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ojaipony wrote:Maybe I'm missing something. Help clarify if I'm wrong.

Who cares about UCF and SoMiss? SoMiss is not in our division and isn't UCF suspended? (OF COURSE we have to beat them, but can't we still play the CUSA championship game if we lose to them - somiss hasn't even won a single game yet - like Houston, SoMiss is NOT the SoMiss of year's past - this year's team is terrible).

We HAVE to beat Memphis, Rice, and Tulsa and that gets us to 6 wins plus one more game in the CUSA championship game. Tulsa becomes our super bowl if we can beat Memphis (better!) and Rice (not going to be easy). And Tulsa is over-rated and are "run heavy" which feeds into our strength on defense.

I like our chances.

And I will NEVER miss out on a Hawaii Bowl again!

We are in a race with Tulsa for the C-USA West which means we have to win as many C-USA games as possible. They are 4-0 in conference, and we are 2-1. We need to stay no more than one game back of them if we want to play them for the division on November 24th. We play UCF and So Miss. I don't understand how those games aren't important in your mind.

ojaipony wrote:Maybe I'm missing something. Help clarify if I'm wrong.

Who cares about UCF and SoMiss? SoMiss is not in our division and isn't UCF suspended? (OF COURSE we have to beat them, but can't we still play the CUSA championship game if we lose to them - somiss hasn't even won a single game yet - like Houston, SoMiss is NOT the SoMiss of year's past - this year's team is terrible).

We HAVE to beat Memphis, Rice, and Tulsa and that gets us to 6 wins plus one more game in the CUSA championship game. Tulsa becomes our super bowl if we can beat Memphis (better!) and Rice (not going to be easy). And Tulsa is over-rated and are "run heavy" which feeds into our strength on defense.

I like our chances.

And I will NEVER miss out on a Hawaii Bowl again!

Sure we could lose to both So Miss and UCF and make the title game but no 5-3 team has ever made it and it's highly unlikely we'll be the first. Bottom line is we control our own destiny (win out and we're in).

ponyboy wrote:Ok, at issue here is whether we have a home field advantage. (Not whether our golf clapping fans are wearing out their maine lobster print slacks standing up and down after every play). So I pulled UCF data from the last three years as a comparison.

UCF was 15-7 at home for a 68% home win percentage and 9-6 away for a 60% win percentage. The plus percentage at home, then, is 8% for UCF. So there's your standard. 8% bump being at home versus on the road.

As stated above, SMU the last three years was 14-4 at home for a 78% home win percentage and 7-12 away for a 37% win percentage. The "home bump" is 41% for SMU.

I'd say we have an advantage playing at home versus on the road based on this small data set.

UCF was 16-4 at Home and 7-10 Away

They lost to #9 Miami, NCState, So Miss, and Tulsa. Much like SMU's home losses, those are not bad. Quality wins include #15 Houston in 2009, SMU in the 2010 C-USA Championship game, and Boston College in 2011. Not really sure why we are comparing these two schools (UCF-public university with 50,000 undergrads, SMU-private with 7,000 undergrads), but it seems that UCF actually holds a slight edge. I would guess this is due mostly to attendance: based on 2011 data UCF has the 6th highest attendance among non-AQ schools at 39,614/game (87.4% capacity). They are 63rd out of all 120 schools. I would hazard a guess that a large chunk of that is made up of the 50,000 undergrads, which means a raucous crowd. I think it's safe to assume they don't lose home games because of a lack of crowd presence. I would love to get a player or former player's viewpoint on this.

Like I said before, every team has an advantage playing at home. They don't have to travel, they are playing in a stadium in which they practice every single day and are comfortable, they get to use the home locker room, and usually they have the support of the majority of the fans. SMU is lacking in the latter due to apathy and/or lack of enthusiasm from the observers (hesitant to refer to the crowd uniformly as "fans"). SMU plays better at home because they are more comfortable and because the schedule has been fairly easy. Conversely, they have had many road games against good teams in hostile environments such as UCF where they lost in 2008 and 2010. Hopefully this year's team is better equipped to win in Orlando.

Your UCF numbers include games that were neither home nor away for them, ie neutral field games. Remove those from your figures.

The point is that, despite what you said several posts above, we really do seem to play demonstrably better than the average team at home than away, if UCF is a good surrogate for the average. Your point doesn't hold water.

ponyboy wrote:Your UCF numbers include games that were neither home nor away for them, ie neutral field games. Remove those from your figures.

The point is that, despite what you said several posts above, we really do seem to play demonstrably better than the average team at home than away, if UCF is a good surrogate for the average. Your point doesn't hold water.

They played a total of 39 games from 2009-2011 (16-4 at home, 7-10 away, 1-1 neutral). I'm tired of arguing this.

EVERYONE PLAYS BETTER AT HOME.

Statistically in the last three years SMU has done well because of a soft schedule.

Go back several more years and the overall record shows they are a bad home team. This is because they don't have a home crowd which feeds them energy. Over and out.

SMUSIC 07 wrote:

ponyboy wrote:Your UCF numbers include games that were neither home nor away for them, ie neutral field games. Remove those from your figures.

The point is that, despite what you said several posts above, we really do seem to play demonstrably better than the average team at home than away, if UCF is a good surrogate for the average. Your point doesn't hold water.

They played a total of 39 games from 2009-2011 (16-4 at home, 7-10 away, 1-1 neutral). I'm tired of arguing this.

EVERYONE PLAYS BETTER AT HOME.

Statistically in the last three years SMU has done well because of a soft schedule.

Go back several more years and the overall record shows they are a bad home team. This is because they don't have a home crowd which feeds them energy. Over and out.

Go back several more years and the overall record shows they are a terrible team period! We lost at home and we lost on the road and that had nothing to do with the crowd!

mustangxc wrote:Go back several more years and the overall record shows they are a terrible team period! We lost at home and we lost on the road and that had nothing to do with the crowd!

If the crowd has nothing to do with it, why does Margus ask for more noise on big 3rd or 4th down plays? Is it possible that the defense feeds off of this? Is it possible that our defenses in the stink years may have faired better if the crowd were louder and rowdier? I think so, and since we averaged more points per game in both of those years than we are this year, I'm pretty sure that would have meant more wins especially when you look at how close some of those games were.

don't kid yourself about a home "crowd" not having anything to do with how tough a team is on their home filed/court. Emotion is a huge part of these games and if you've ever played football/bball, you know how teams can feed off the energy of a supportive crowd.

I'm not arguing that the crowd cannot help a team win, but SMUSIC 07 said that several years ago we were a bad home team. I am saying we were a bad team period. That has nothing to do with the crowd. A good team can win a squeaker with the aid of the crowd. No home field advantage will help you beat a team like Texas A&M that thoroughly dominated us. We were clearly outclassed on the field. Not even the best fans in the world would prevent that loss. It is ridiculous that I even have to clear this up!

mustangxc wrote:I'm not arguing that the crowd cannot help a team win, but SMUSIC 07 said that several years ago we were a bad home team. I am saying we were a bad team period. That has nothing to do with the crowd. A good team can win a squeaker with the aid of the crowd. No home field advantage will help you beat a team like Texas A&M that thoroughly dominated us. We were clearly outclassed on the field. Not even the best fans in the world would prevent that loss. It is ridiculous that I even have to clear this up!

Dude, you need to learn how to read in context. SMU was terrible in 2007, but we lost to both UTEP and Tulane by a field goal in OT and Rice by 1...all at home. I never said a good home crowd would help us beat Aggie; however, there's a good chance it may have helped in those 2007 squeakers, and it will sure help when we play Southern Miss and Tulsa later this year.

Thanks for the back-up CP.

I previously said we could afford to lose a game if Tulsa loses a game, but that would be incorrect. They could lose to Houston who would finish 7-1 in C-USA if they won out.

WIN EM ALL 'STANGS!!!

SMUSIC 07 wrote:

mustangxc wrote:I'm not arguing that the crowd cannot help a team win, but SMUSIC 07 said that several years ago we were a bad home team. I am saying we were a bad team period. That has nothing to do with the crowd. A good team can win a squeaker with the aid of the crowd. No home field advantage will help you beat a team like Texas A&M that thoroughly dominated us. We were clearly outclassed on the field. Not even the best fans in the world would prevent that loss. It is ridiculous that I even have to clear this up!

Dude, you need to learn how to read in context. SMU was terrible in 2007, but we lost to both UTEP and Tulane by a field goal in OT and Rice by 1...all at home. I never said a good home crowd would help us beat Aggie; however, there's a good chance it may have helped in those 2007 squeakers, and it will sure help when we play Southern Miss and Tulsa later this year.

Thanks for the back-up CP.

Context is we sucked and terrible teams find a way to lose games.

I just wanted to let everyone know that my prediction of SMU winning CUSA was in light of UCF being declared ineligible for the CUSA title. Since UCF has now been declared eligible I do not feel my feet should be held to the fire regarding my prediction.

SMU 86 wrote:I just wanted to let everyone know that my prediction of SMU winning CUSA was in light of UCF being declared ineligible for the CUSA title. Since UCF has now been declared eligible I do not feel my feet should be held to the fire regarding my prediction.

New prediction ASAP

SMU 86 wrote:I just wanted to let everyone know that my prediction of SMU winning CUSA was in light of UCF being declared ineligible for the CUSA title. Since UCF has now been declared eligible I do not feel my feet should be held to the fire regarding my prediction.

So when we win I will not credit you for being a visionary lol!