Info on T Cell / COVID business

[Insane_Pony_Posse]

the mask will remind people not to put any table germs on their nose.

malonish it's been a major lifestyle adjustment for me not picking boogers out of my nose!

[East Coast Mustang]

Wear a mask if you're around people. It's an extremely minimal impact to yourself but if everyone actually did it we'd have no need for a vaccine or herd, what was the word, mentality? Oops, immunity. Instead we have people nationwide who put party over evidence and safety.

ItΓÇÖs too bad Justice Ginsburg couldnΓÇÖt follow this simple advice a few weeks ago. HereΓÇÖs your link: https://dcist.com/story/20/09/01/rbg-ou ... ronavirus/

[ALEX LIFESON]

the mask will remind people not to put any table germs on their nose.

malonish it's been a major lifestyle adjustment for me not picking boogers out of my nose!

[JasonB]

One of the theories holds that once we get to a point where about 20% of the population is infected, the virus runs out of host material. Remembering that death, naturally, comes a few weeks after infection, the following two graphs that I created from data at covidtracking.com are rather interesting:





We seem to have hit a peak in early August and have since been trending downward.

The first graph is based off of an assumption that a high percentage of people have had the disease and not been tested. However, I would point out that people who have reason to actually believe they have the virus test positive 10% of the time. Testing the general populace would result in a much lower percentage positivity. Trying to makea case that 20% of Texas has had it when we the positivity rate of the most probable people is well under than threshold isn't very logical.

We hit a peak because we instituted mask policy and shut down bars on July 2. positive cases have been falling ever since, and a month later the deaths started dropping.

This week we saw a small rise in cases, most probably because kids are going back to school. We will see if that lasts.

[JasonB]

This is what I mentioned several weeks ago and seems to be holding true. Weather or not T-cells provide immunity or just a heavy resistance - it has the same effect - herd immunity when exposure to the virus reaches around 20%. Look at every graph in every geography around the country and world - they look virtually the same. When it hits close to 20% exposure it heads back down. Ours in DFW also looks the same and is now very low after a peak back in August.

Masks might help - so I wear one. But they also might have very little impact. The downward curve may just be the virus running its course like they all do. The most neurotic masked up state in the union (California) had their run up while everyone wore masks. So many are just so invested in the fear because that's the kind of person they are - they cant let go. Those are the people that invent all kinds of "lingering effects" which are completely conjecture since this is 6 months old. Others like the drama due to a political cycle (you can tell who - they bring it up constantly). That is probably why the media reports only the sensational - when is the last time you saw the DMN with a headline - "COVID cases in Dallas county down by 90%"

The world is opening back up and quickly - organizations who don't realize this are costing themselves dearly for no reason - as the Big 10 just realized. And its not just money - but they are costing others (students) their experiences and lifelong memories, over a disease with a 99.7% recovery rate - even if you catch it. I personally would go to any large gathering right now with no concerns - its just not that prevalent any longer.

1) t cells impact severity, not immunity. It would not cause herd immunity at 20%.
2) all countries shut things down after infections rise, and reopen after they drop. That is why we hit peaks.
3) I would encourage everyone to take a peak outside of the US. Cases are rising again in Italy, Spain, Germany, UK etc. They were shut down all summer and then opened at the end, and they are seeing the numbers creep back up. It would be awesome if 20% was a magic mark, but unfortunately, there is a very low probability that it would actually happen.
4) One of the reasons to doubt the magic 20% mark is that early on in the pandemic, if you recall, there were several mass transmission events. Think about the church choir in Washington, for example. Or the LSU football team. If the 20% number were an actual thing, then you wouldn't have events where a significant percentage of participants contracted the disease.

[ponyboy]

Don't know about the other European nations, but Italy's interesting. Yes, around the first part of August they started to slide back upwards in terms of new cases, but as of yet there's been no corresponding increase in mortality since they leveled off to about 15-20 deaths per day around July 4th. At least yet. Maybe we'll see the mortality figure creep materially upwards. I pray that's not the case.

[JasonB]

Don't know about the other European nations, but Italy's interesting. Yes, around the first part of August they started to slide back upwards in terms of new cases, but as of yet there's been no corresponding increase in mortality since they leveled off to about 15-20 deaths per day around July 4th. At least yet. Maybe we'll see the mortality figure creep materially upwards. I pray that's not the case.

Yep, it will be interesting to see in all of those countries. I haven't tried to look at hospitalizations to see if they are going up in a corresponding manner. I suspect we will find that the older folks are staying home and that the hospitalization and positive test age are much younger than they were in the original outbreak, similar to what we had in Texas in July/August. Some of the countries are starting re reimpose restrictions though because the numbers have crept up a bit. The good news is that they are reacting early. But we probably won't see any extremes.

What is interesting, though, to me, is that in Germany they ran an experiment with an outdoor concert to try and determine how much spread they would get if people are together, but outside, and then they went ahead with a plan to allow limited crowds into Bundesliga games. Germans being Germans, I would guess that means they found that spread in outdoor environments is not high risk. So, they are opening up to a certain percentage capacity, will see how it goes, and if the numbers are still under control they will raise the percentage until they see a problem develop.

[malonish]

Wear a mask if you're around people. It's an extremely minimal impact to yourself but if everyone actually did it we'd have no need for a vaccine or herd, what was the word, mentality? Oops, immunity. Instead we have people nationwide who put party over evidence and safety.

ItΓÇÖs too bad Justice Ginsburg couldnΓÇÖt follow this simple advice a few weeks ago. HereΓÇÖs your link: https://dcist.com/story/20/09/01/rbg-ou ... ronavirus/

Red herring bait, but here's the bite.

A) Yeah should have worn the mask. In photos that I could find (original tweet removed) she's behind a lectern and socially distanced. Now what's your argument? Did she die of COVID? Got a source? All the other people still died of covid and more will die because of people like you. Your attempt at a gotcha doesn't have any bite.

B) Outdoors is less risky than say... hypothetically... an indoor arena in Oklahoma where no one wore masks. All guidance, including Gov. Abbott's, says meet outdoors when possible and wear masks while indoors.

Next poorly implemented Cain-ism please.

[malonish]

the mask will remind people not to put any table germs on their nose.

malonish it's been a major lifestyle adjustment for me not picking boogers out of my nose!

Now I wash my hands before, not just after, and I root around with a tissue or paper towel when diggin for gold.

[ponyboy]

Updated data for the six weeks from 8/15-9/19. Source: CDC

[JasonB]

Show the graph where they break the total deaths down by cause, so that we can see whether covid is the 3rd leading cause of death for that time period, or like the 7th.

[ponyboy]

Sorry to cut off the left side of the graph, but I had to do so to fit on the screen. Each horizontal line = 50 deaths. Also, before anyone goes there, I'm not suggesting there will or will not be a "second wave."

[ponyboy]

Show the graph where they break the total deaths down by cause, so that we can see whether covid is the 3rd leading cause of death for that time period, or like the 7th.

I haven't seen that, and I don't think we're going to for a while.

[ponyboy]

Actually, I did find some data on the CDC site and created this pie chart. Note that the data did not include accidents or suicide. But here you go.

[EastStang]

And now the curveball.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-mutation-emerges-that-may-bypass-mask-wearing-hand-washing-protections

Not more lethal, but more durable.