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know this was posted earlier, but couldn't find the thread

For the most recently concluded NFL draft, if you go back in time to the 2008 Rivals 5* recruits (there were 30 of them).

1) Terrelle Pryor - 2 BCS wins in 3 seasons at Ohio State
2) Da'Quan Bowers - many thought would be the top pick in this years NFL draft before injury
3) Mike Adams - possible 1st round selection next year
4) Julio Jones - Top Ten pick
5) Patrick Peterson - Top Ten pick
6) AJ Green - Top Ten pick
7) Matt Kalil - next year probable Top Ten pick
8 Michael Brewster - possible 1st round selection next year
9) Blaine Gabbert - Top Ten pick
10) Tyron Smith - Top Ten pick
11) Kyle Rudolph - top TE selected in last years' draft
12) Jonathan Baldwin - 1st round selection
13) Michael Floyd - possible 1st round selection next year

5 of the Top 10 choices in this years' draft + Da'Quan Bowers + Matt Kalil.

We are talking about grading 17 and 18-year old kids. How anyone cannot be impressed with that track record is beyond me.

really grading 16-17 year olds from every small town and big city in 50 states. I'm more impressed recruiting services can do that than the performance of NFL teams in the NFL draft that has about 1000 times less schools to canvass and more physically mature athletes to analysis and who have played against more uniform competition

Wonder what % of the 5 stars graduate.

It has been proven repeatedly on the macro level that the Rivals ranking system is as strong an indicator as exists in predicting the future performance of high school football players.

SoCal_Pony wrote:know this was posted earlier, but couldn't find the thread

For the most recently concluded NFL draft, if you go back in time to the 2008 Rivals 5* recruits (there were 30 of them).

1) Terrelle Pryor - 2 BCS wins in 3 seasons at Ohio State
2) Da'Quan Bowers - many thought would be the top pick in this years NFL draft before injury
3) Mike Adams - possible 1st round selection next year
4) Julio Jones - Top Ten pick
5) Patrick Peterson - Top Ten pick
6) AJ Green - Top Ten pick
7) Matt Kalil - next year probable Top Ten pick
8 Michael Brewster - possible 1st round selection next year
9) Blaine Gabbert - Top Ten pick
10) Tyron Smith - Top Ten pick
11) Kyle Rudolph - top TE selected in last years' draft
12) Jonathan Baldwin - 1st round selection
13) Michael Floyd - possible 1st round selection next year

5 of the Top 10 choices in this years' draft + Da'Quan Bowers + Matt Kalil.

We are talking about grading 17 and 18-year old kids. How anyone cannot be impressed with that track record is beyond me.

Joe Lunardi scoffs at Rivals

It's bad. It's just the least bad.

Stallion wrote:really grading 16-17 year olds from every small town and big city in 50 states. I'm more impressed recruiting services can do that than the performance of NFL teams in the NFL draft that has about 1000 times less schools to canvass and more physically mature athletes to analysis and who have played against more uniform competition

According to ESPN broadcast statistics; 51% of all NFL first round picks are out of the league by the end of the 3d year; 23 players in the last Pro Bowl game were undrafted free agents.

if true-(what time period?)that'a different category than their high school ratings which is what we are talking about. That shows NFL Scouts may not be doing their job. I gurantee you a bunch also were probably non-qualifiers, flunkees, behavior issues who went through a more non-traditional route to the NFL. There are a lot more of those than people realize

PoconoPony wrote:

Stallion wrote:really grading 16-17 year olds from every small town and big city in 50 states. I'm more impressed recruiting services can do that than the performance of NFL teams in the NFL draft that has about 1000 times less schools to canvass and more physically mature athletes to analysis and who have played against more uniform competition

According to ESPN broadcast statistics; 51% of all NFL first round picks are out of the league by the end of the 3d year; 23 players in the last Pro Bowl game were undrafted free agents.

Have to temper the pro bowl assertion as about half of the team are replacements for people who were "injured" or playing in the Super Bowl.

This is simple statistics 101, folks. While it is fraught with holes, there is no doubt that the best macro indicator we have are the recruiting rankings -- particularly for the five star types who are under a microscope from day one. There is no other argument.