2015 Bracketology Thread

[Harry0569]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

Work left to do: SMU, Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa

With all due respect to the rest of the league, the most interesting story in the American remains UConn's long-shot odds of getting back to the NCAA tournament. The Huskies remain nowhere near at-large consideration, but after a visit from Tulsa on Thursday, a potential top-50 win in its own right, Kevin Ollie's team gets two cracks at SMU down the stretch. If the Huskies win out, they would finish the regular season at 21-9 with possibly five or even six top-50 wins. There's still a chance.

SMU [19-5 (10-2), RPI: 22, SOS: 57] SMU bounced back from last week's loss to Cincinnati with a road triumph two days later. OK, calling a win at Tulsa a "triumph" is probably pushing it. Still, give credit where it's due: The Golden Hurricane and their top-25 efficiency defense were riding a 12-game winning streak, and SMU's suddenly potent offense -- which leads the American in points per trip at 1.10 -- did just enough in the Reynolds Center in a 68-57 win. Tulsa's RPI is hovering around the top-50 fringe, but for now this counts as a top-50 victory, slightly buttressing the one questionable area on SMU's resume: marquee wins. Provided Larry Brown's team handles its business at Houston on Thursday, there are few opportunities to add a bad win and thus few reasons to see SMU as anything but a likely tournament team this season.

Cincinnati [17-6 (8-3), RPI: 29, SOS: 54] The Bearcats were already in pretty strong position before a road win at SMU this past Thursday, which completed a home-road sweep of Larry Brown's club. Combined with a December home win over San Diego State, that's three top-25(-ish) wins in total. Saturday's visit from South Florida made for a tricky afternoon, but Cincy held on, 63-58. The Bearcats have four losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 80, including an ugly loss at East Carolina, and there are three RPI landmines left on the schedule (Tulane, at Houston, at Tulane). But it would take a pretty gnarly string of losses to put a team with these kinds of numbers and wins at serious risk of missing the Dance.

Temple [17-7 (8-3), RPI: 39, SOS: 61] Memphis can't seem to catch a break. The Tigers are already struggling through the worst season of Jeff Pastner's tenure; on Saturday, they led Temple by 10 points at halftime and looked like they might finally have a chance to build some late-season momentum. Nope: Temple came storming back, and Josh Brown hit a game-winning jumper with 6 seconds to play, and Memphis squandered Shaq Goodwin's 23-board night in a 61-60 loss. For the Owls, the victory was massive, because every victory is massive. On Monday, Temple was one of Joe Lunardi's last four teams in the field. When you're that attached to the bubble, the usual concerns about the quality and location of various wins or losses recedes to the background, and every win or loss becomes important on its own terms. Next up? Tuesday night's visit from Cincinnati.

Tulsa [17-6 (10-1), RPI: 47, SOS: 126] The 2014-15 American is such that Tulsa could win its first 10 games in league play without notching any win better than a Jan. 10 road win at Temple. Home wins over Connecticut and Memphis don't do the Golden Hurricane as much good as they normally would, of course, and the above is not to say that Tulsa hasn't been good during this stretch -- Frank Haith's combination of excellent defense and the Shaquille Harrison/James Woodard offensive duo has produced some quality hoop along the way. The point is, Tulsa has played just nine top-150 opponents all season. One of them, SMU, beat Tulsa on its home court Saturday. This is a still the first-place team in the American, but one with a pretty soft profile and a lot of work to do in the next four weeks.

[Grant Carter]

I agree with what he said about SMU except I take exception to his wording that we did just enough to win. Winning by 11 on the road (and being up by even more than that late in the game) is not doing just enough.

[NY Pony]

Who's Jeff Pastner? Maybe that explains their struggles...

[Mustangs35SMU]

I agree with what he said about SMU except I take exception to his wording that we did just enough to win. Winning by 11 on the road (and being up by even more than that late in the game) is not doing just enough.

Agreed.

Outside of a run by Tulsa to tie the game in the second, we controlled the game from the get go and following their tie we blew it wide open.

We did more than enough to beat Tulsa.

[mustang1992]

I agree with what he said about SMU except I take exception to his wording that we did just enough to win. Winning by 11 on the road (and being up by even more than that late in the game) is not doing just enough.

We pretty much controlled the game from the start, even when they tied it in the second I was never worried.

I think we sat in front of you at the Tulsa game GC. I was with my dad.

[Grant Carter]

I agree with what he said about SMU except I take exception to his wording that we did just enough to win. Winning by 11 on the road (and being up by even more than that late in the game) is not doing just enough.

We pretty much controlled the game from the start, even when they tied it in the second I was never worried.

I think we sat in front of you at the Tulsa game GC. I was with my dad.

It was nice meeting you. Glad y'all made it back safely that night. I am still hoarse.

[Harry0569]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... ndex021115

28. SMU Mustangs

Last season SMU was a program on the rise, but the Mustangs recorded the highest turnover rate of any team in American play and Larry Brown's group just missed the field of 68. Now in 2014-15, that turnover rate has dropped to the league average ("average" never sounded so good in Dallas), and Southern Methodist is tearing through opposing defenses to the tune of 1.11 points per possession. Point guard Nic Moore has made 43 percent of his 3s in conference play, and the Yanick Moreira-Markus Kennedy duo is supplying the points in the paint. Road games at Houston, Memphis and Connecticut await a program seeking a share of the second-ever American title. -- John Gasaway

[Harry0569]

Other Teams of Note:

4. Gonzaga Bulldogs

We're fast running out of ways to describe just how lethal this Gonzaga offense really is, but I'll give it a shot. Przemek Karnowski may end the season as the most effective 2-point-scoring weapon (weighted by usage) since the days of Ricardo Ratliffe. Kevin Pangos is having what might be termed the Platonic ideal of a point guard season. Domantas Sabonis is outstanding on the offensive glass. And Kyle Wiltjer is bringing accuracy and volume together in a way that garnered a tad more attention in the past when the person doing it was named Jimmer or Doug. Whether or not they run the table in conference play (and I like their chances to do so), the Bulldogs have the look of a Final Four team. -- John Gasaway

17. Arkansas Razorbacks

The next time you watch the Razorbacks, remember this Solomon-like pronouncement from yours truly: It is all about the turnovers. Teams like VCU and West Virginia have the reputation (quite rightly) for living and dying according to their turnover margins. Well, that particular description fits the Hogs, too. On each "effective" (or turnover-less) possession in SEC play, Mike Anderson's team has actually been outscored by opponents. But because Arkansas forces those opponents into turnovers on 23 percent of their possessions, it simply gets more chances to score. And, make no mistake, the Razorbacks need those extra chances. Bobby Portis is a reliable source of points, but on the whole this is not a good shooting team. -- John Gasaway

25. Baylor Bears

The Bears have lost twice to Oklahoma State lately, but Rico Gathers continued his assault on the backboards of this nation. Since Jan. 3, the burly 6-foot-7 forward has grabbed 176 rebounds, including posting seven games of 15 or more rebounds. That is "Beast Mode." -- Jay Bilas

30. Texas Longhorns

What could the Longhorns have been with a complete roster throughout the season? Losing Isaiah Taylor for 10 games, then the rust of several more, has been a difficult adjustment for Texas, especially on the offensive end. Taylor has bounced back over the past couple of weeks, averaging more than 19 points per game over his past five. -- Jay Bilas

31. Texas A&M Aggies

Billy Kennedy's interior defense is excellent, and 6-foot-5 junior Alex Caruso is yet again combining steals with assists in a way that few other players nationally can match. This is a solid team that's won seven of its past eight as it prepares for a three-game homestand (a real SEC rarity). The one wrinkle with the Aggies is they allow opponents to launch a huge number of 3-point attempts. Those shots haven't fallen so far, but if they ever do the points will add up in a hurry. -- John Gasaway

40. Indiana Hoosiers

This IU offense is consistency in motion. In each of the past three games the Hoosiers have scored between 1.17 and 1.20 points per trip. Of course the fact that one of those games was a 14-point loss (Wisconsin scored 1.42) highlights the need for better defense in Bloomington. It's true that outlook should brighten on D now that Hanner Mosquera-Perea has returned from the injured list, but even with the 6-9 junior on the floor this will still be an entertaining offense-first outfit led by James Blackmon, Yogi Ferrell and Troy Williams. Anytime someone says "scoring is down," tell them to watch the Indiana offense -- and defense. -- John Gasaway

41. Cincinnati Bearcats

Larry Davis has done a terrific job in the absence of head coach Mick Cronin, who has in turn done a nice job of helping Davis and creating an atmosphere. The Bearcats continue to guard people, and point guard Troy Caupain has had a solid season, averaging 11 points, including 83 percent from the free throw line. -- Jay Bilas

53. UConn Huskies

This is the wait-and-see period with UConn. Given this program's history, no one will come right out and write off Ryan Boatright and the Huskies, but I don't notice anyone rushing forward to pick a repeat title, either. Too many turnovers and a lack of points in the paint have plagued Connecticut this season. That said, if Kevin Ollie's team wins its next three games -- at home against Tulsa, and on the road at SMU and Memphis -- just wait and see how fast this bandwagon fills to capacity. -- John Gasaway

65. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

After losing five of their first 10, the Golden Hurricane won 12 straight before losing to SMU at home. The difficulty for Tulsa is that the American is not providing the resistance it needs to establish an impressive tournament résumé. There were no stellar nonconference wins and no wins against the BPI top 50. In fact, Tulsa has only three wins against the BPI top 100, and 12 of its wins are against the bottom half of Division I. -- Jay Bilas

[Harry0569]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

7 seed vs. Colorado State in Omaha. Would play Buzzcuts in second round.

[Pony_Law]

I don't know I just feel like we are going to go 6-0 or 5-1 down stretch hear and that that will be enough to get us at least a 6 seed.

[PonyFan32]

I don't know I just feel like we are going to go 6-0 or 5-1 down stretch hear and that that will be enough to get us at least a 6 seed.

I like that you are willing to make a bold prediction. I would be happy with 4-2 but hoping for better (who am I kidding... anything less than 6-0 will feel a little disappointing). Away games at UCONN and Memphis and home against Temple worry me the most.

[smusic 00]

My SMU is kicking in about this time.

[JasonB]

I don't know I just feel like we are going to go 6-0 or 5-1 down stretch hear and that that will be enough to get us at least a 6 seed.

I like that you are willing to make a bold prediction. I would be happy with 4-2 but hoping for better (who am I kidding... anything less than 6-0 will feel a little disappointing). Away games at UCONN and Memphis and home against Temple worry me the most.

2 losses gets us a share of the conference. 1 and we win outright. Split against UCONN and Memphis and we are in really good shape.

That said, I have a really, really bad feeling about tonight. Nic isn't healthy, and Houston went off from the outside against us in the first game and held it close until midway in the second half.

We are going to have to maul them inside in order to win tonight I think. And take possessions away to limit the three. MK is going to have to be absolutely huge and is coming off two poor performances.

[Harry0569]

I don't know I just feel like we are going to go 6-0 or 5-1 down stretch hear and that that will be enough to get us at least a 6 seed.

I like that you are willing to make a bold prediction. I would be happy with 4-2 but hoping for better (who am I kidding... anything less than 6-0 will feel a little disappointing). Away games at UCONN and Memphis and home against Temple worry me the most.

FWIW, KenPom predicts us to win out:
Opponent / Score / Win Probability
@ Houston / 69-58 / 88%
vs. UCONN / 64-57 / 80%
vs. Temple / 64-58 / 76%
@ Memphis / 64-62 / 62%
@ UCONN / 61-60 / 53%
vs. Tulsa / 65-58 / 80%

[Pony147]

FWIW, KenPom predicts us to win out:
Opponent / Score / Win Probability
@ Houston / 69-58 / 88%
vs. UCONN / 64-57 / 80%
vs. Temple / 64-58 / 76%
@ Memphis / 64-62 / 62%
@ UCONN / 61-60 / 53%
vs. Tulsa / 65-58 / 80%

Those analytics don't mean anything