Topper wrote:Boise, Colorado State, UNLV and Fresno will only be considered for the PAC if they decide to make the jump to 14 teams. It would make a lot of sense to have a presence in Las Vegas, but UNLV is not a highly selective school and I don't get the impression that Stanford, Cal or Washington in particular would care to be in the same conference. The kid who does the Locked on PAC 12 podcast is fairly savvy. He says that there is a 10% chance that there will be no expansion, an 80% chance that the PAC will expand to 12, and a 10% chance that they will go to 14 teams. SDSU and SMU are the only schools that he sees realistically being invited if the league goes to 12 and Colorado and/or Arizona don't bolt for some reason.
If there's questions on the media deal as-is I don't see an appetite for 14. Those other two would only be if they lost 4-6 IMO. Boise makes tv rating sense but the others really don't and the Bronco's come with academics that Stanford & Cal would puke at. UNLV & CSU are among the worst MWC teams in tv ratings so I struggle to see them making sense. Nevada isn't a huge state and they already get Denver as an in-footprint negotiation for network carriage fees on the cable revenue side. I don't see how those make expansion money work unless the PAC has been hit again.
I realistically see only 2 scenarios if they lose nobody.
Stay at ten because the financials say to- like the Big 12 in 2016 which I think is more likely based on who's been reported to be bidding still.
Go to 12 because giving SMU/SDSU lesser shares makes the financials work with the added 13-14 games added to the inventory being monetized efficiently enough. If they have a tv partner paying above X per game for those it makes sense. If they don't and it's a streamer who's trying to push subscriptions or a network who can't give a good enough rate that the inventory isn't assured $X per game they'll likely stand at ten.
SMU's ideal scenario is all ten stay and expand by two.
SMU's greatest odds of an invite IMO is if they lose 2 or more although the destination would lose some of the luster.
