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Sagarin has a formula that predicts wins and losses based on team ranking and a bump (right now three points) for the home team. Using that formula, here's the rest of our schedule:

@UCF -7
USM 19
@Rice 5
Tulsa EVEN

If true, that would put us at 6-5 going into the Tulsa game where Sagarin predicts a toss up.

I'll take it.

We play Tulsa tough all the time. Plus at home. But I'd rather beat UCF first

BTW, just looked at Tulsa and they have a pretty good chance of losing two of their next three. At Fayetteville will probably be an L. And they have UCF, though in Tulsa.

does Sagarin give their overall win/loss % of accuracy?

I don't know. Having correlation coefficient flashbacks from that Stats 101 class at SMU.

ponyboy wrote:BTW, just looked at Tulsa and they have a pretty good chance of losing two of their next three. At Fayetteville will probably be an L. And they have UCF, though in Tulsa.

The Beloved Razorbacks are not the team they have been in the past. They lack a certain level of athleticism on Defense this year. Tulsa could very well beat them (just as ULM, Rutgers and Old Miss, A$M & Bama did).

Yeah, I think Arkansas would only be something like five point favorites. Probably a Tulsa loss but certainly far from guaranteed.

ponyte- I wonder what Frank Broyles thinks of arkys downfall the last few years.

redpony wrote:ponyte- I wonder what Frank Broyles thinks of arkys downfall the last few years.

Not to be too flippant, but who gives a rat's front door what Frank thinks? The Beloved Razorbacks’ faithful are crestfallen this year. They actually believed after losing their coach they would somehow beat Bama and LSU to play for the BSC championship. Some irrational logic about the assistants are all there and the kids know the schemes and its not really a HC issue. Now, they can’t win in Little Rock and have a heck of a time in Fayetteville winning as well. And I am not complaining.

ponyboy wrote:Sagarin has a formula that predicts wins and losses based on team ranking and a bump (right now three points) for the home team. Using that formula, here's the rest of our schedule:

@UCF -7
USM 19
@Rice 5
Tulsa EVEN

If true, that would put us at 6-5 going into the Tulsa game where Sagarin predicts a toss up.

Was that factoring in home field?

Yes. It factors in the three points you give to the home team.

Here's another cool site predicts outcome and stats:
http://www.cfbtn.com/2011/11/smu.html?m=1

Same predicted outcome 2-2 the rest of the way.

That is very cool!

And actually it calls the Tulsa game a toss up also.

I wonder what our projection v. UCF and Tulsa would be if you took out our first three games (1 win and 2 losses). We are certainly better than the team that played in those 3 games.

AusTxPony wrote:I wonder what our projection v. UCF and Tulsa would be if you took out our first three games (1 win and 2 losses). We are certainly better than the team that played in those 3 games.

Or is it that we are now just playing crappy football teams? How many games have Houston, Tulane, and Memphis won so far this season?