http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatchPerhaps the defending champs aren't quite done yet. On Thursday night, UConn blitzed Tulsa, the leader in the American standings, 70-45. It was, as Kevin Ollie said afterward, "our most complete game from top to bottom, defensively and offensively." Where the bubble is concerned, the win is notable less for its result (a home win over Tulsa is hardly a king-making affair) than for how well Connecticut played. Ollie has gone to a small-ball lineup, moving Daniel Hamilton from small forward to power forward, and, all of a sudden, UConn has the second-most efficient offense in its league, to go along with an even peskier, press-happy defense. If this keeps up at SMU on Saturday, we could have a genuine bubble situation on our hands. You've been forewarned.
SMU [20-5 (11-2), RPI: 24, SOS: 69] Technically, yes, SMU still has work to do. The Mustangs' resume isn't so strong -- particularly at the top, where they've won only two of their seven games against top-50 teams -- to survive a complete and utter collapse down the stretch. But at 18-5, with five regular-season games left, that's what it would take. Even better? After Thursday's win at Houston, all of SMU's remaining opponents are ranked in the RPI top 100 at this point; there is no string of truly ugly losses to avoid. The Mustangs don't have the wins to be considered anywhere close to a lock. But they're also very unlikely to miss the tournament, given the composition of their stretch run.
Cincinnati [17-7 (8-4), RPI: 31, SOS: 41] The Bearcats were already in pretty strong position before last week's road win at SMU, which completed a home-road sweep of Larry Brown's club. With a home win over San Diego State on Dec. 17, that's three top-25(-ish) wins in total. A visit from South Florida on Feb. 7 made for a tricky afternoon, but Cincy held on 63-58. The Bearcats' loss at Temple helps the Owls much more than it hurts Cincy. The Bearcats have four losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 80, including a really ugly loss at East Carolina, and there are four RPI landmines left on the schedule (Tulane, at Houston, UCF, at Tulane). But it would take a pretty gnarly string of defeats to put a team with these kinds of numbers and wins at serious risk of missing the Dance.
Temple [18-7 (9-3), RPI: 34, SOS: 56] Nice win for the Owls over Cincinnati on Tuesday night, as they have a bit of extra bubble mojo working in their favor. As Joe Lunardi noted on Twitter, Fran Dunphy's team is undefeated with its full lineup intact. The injuries have come in fits and spurts, but they have coincided with most of Temple's losses, and that in itself constitutes a major opportunity: If the Owls can spend the next three weeks showing off how good they are at full strength, the committee will have to evaluate them on that basis, and less on how they looked when banged up.
Tulsa [17-7 (10-2), RPI: 47, SOS: 118] In the last edition of Bubble Watch, we mentioned that the current state of the American is such that Tulsa could lead the conference at 10-1 without notching any win better than a road victory at Temple, or creating the kind of resume you might typically associate with any team that starts the season 10-1 in its own league. Now, after back-to-back losses to SMU and UConn, and with a 3-5 top 100 record, you couldn't blame the committee for wondering just how good the Golden Hurricane really are. Tulsa was already closer to the First Four/cut line mix than either SMU or Cincy. Any more slips and they'll only get closer.
