take 1 (or 2) to the house, that will be very huge. This is very possible with Roberson/Proche (will Sanders be back?).

3. Win the turnover battle. This is key to any victory but if we get lucky and get a fumble or INT, that could keep it competitive if the other 2 keys are locked in.

Our kickoff coverage will need to improve dramatically

UCF looks pretty impressive

31 First Downs per game
6.1 yards per attempt
14.3 yards per catch
7.3 yards per play
48.8 points per game

and they are very balanced-pretty even numbers on the ground and through the air

SMU in comparison

18 First Downs per game
3.8 yards per rush
11.8 per catch
5.3 per play
29.8 points per game

PonySnob wrote:

ojaipony wrote:Keys to competitiveness:

1. TOP. We will need to hold the ball for long stretches and score TDs. If we can be effective running the ball and short throws, that will be huge. Keeps their offense off the field. I'm not very confident in our OL though. If Jones and Freeman are healthy, we have depth though.

2. Strong return game. If we can take 1 (or 2) to the house, that will be very huge. This is very possible with Roberson/Proche (will Sanders be back?).

3. Win the turnover battle. This is key to any victory but if we get lucky and get a fumble or INT, that could keep it competitive if the other 2 keys are locked in.

Our kickoff coverage will need to improve dramatically

Agreed! (and I'll probably end up eating these words, but UCF hasn't done much in the return game and they've given up a few returns, which is why I added #2). I think Dykes will clean up a bit of our coverage issues. The keys really are TOP and turnovers. Win both overwhelmingly and we are in this game right til the end.

Stallion wrote:UCF looks pretty impressive

31 First Downs per game
6.1 yards per attempt
14.3 yards per catch
7.3 yards per play
48.8 points per game

and they are very balanced-pretty even numbers on the ground and through the air

SMU in comparison

18 First Downs per game
3.8 yards per rush
11.8 per catch
5.3 per play
29.8 points per game

One of the stats websites shows the totals as well as the last three games. Our numbers look a lot better over the last three games .

I went back and looked at the UCF play by play for their games this season. They definitely use the pass to set up the running game rather than the other way around. Most of their first quarter and second quarter drives are either pass attempts or Milton running (play by play, not sure what the mix is between a RPO, zone read, and a scramble). Second half is very run heavy just killing time with a lead. The offense ends up balanced at the end of the day.

I fully expect them to spread the field and try to throw the ball around early. A little bit of pure run mixed in, but they will throw it and rely on Milton's legs if coverage is decent. When they have a talent advantage, they really work hard to get up early and coast the rest of the game. Unless they have some reason to respect our secondary or they view our team as equal, I expect them to play aggressive with the passing game and focus there. 28-7 half and 49-17 for the game.

If the OL can give Brown a clean pocket to pass from I think a SMU can put up some points if the receivers can get open. The question is can the defense hold down UCF.

Stallion wrote:UCF looks pretty impressive

31 First Downs per game
6.1 yards per attempt
14.3 yards per catch
7.3 yards per play
48.8 points per game

and they are very balanced-pretty even numbers on the ground and through the air

SMU in comparison

18 First Downs per game
3.8 yards per rush
11.8 per catch
5.3 per play
29.8 points per game

Thank you for the stats.

UCF played:

1-4 Uconn
0-4 South Carolina State
2-3 FAU
2-3 Pitt
1-3 UNC [did not play / game was postponed]

SMU played:

4-1 UNT
3-2 TCU
4-1 Michigan
2-2 Navy
1-3 HBU

Sorry but UCF does not impress me all that much. I get that they are #3 in total offense but they are moving the ball against weaker competition.

#1 defense - Michigan
#15 defense - TCU
#24 defense - UNT

Stallion wrote:UCF looks pretty impressive

31 First Downs per game
6.1 yards per attempt
14.3 yards per catch
7.3 yards per play
48.8 points per game

and they are very balanced-pretty even numbers on the ground and through the air

SMU in comparison

18 First Downs per game
3.8 yards per rush
11.8 per catch
5.3 per play
29.8 points per game

The Pirate's thoughts on "balance" for what it's worth...

(Maybe the most glaring thing on the stat sheet from Wazzu’s win over Utah was the lack of rushing yards- 0 to be exact. Obviously Washington State is a pass-first team, but that’s still a stat that sticks out. For Leach, though, it’s no problem.

"There's nothing balanced about 50 percent run, 50 percent pass, because that's 50 percent stupid," the WSU coach said Monday. "What is balanced is when you have five skill positions, if all five of them are contributing to the offensive effort in a somewhat equal fashion that's balanced.")