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On his blog on ESPN. Requires of subscription. SMU is his sleeper to go to the BCS. Although he admits 10-2 is more likely.

that's a bold prediction...love it

I think you mean 2011

Good Pub for sure --- funny how these guys fly by the seat of their pants. Depending on OOC, I would say 2014 looks more realistic. Too many good teams on the schedule and on the road in 2011. "we are a recruiting class and a half away"

I'm filing this week's mailbag from chilly Indianapolis where I'm covering the NFL combine. Let's get right to it.

From @akosnitzky: I know it's only spring, but who do you see as the sleeper team to make it to a BCS game this year?

My picks for a sleeper to get to a BCS bowl game and a sleeper to make the BCS title game follow different guidelines. The latter, to me, usually comes from a pool of teams that figure to be in the preseason top-15 or top-20. The former doesn't even crack the top-25.

The UCF Knights, who finished the year very strong and return the Conference USA freshman of the year in quarterback Jeff Godfrey, was going to be my pick. However, they do lose a lot of good players on defense, including top defensive lineman Bruce Miller.

So instead of going with UCF, I'll throw out an even bigger dark horse to watch in 2011: the SMU Mustangs. This is a team that is going to be really interesting to keep an eye on.

June Jones, who went 1-11 in his first season there, then 8-5 two seasons ago and 7-7 in 2010, has a talented, maturing bunch coming back, with 18 starters returning. The entire offensive line returns, as does the defensive line. Better still, Jones' triggerman, Kyle Padron, the latest Southlake Carroll High School quarterback product, is back for his third season in Jones' quarterback-friendly system. The 6-foot-4 junior completed 59 percent of his passes for 3,828 yards in 2010, boasting an impressive 31-14 TD-INT ratio.

The best thing that happened for SMU last season was the emergence of a ground attack. They averaged nearly five yards per carry, which is almost a full yard more than they did in 2009. Rising junior Zach Line, a 235-pounder with nimble feet, had a breakout year. The Michigan native ran for almost 1,500 yards, and in non-league games, which included matchups vs. the TCU Horned Frogs and teams from the Big 12 and Pac-10, he averaged almost eight yards per rush.

On defense, big-play linebacker Ja'Gared Davis (15 TFLs, 9 sacks) is also back. Plus, Jones just landed a class that had 11 three-star recruits, led by Los Angeles-area defensive end Davon Moreland, who picked the Mustangs over basically half of the Pac-12.

If I'm going to be realistic, this is probably more like a 10-2 caliber team that falls a bit short of a BCS bowl berth. However, the Mustangs definitely have a shot at being this year's BCS-buster.

Conference USA has never had a team make a BCS game, and this year I think the league has three teams that have a decent chance: SMU, UCF, and the Houston Cougars. The Mustangs' non-conference slate gives them the opportunity to generate some buzz because they open on the road against the Texas A&M Aggies, which figures to be a preseason top-15 team, and then they'll visit TCU later on in the season. Fortunately for Jones, they get UCF at home coming off a bye week. If the Mustangs can somehow make it though their schedule unscathed -- a big "if," no doubt -- they'd merit a long look at a BCS bowl.

All of that said, I wouldn't bet on the Mustangs getting out of College Station with a W, but if they can, watch out. Even if they do open 0-1, I expect them to be a top-20 team in 2011.

Thanks Nick

"Winning" - Chuck Sheen.

Although it would be fun to see SMU in a BCS game. I'd root for you.

You won't get there because the at-large bid will go to either TCU or Boise (likely Boise next year). And you'd get creamed because they'd set you up against someone like Alabama or Oklahoma to protect their system. But I'd root for you.

Undercover Frog wrote:

Man, if that ain't the pot calling the kettle black.

If we were in a position to get a bid, TCU getting the bid wouldn't be a issue because we would have already beat them in order to be there on the first place.

Junior wrote:If we were in a position to get a bid, TCU getting the bid wouldn't be a issue because we would have already beat them in order to be there on the first place.

good point

Dwan wrote:On his blog on ESPN. Requires of subscription. SMU is his sleeper to go to the BCS. Although he admits 10-2 is more likely.

Interesting prediction, Padron would have to play out of his mind in 2011 for SMU to even hit 10 wins let alone bust the BCS. The schedule isn't set up for a big run.

Bold prediction considering we have to play at A&M, at TCU (even with many starters leaving, will still be a very tough W to achieve in Fort Worth), UCF, and away at Houston with a returning Case Keenum.

Super bold prediction, definitely not happening next year, that's for sure.