2016-2017 Bracketology Thread

mrydel · Post by **mrydel** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:41 am

I would relish a 1 seed in the second round

The PonyGrad · Post by **The PonyGrad** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:50 am

BPI 19, rpi 25
That's a 5 or 7 seed if there is any justice
Nevermind, who am I kidding

RGV Pony · Post by **RGV Pony** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:16 pm

Man id love to face 1 seed in the sat /Sunday game in Tulsa

indianmustang · Post by **indianmustang** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:32 pm

For fun let's say we run the table and lose in AAC finals,what seed do smu get

SMUstangs22 · Post by **SMUstangs22** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:46 pm

indianmustang wrote:For fun let's say we run the table and lose in AAC finals,what seed do smu get

Knowing the selecti9n committee first 4 out

DanFreibergerForHeisman · Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:49 pm

In today's update Lunardi has us a 7 facing Kansas State and then Louisville in Indianapolis.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

RI Stang · Post by **RI Stang** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:53 pm

indianmustang wrote:For fun let's say we run the table and lose in AAC finals,what seed do smu get

Assuming the loss is to Cincy in the AAC finals, I would guess right on the border between a 7 and an 8. Win out from here and we get a 6.

PonyLawExpress · Post by **PonyLawExpress** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:15 pm

RI Stang wrote:
indianmustang wrote:For fun let's say we run the table and lose in AAC finals,what seed do smu get

Assuming the loss is to Cincy in the AAC finals, I would guess right on the border between a 7 and an 8. Win out from here and we get a 6.

I would say a 6 is likely our ceiling. Could potentially sneak up to a 5 depending on other teams, but would likely have to win the AAC tourney for that to be a certain 5 seed. Because if we were 29-5 and regular season conference champs and lost to Cincy in championship would be hard not to make us a 6 seed. We were 27-6 when we got a 6 in 2014-15.

smitty329 · Post by **smitty329** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:21 pm

PonyLawExpress wrote:
RI Stang wrote:
indianmustang wrote:For fun let's say we run the table and lose in AAC finals,what seed do smu get

Assuming the loss is to Cincy in the AAC finals, I would guess right on the border between a 7 and an 8. Win out from here and we get a 6.

I would say a 6 is likely our ceiling. Could potentially sneak up to a 5 depending on other teams, but would likely have to win the AAC tourney for that to be a certain 5 seed. Because if we were 29-5 and regular season conference champs and lost to Cincy in championship would be hard not to make us a 6 seed. We were 27-6 when we got a 6 in 2014-15.

avoid the 5 seed. too many upsets by 12 seeds.

smusic 00 · Post by **smusic 00** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:47 pm

46 11 seeds have upset 6 seeds and 46 12 seeds have upset 5 seeds. Only 26 13 seeds have upset the 4, and 21 14 seeds have upset the 3. (8 15's and 0 16's)

smusic 00 · Post by **smusic 00** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:52 pm

Our 12-5 perception is heavily weighted on the last 5 years or so, so maybe a trend is developing, but historically it's not accurate to believe a 12-5 is a likely upset. 7-10 and 8-9 produce many more upsets.

Pony_Law · Post by **Pony_Law** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:23 pm

smusic 00 wrote:Our 12-5 perception is heavily weighted on the last 5 years or so, so maybe a trend is developing, but historically it's not accurate to believe a 12-5 is a likely upset. 7-10 and 8-9 produce many more upsets.

the 12 over the 5 is a bit of a anomaly that mass media has caught on to but there is a bit of reason behind it. 12 teams more often then not are schools from smaller conferences that won their tournament and are playing well. 5 seeds tend to be teams from larger conferences that are good but have a flaw and/or are faltering toward the ed of the year. A flawed team potentially overlooking a small school that is playing well/peaking is a recipe for an upset.

smusic 00 · Post by **smusic 00** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:29 pm

Yeah that's how it has been the last few years, so maybe a trend is starting like I was saying, but three years out of four in a span of thirty years does not make it more than an anomaly as you said.

DanFreibergerForHeisman · Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:07 pm

ESPN's first bubble watch was published today:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: Cincinnati
Work left to do: SMU

SMU [20-4 (10-1), RPI: 25, SOS: 105] Expecting SMU to quietly fade from relevance wasn't a crazy bet; not only did the Mustangs lose coach Larry Brown, but also the on-court core of Brown's success in his four-year tenure (Nic Moore, Jordan Tolbert, Markus Kennedy, et al.). But the first year of the Tim Jankovich era has been an unmitigated success, especially lately, as the Mustangs have rounded into shape during conference play. After starting 4-3, SMU is 16-1 in its past 17 games, and was a bucket away from a win at Cincinnati on Jan. 12. Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye has shown why he was signed by no less august a program than the Blue Devils in the first place. Cincinnati comes to Moody Coliseum on Sunday. Don't miss it.

Grant Carter · Post by **Grant Carter** » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:09 pm

I think what they are missing, or at least missed, is that Sterling and Ben were huge parts of the core they refer to. Certainly more so than Tolbert since he was just here one year and I think many would say more so than Kennedy.