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Big Bang Theories: The Countdown To Super-Conferences (Part 1)

http://www.mrsec.com/2012/12/big-bang-t ... es-part-1/

In fact, we think only the following 25 schools have any hope of landing in some newfangled super-conference (and in some cases that hope is only very small):

13 ACC schools
Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia and Virginia Tech

9 Big East schools
Boise State, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, San Diego State, SMU, South Florida, and UCF

2 Independent football schools
BYU and Notre Dame

1 Mountain West school
UNLV

Interesting that Wake Forest & Tulane were left out and yet we are in the running. And for all the "Western Expansion" candidates for the nBE, only UNLV moves the needle. No ECU, no Fresno St, no USM, no Tulsa, - so we can see that football on-field performance isn't as important as where your schools are located.

No Temple, which was rated well in:

Cougar King wrote:It's an excerpt in ESPN insider, so if this isn't supposed to be up, the mods can take it down.

The author, Ryan McGee, listed BYU at #1, noting their unique national following.

Surprisingly, #2 on the list is UH. Excerpt:

"When they win, the city really gets behind them," said an SEC administrator, directly referencing Houston's Southwest Conference membership from 1971 through its disbanding in '95. "They've always been caught in between the Texas and Texas A&M crowds, but if they were ever to get back to a top-level conference, where they really have a shot at competing for big championships, the potential there is through the roof."


#3 is Cincy, #4 Boise and #5 Temple.

The next five (in no particular order): SMU, San Diego State, Navy, USF, UConn

Take it FWIW, the author is a former ESPN and Fox Sports television producer. It's no wonder why all of CUSA wants us to fail.

ponyinNC wrote:Big Bang Theories: The Countdown To Super-Conferences (Part 1)

http://www.mrsec.com/2012/12/big-bang-t ... es-part-1/

In fact, we think only the following 25 schools have any hope of landing in some newfangled super-conference (and in some cases that hope is only very small):

13 ACC schools
Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia and Virginia Tech

9 Big East schools
Boise State, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, San Diego State, SMU, South Florida, and UCF

2 Independent football schools
BYU and Notre Dame

1 Mountain West school
UNLV

so that's 4 from the current cusa and 3 from the current mwc and 3 from the current be.

ponyinNC wrote:Interesting that Wake Forest & Tulane were left out and yet we are in the running. And for all the "Western Expansion" candidates for the nBE, only UNLV moves the needle. No ECU, no Fresno St, no USM, no Tulsa, - so we can see that football on-field performance isn't as important as where your schools are located.

Tulane has location and LSU working against them getting back into the SEC. I'd argue that WF has a small shot at the SEC - if they want it - if for no other reason than their location; the SEC desperately wants into NC and Virginia.

Is this just some guy writing what he thinks on his blog? Who is he?

you have no credibility if you mention WF and SEC in the same breath. THey are small, insignificant and have no TV market whatsoever. The SEC could choose any of the other three schools in NC if they choose - less then 0 chance they would ever pick WF. If ACC breaks up WF will be lucky to be in the also ran conference since they add nothing.

gostangs wrote:you have no credibility if you mention WF and SEC in the same breath. THey are small, insignificant and have no TV market whatsoever. The SEC could choose any of the other three schools in NC if they choose - less then 0 chance they would ever pick WF. If ACC breaks up WF will be lucky to be in the also ran conference since they add nothing.

UMMMM, you do realize the exact same thing could be said about SMU, right? WF averages over 30k per game - remind me again what SMU's attendance was last year. Like 22 or 23k?

WF is basically SMU in the ACC, so I wouldn't throw too many stones in this glass house dude.

ponyinNC wrote:

gostangs wrote:you have no credibility if you mention WF and SEC in the same breath. THey are small, insignificant and have no TV market whatsoever. The SEC could choose any of the other three schools in NC if they choose - less then 0 chance they would ever pick WF. If ACC breaks up WF will be lucky to be in the also ran conference since they add nothing.

UMMMM, you do realize the exact same thing could be said about SMU, right? WF averages over 30k per game - remind me again what SMU's attendance was last year. Like 22 or 23k?

WF is basically SMU in the ACC, so I wouldn't throw too many stones in this glass house dude.

WF is smaller than SMU and nearly as small as Rice. WF is not in a large TV market. WF's attendance is nice partly because they have a lot of home games against nearby schools with large fan bases (UNC and NCSU are really close, while Clemson, UVA, and Virginia Tech are still within easy driving distance).

WF is SMU, minus the TV market and a few thousand students / alumni.

We will eventually be in a conference w/ BC, WF, and Duke. Great academic private schools that are competitive in athletics. This is where we belong.

I agree with SMT.

We belong in a hybrid BE/ACC conference with a private ACC schools and the Clemson / UVA/UNC (not holding my breath on UNC) / Uconn / Louisville

If we can pull this off - we are where we need to be. A conference with similarly situated schools, most with high academic aspirations.

CalallenStang wrote:

ponyinNC wrote:

gostangs wrote:you have no credibility if you mention WF and SEC in the same breath. THey are small, insignificant and have no TV market whatsoever. The SEC could choose any of the other three schools in NC if they choose - less then 0 chance they would ever pick WF. If ACC breaks up WF will be lucky to be in the also ran conference since they add nothing.

UMMMM, you do realize the exact same thing could be said about SMU, right? WF averages over 30k per game - remind me again what SMU's attendance was last year. Like 22 or 23k?

WF is basically SMU in the ACC, so I wouldn't throw too many stones in this glass house dude.

WF is smaller than SMU and nearly as small as Rice. WF is not in a large TV market. WF's attendance is nice partly because they have a lot of home games against nearby schools with large fan bases (UNC and NCSU are really close, while Clemson, UVA, and Virginia Tech are still within easy driving distance).

WF is SMU, minus the TV market and a few thousand students / alumni.

You are right about the TV market. SMU wins. We have about 6k undergrads, they have 4500 or so. Not a huge difference. Winston-Salem is about an hour and a half from Chapel Hill/RDU, so they do get a bump from nearby visiting fans.

gostangs wrote:you have no credibility if you mention WF and SEC in the same breath. THey are small, insignificant and have no TV market whatsoever. The SEC could choose any of the other three schools in NC if they choose - less then 0 chance they would ever pick WF. If ACC breaks up WF will be lucky to be in the also ran conference since they add nothing.

I do not claim to be an official source, and I admit that anything I post should be taken as straight-up gossip. But my sources - one who works in the Vandy admin. - remember, they don't have an athletic department - and the head of a ND alumni association, who a month ago thought they were going to the ACC - both say the same things.

1. The Big ten is looking at adding two more schools. Va and VT is believed to be at the top of their wish list, but that's far from a done deal. They also have financial and academic resources that the SEC does not to give them first pick.
2. The SEC wants to add two more and wants into NC and Virginia.
3. FSU, Clemson, and possibly GT want out and to go to the SEC but are getting resistance from the SEC.

When the Big Ten takes its two, certain remaining football-centric schools are going to leave, probably for the big XII. When that happens the SEC will go to the remaing schools in NC and VA and tell them:
"The ACC as you know it is gone. We have two spots available and we want in these states. We are open minded as to membership - who is coming with us".

At that point WF has a chance. Now, Would I bet on them?

No.

SMU has a better chance then wf of getting in the sec - and we have no chance.

Once Maryland is able to negotiate their exit fee from the ACC that conference will be a firesale. Depending on the number of defections they could need as many as 6 schools to replace what they will lose. They will have to chose from the following:


UConn - Virtually a lock
Cincinnati - Virtually a lock
Temple - Doubtful
Navy - Doubtful
East Carolina - Very Doubtful
Central Florida -Maybe
South Florida - Maybe
SMU -Maybe
Houston - Maybe
Tulane - Very Doubtful

I like our chances of landing in a revised BE/ACC type of conference when the dust settles.