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SMU_Alum11 wrote:In addition to the stuff I listed below, I thought this was interesting not only about our conference but our particular division. Credit to Stallion for record calling that we would be lucky to be 7-5. I'm actually quite shocked at how strong our division is given that UCF and USF are both in the East division. Now take it for what you will. The ACC is probably little understated given their bottoms are pretty bad, but still pretty interesting to see this on a top 12 divisions. The next best part is on average we are measurable distance away from the next G5.

Sagarin by conference by division:

1 BIG TEN-EAST - 84.53
2 PAC-12(NORTH) - 80.22
3 BIG 12 - 78.50
4 ACC-ATLANTIC - 78.38
5 PAC-12(SOUTH) - 75.33
6 ACC-COASTAL - 74.78
7 AAC WEST - 74.29
8 SEC-WEST - 72.60
9 BIG TEN-WEST - 71.32
10 SEC-EAST - 69.98
11 AAC EAST - 62.53
12 MWC-MOUNTAIN - 60.45

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

SMU_Alum11 wrote:We are talking about probabilities and not effort. Big difference. Neither I or Nacho are saying to the team, hey guys just go ahead and call off the game. No, but from a fan perspective and from our performance against Houston, yeah they're not winnable games with our defense and OL.

From a rankings/stat perspective (Sagarin),

#72 - SMU (68.32pts)

Rest of the schedule:

#100 - Cincy (60.60) - Should win this game but that's why we are saying it's a huge game (5-2)
#98 - Tulsa (61.56) - Must win game as well and fortunately at home (6-2)
#21 - UCF (82.10) - Hence why Nacho and I are penciling as a fan as a loss despite being at home (6-3)
#53 - Navy (73.34) - Again, it's going to be a huge task on the road. (6-4)
#50 - Memphis (73.85) - Same as above. (6-5)
#82 - Tulane (65.16) - Being at home, we might have a shot but I think their stock will continue to go up putting us even. (7-5)

For the sake of seeing where our wins came from:

Beaten
#217 - SFA (33.78) @ home
#107 - NTCC (59.81) @ home
#97 - Arkansas State (61.84) @ home
#141 - UCONN (51.59) @ home

This is why we are at the moment looking at 6-6 or 7-5 if we can handle Tulane. Houston

I think you copied that from a FIFY post on the AAC message board because that's not what the original source document says if you click through. I saw the same post too and figured out it was incorrect. Flip AACWest below SECEast-its still interesting our division is so close to a few P5 divisions

I’m not on the AAC message board. Ponyfans is good enough for me at this point. I just know a few people were critical about ESPN power index and told me Sagarin was a better measurement. I tried the link I posted and it doesn’t work which is weird. Also to your point the numbers are different now. At least the message remains the same. I’ll repost the revised rankings for those like me who are PFers for life, lol.

I would have expected us to be behind both SEC divisions but ahead of one of the Atlantic Coastal Coalition divisions.

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 81.34 82.32 ( 1) 7 81.61 ( 1)
  2 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 81.06 80.62 ( 2) 7 80.94 ( 2)
  3 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 80.04 78.99 ( 4) 6 79.76 ( 3)
  4 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 79.24 79.29 ( 3) 7 79.25 ( 4)
  5 BIG 12 (A) = 78.61 77.46 ( 6) 10 78.34 ( 5)
  6 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 77.37 77.66 ( 5) 7 77.60 ( 6)
  7 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 76.59 77.29 ( 7) 6 77.11 ( 7)
  8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.88 75.21 ( 7 75.12 (
  9 SEC-EAST (A) = 73.74 74.33 ( 9) 7 73.93 ( 9)
  10 AAC WEST (A) = 70.18 69.98 ( 10) 6 70.02 ( 10)
  11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 66.77 67.57 ( 11) 6 67.44 ( 11)
  12 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 66.17 67.14 ( 12) 4 65.72 ( 12)
  13 AAC EAST (A) = 64.17 64.83 ( 13) 6 64.36 ( 13)
  14 MAC-WEST (A) = 63.19 62.58 ( 14) 6 62.82 ( 14)
  15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 60.13 59.04 ( 16) 10 59.76 ( 15)
  16 MWC-WEST (A) = 58.59 59.29 ( 15) 6 58.77 ( 16)
  17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 57.21 55.96 ( 18) 7 56.47 ( 18)
  18 MAC-EAST (A) = 57.01 56.25 ( 17) 6 56.51 ( 17)
  19 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 56.54 55.77 ( 19) 7 56.00 ( 19)
  20 SUN BELT (A) = 55.09 55.26 ( 20) 12 55.21 ( 20)

Stallion beat me to it. I do remember when I looked at it originally UCF was like #6 so they must have made adjustments to the rankings after I posted.

Proof we are in the best division in all of college football other than the self-appointed power five

Biggest key after bye week: improved health.

SoCal_Pony wrote:Last time (I believe) SMU won a conference game on the road vs a team with a winning record.

Hint :

LAST CENTURY

Wasn't the win over ECU last year a road game?

Hanging Chad wrote:Wasn't the win over ECU last year a road game?

Yes but they didn't finish with a winning record (3-9).

At TCU, 2011.

ponyboy wrote:At TCU, 2011.

That was not a conference game.

SoCal_Pony wrote:Last time (I believe) SMU won a conference game on the road vs a team with a winning record.

Hint :

LAST CENTURY

You make it sound like it is something to be proud of...the fact SMU hasn’t won on the road in conference. The football program 1991-2007 was pretty much an FCS level program so what did you expect?

Was the TCU game "winnable"? I believe we would have been up on them in 4th. If we had any sense to play d on Hail Mary play.

In my book, that game was winnable. Against a Top 10 team. On the road.

So are these "Top 25" games "winnable"?

YES

sbsmith wrote:

Hanging Chad wrote:Wasn't the win over ECU last year a road game?

Yes but they didn't finish with a winning record (3-9).

Didn't we beat ECU on road in AAC championship game?

No-we've never played in AAC Championship game

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