Page 1 of 1
+9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:25 am
by ponyfanman
At the beginning of the week it was +11 and was told by everyone it would be 17 or 18 by week end. While I love it going in the opposite direction, does anyone know why the change. Just curious.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:30 am
by ericdickerson4life
I don't. Easier to make money with the line going the other way. Means money line becomes more valuable.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:35 am
by PSCA
May also have something to do with Baylor's starting NT going down this week ... on what is already considered a questionable "D" and D-Line.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:36 am
by BCS STANG
Baylor injury, News stories on Gilbert's progress, Volume increases as we get closer to game time...A number of things.
This is going to be a high dollar game because of it's visibility on Sunday. I think it stays at 9 but may bounce back to +9.5 by tomorrow night. The good news is that the majority of bets have been coming on our side. The bad news is that Vegas doesn't see it that way.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:43 am
by ponyboy
There's some interesting research out there as to exactly how accurate a predictor the line is. Remember that Vegas isn't setting forth a prediction, it's trying to maximize the amount of bets. So hypothetically if you have a huge school with big pocket alums playing a small relatively poor school, the big school gets an automatic bump in the line independent of the relative talents of the two teams.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:04 am
by bubba pony
As I understand the betting line is to stimulate even money amounts for each school. So if too much money is betting on SMU at 17 points underdog the line drops to 9 points underdog with more people betting on Baylor. By game time the same amount of money is bet on each team with Las Vegas making a commission on handling the money. Sort of like buying stocks, someone buys, someone sells, the brokerage doesn't care if the stock goes up or down they just handle the transaction.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:12 am
by ponyfanman
Good stuff...thanks guys. See ya in Waco!
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:50 am
by PSCA
WOW, forget what I said ... I defer to my investment advisors ponyboy and bubba pony.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:54 am
by ponyboy
No, what you said certainly might be a factor.
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:10 pm
by Pony ^
Lots of folks taking SMU with that line..and I don't blame them
Re: +9
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 3:55 pm
by ponyboy
Only if the line is going down. Otherwise, there's exactly the same money taking the other side too.