We’ve updated our career records for SEC head coaches from this past season against FBS teams that finished the season with a winning record, which is always one of the best gauges for coaching success.
Obviously, there are exceptions. In some cases, a coach may just be starting out, and there are also situations where he’s come from a smaller school and taken his lumps.
Generally, though, it’s a pretty good measurement of how a coach has fared over the course of his career.
The point is that there's not enough data. 17% sure sounds bad, but you have to find a population to compare to in order to begin to draw any meaningful conclusions.
ponyboy wrote:The point is that there's not enough data. 17% sure sounds bad, but you have to find a population to compare to in order to begin to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Now back to your regularly scheduled lynching.
According to a quick review of historical football scores, June Jones is 20-48 against teams with winning records, approximately 29.5%.
Would have if there was an easy way to do so. But before I do so, let's think through this a minute.
1) Winning teams seem like they should be half the population, right? Not so. "Winning team" doesn't count those teams that go 6-6. So really we've reduced the group of "winning teams" to about 40%
2) For many teams, they would have *been* a winning team -- and therefore counted towards the total of winning teams you beat -- BUT FOR THE FACT THAT YOU BEAT THEM AND KNOCKED THEM OUT OF THE WINNING TEAM CATEGORY BY ONE GAME (and they end up say 6-6 instead of 7-5). So that reduces the population even further. Lets just say 37%.
So the question is something like this: What should the approximate win percent be against the top 37% of teams?
Let's do a hypothetical and put a team right in the middle, where they're winning half those games against winning programs, 50 percent. Well, halving 37%, you'd be at the 82nd or 83rd percentile.
The 82nd percentile would be ranked #22 in the nation.
Conclusion: the #22 team in the nation on average only wins half its games against "winning teams." Only half. Now you can see where the Les Miles and Nick Saban numbers come from. It's a very deceiving statistic.
I'll try to see how another comparable midmajor coach known for taking very losing programs and rebuilding them does against losing teams, but I'm not sure who would be a good comparison.
Let's grant for a moment those are midmajor programs that had to endure a season or two rebuilding with dreadful talent. You're saying those are their records against winning teams? Where'd you get your data?
Let's grant for a moment those are midmajor programs that had to endure a season or two rebuilding with dreadful talent. You're saying those are their records against winning teams? Where'd you get your data?
Pony41 wrote:What we all want to see is steady improvement in the program. Last year a win at TCU and then at home against UCF we were getting a vote or two for Top 25 - signs of improvement, then the program took a step backwards and didn't show up for USM, Tulsa and Houston. Recruiting took a dive last year also.
This year we were not expected to beat Baylor, AT&M and TCU, but we expected to make them competitive games. Losing by 30-40 points does not show improvement over years past.
We all know where the program is at right now, the real question is how much will it improve by the end of the season and where will our recruting stand for the next class?
BTW - we missed a great opportunity to improve interest in SMU Football by not making a close game against Baylor and then at home against ATM. We are actually seeing some marketing done this year but results on the field are not sparking the interest. Imagine if the scores had been different. It will be tough now to get fans into Ford to see a C-USA schedule.
I think we can all agree on this set of observations by pony41. We peaked at TCU/UCF last year and have been mediocre since.
We have only beaten Tulane, Rice, Pitt and SFA since with blowouts against S Miss, Tulsa, Houston, Baylor, and A and M. So it is not just the Baylor and A and M game that has people frustrated. pony 41 observed the other issue, an blown opportunity to maximize the marketing. The record indicates a step back or at least hit a plateau. All we ask is for sustained progress and this will start enticing folks to support us.
An atheist is a guy who watches a Notre Dame-SMU football game and doesn't care who wins. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
Definitely agree that this program has lost the momentum, both on and off the field, that seemed to be building after the TCU and UCF games last year. The Pitt game was nice, but the rest of it has been one setback after another (bad losses, June trying to bail, awesome recruiting class falling apart, Klemm leaving). We've got to find a way to recapture that momentum. A win against TCU would be a nice first step back!
skurtn wrote:Heard of the term, "two steps forward, one step back"? I think our football team is a giant freaking leap forward, with one step back.
Thinking anyone can constantly progress forward is a fool's errand.
Regular season only 2008: 1-11 2009: 7-5 2010: 7-5 2011: 5-1, then 2-4 for total 7-5 2012: 1-3
How is this constant progress forward? I don't think anyone is making that claim. Forget the bowl games: Nevada didn't care, lost to Army at home, and the Pitt game was ridiculous. It was a giant step forward followed by a whole lot of mediocrity. Last year was so promising until we [deleted] all over ourselves thinking we could hang with the big boys. Then we barely beat a 4-8 Rice team at home.
Show me the TWO steps forward, and I'll give you the 3-7 stretch from the 2nd half of 2011 to now. Only problem is I don't see another two steps forward anywhere in the future (FYI: winning C-USA this year is not a step forward). Big East will destroy us.
"In a bacon and egg breakfast the chicken is involved, but the pig is committed. Be that pig." -Brian Billick
