For the Gamblers
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:51 pm
(This is not a tout for any service, just thought some people might be interested).
Right Angle Sports (RAS) just released a play on the over 58 for SMU-A&M. It immediately moved up to 60.5. I hope they're counting on some of that scoring to be done by the Mustangs.
And here is Dr. Bob's analysis:
Texas A&M (-12.5) 31 SMU 21
Over/Under Total: 58.0
12:30 PM Pacific Time, Saturday, 15-Sep-2012
Texas A&M lost a close game to Florida last week and they may be due for a letdown after the excitement of last week’s SEC opener. The Aggies actually apply to a negative 34-88-3 ATS first road game situation while SMU applies to a 143-58 ATS momentum situation based on last week’s 52-0 win over SF Austin. However, that win was not nearly as dominating as the score would indicate, as the Mustangs only averaged 4.7 yards per play while allowing division 1AA SFA to average 4.7 yppl. SMU won big because of an unbelievable 10 turnovers committed by SFA. That’s not a typo.
SMU’s offense is really struggling with former Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert at quarterback. Gilbert’s numbers at Texas were bad (5.6 yards per pass play on 560 pass plays against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and they’ve been even worse in two games with SMU. Gilbert has averaged just 4.9 yppp on 97 pass plays in two games against worse than average pass defenses and Mustangs’ star RB Zach Line doesn’t look like the version he was the two years before he got injured near the end of last season. Line is averaging just 4.4 ypr after running for over 2700 yards at 6.0 ypr the last two seasons. It’s tough to say whether that’s just variance or if Line is really not going to be as good as he was before his injury.
Despite the strong situations favor SMU, I’m only going to lean with the Mustangs since my ratings favor the Aggies by 15 ├é┬╜ points.
Matchup Stats Are Not Available
Texas A&M: SU: 7-6-0, ATS: 4-9-0
Right Angle Sports (RAS) just released a play on the over 58 for SMU-A&M. It immediately moved up to 60.5. I hope they're counting on some of that scoring to be done by the Mustangs.
And here is Dr. Bob's analysis:
Texas A&M (-12.5) 31 SMU 21
Over/Under Total: 58.0
12:30 PM Pacific Time, Saturday, 15-Sep-2012
Texas A&M lost a close game to Florida last week and they may be due for a letdown after the excitement of last week’s SEC opener. The Aggies actually apply to a negative 34-88-3 ATS first road game situation while SMU applies to a 143-58 ATS momentum situation based on last week’s 52-0 win over SF Austin. However, that win was not nearly as dominating as the score would indicate, as the Mustangs only averaged 4.7 yards per play while allowing division 1AA SFA to average 4.7 yppl. SMU won big because of an unbelievable 10 turnovers committed by SFA. That’s not a typo.
SMU’s offense is really struggling with former Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert at quarterback. Gilbert’s numbers at Texas were bad (5.6 yards per pass play on 560 pass plays against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and they’ve been even worse in two games with SMU. Gilbert has averaged just 4.9 yppp on 97 pass plays in two games against worse than average pass defenses and Mustangs’ star RB Zach Line doesn’t look like the version he was the two years before he got injured near the end of last season. Line is averaging just 4.4 ypr after running for over 2700 yards at 6.0 ypr the last two seasons. It’s tough to say whether that’s just variance or if Line is really not going to be as good as he was before his injury.
Despite the strong situations favor SMU, I’m only going to lean with the Mustangs since my ratings favor the Aggies by 15 ├é┬╜ points.
Matchup Stats Are Not Available
Texas A&M: SU: 7-6-0, ATS: 4-9-0