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If we go 13-5 in conference, beating Cincy or WSU in the process and only losing 2 other conference games, then I don't think it matters greatly what other teams do. Tall order but I think we can do it

I would agree with this as long as those two others aren't to terrible teams. From the first few conference games for each team, I think Cincy/Wichita/SMU/Houston have separated themselves and UCF will join that group when they get Taylor back. Temple wouldn't be a terrible loss just because their OOC strength of schedule is so solid, but they have a huge mountain to climb to get back into tourney consideration. Anyone else would be a bad loss, and looks like UNI is heading towards that category as well.

RI Stang wrote:I would agree with this as long as those two others aren't to terrible teams. From the first few conference games for each team, I think Cincy/Wichita/SMU/Houston have separated themselves and UCF will join that group when they get Taylor back. Temple wouldn't be a terrible loss just because their OOC strength of schedule is so solid, but they have a huge mountain to climb to get back into tourney consideration. Anyone else would be a bad loss, and looks like UNI is heading towards that category as well.

I agree that 5 teams in the AAC have separated themselves assuming UCF. However, would Tulane on the road be a bad loss? They have a decent record.

In my opinion, yes - Tulane currently 137 in KenPom and took a bad home loss yesterday to Tulsa. Tulane has virtually no home court advantage either.

Even though I don't think Tulane is bad (Frazier had the off night of off nights yesterday) we should definitely beware of anyone outside the top 100 as far as bad losses go

PonyFan32 wrote:Even though I don't think Tulane is bad (Frazier had the off night of off nights yesterday) we should definitely beware of anyone outside the top 100 as far as bad losses go

Agreed. And let me clarify - I think Tulane is MUCH improved and won't be a cake walk. But also know how this works - the committee isn't watching every game start to finish. It's a numbers game and they will evaluate based on the numbers come March. Sub-100 losses are less than ideal no matter how good we think the team might be. Unfortunately it's looking like we will already have one in Northern Iowa. With how the committee has treated the AAC in the past few years, we don't need to test fate and pick up any others.

With that said, it's been clear the last few years that top 25 wins, especially on road or neutral site, more than outweigh bad losses (see Vandy last year). The Arizona win was monstrous for our hopes, and just one win vs Wichita or Cincy will also be a huge boost.

And we have had a tough time against Tulane lately.

If we play like we did against USF in the first half, I’ll be nervous. While i know Tulane is not a rowdy arena, I know we struggle on the road. We couldn’t put away fairly mediocre teams on neutral site. While we didn’t have McMurray at that time, it still worries me: our road record is 1-3.

Our players wanted to be at Moody on New Years Eve about as much as our fans. I'm proud they picked it up so well so its not likely to be a mental thing in future games

Stallion wrote:Our players wanted to be at Moody on New Years Eve about as much as our fans. I'm proud they picked it up so well so its not likely to be a mental thing in future games

Amen to that, 2nd half was a blast.

This team displays all the characteristics of a young, inexperienced, talented team, without an absolute go to guy. We are easily top 3 in conference and I think a solid top 30 team nationally talent wise. Our youth and a lack of an absolute go to guy when we need a basket to break an opponent's runs means we will have disjointed games. Pretty much every team in the AAC with the exception of ECU and USF have enough talent on their roster that if we don't play well they can beat us. It is really easy to not play well on the road. If we would have beaten WKY I'd feel like we had enough breathing rooms to allow for a conference slip but I think we've made it where we can't slip or we risk getting NCAA'd come selection Sunday.

It’s coming together well. Next task: show they can win on the road.

It's tough to say we don't have a go to guy since we haven't really been tested since McMurray became eligible.

But I also worry a little less about having that go to scorer because we have multiple guys who can get in the lane at will, and multiple other guys who are lights out from 3. Not saying it isn't important but I think we make up for it some in other ways

PonyFan32 wrote:It's tough to say we don't have a go to guy since we haven't really been tested since McMurray became eligible.

But I also worry a little less about having that go to scorer because we have multiple guys who can get in the lane at will, and multiple other guys who are lights out from 3. Not saying it isn't important but I think we make up for it some in other ways

Yes. The way I see it is we have 5 guys capable of the last shot. That is an opposing coaches nightmare.

What I mean by go to guy, is a guy that can take the ball generate a high quality shot for himself and he will likely make it. Think last year, whenever we needed a basket Sterling would take the ball ath the top of the key, drive to create space and hit a pull up jumper. McMurry has skills like that but he often generates a bad shot as often as a good shot one on one. Shake doesn't finish off the dribble at a particularly high clip. Gu and foster can't create their own, and Chagois doesn't have those go to post moves yet.