Official 2014 SMU Prediction Thread

[sbsmith]

Well June Jones said that SMU has an NFL type secondary. I think that means they could cover the Baylor receivers.

He said his secondary "looks" like an NFL secondary. Probably a good idea to take that with a grain of salt since June has only seen them while they were covering a bunch of mediocre to average receivers during his two-hand touch practices. Covering Baylor's fleet of 4.4 receivers during an actual game will be a little more challenging.

[Rebel10]

I think he is pretty confident in them. We'll see during the first 5 games.

[Grant Carter]

Well June Jones said that SMU has an NFL type secondary. I think that means they could cover the Baylor receivers.

He said his secondary "looks" like an NFL secondary. Probably a good idea to take that with a grain of salt since June has only seen them while they were covering a bunch of mediocre to average receivers during his two-hand touch practices. Covering Baylor's fleet of 4.4 receivers during an actual game will be a little more challenging.

I agree. I took the "look" comment to mean they are bigger and taller than what we have had in the last, I do not think he was trying to claim they would play like an nfl secondary. Of course, most people want to interpret anything he says in the most negative way possible so it is not a surprise.

[JasonB]

If y'all don't subscribe to Football Outsiders, you should go do it now. Best football site on the web.

Here is what they said regarding SMU's season:

SMU: 3-9 (3-5)

1% chance to go 7-5
5% chance to go 6-6
13% chance to go 5-7
24% chance to go 4-8
28% chance to go 3-9
20% chance to go 2-10
8% chance to go 1-11
1% chance to go 0-12

Interesting... love statistics so I'm interested in their methods. What were the released predictions for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? Interested to see the historical accuracy...

[Harry0569]

If y'all don't subscribe to Football Outsiders, you should go do it now. Best football site on the web.

Here is what they said regarding SMU's season:

SMU: 3-9 (3-5)

1% chance to go 7-5
5% chance to go 6-6
13% chance to go 5-7
24% chance to go 4-8
28% chance to go 3-9
20% chance to go 2-10
8% chance to go 1-11
1% chance to go 0-12

Interesting... love statistics so I'm interested in their methods. What were the released predictions for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? Interested to see the historical accuracy...

Fairly close...

No. 91 SMU Mustangs (4-8, 2-6) was their prediction last year:

"On paper, it is a match made in football nerd heaven. SMU head coach June Jones, one of the greatest champions of the run-and-shoot, needed help in boosting an offense that fell to 96th in Offensive F/+ last season. So he called on Hal Mumme, architect of the Air Raid offense so prominent in recent college football. Mumme’s coaching tree—Washington State head coach Mike Leach, West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen, California head coach Sonny Dykes, Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury, and Baylor head coach Art Briles all either served on Mumme’s staff or the staff of a direct Mumme disciple—is more impressive than his win-loss record.

Now, Jones had made something of the Southern Methodist program before Mumme came along. After attending zero bowls in the first 20 seasons since their return from the death penalty, the Mustangs have gone bowling for four straight years, going 30-23 since 2009 after going 30-85 in the previous 10 seasons. But the team slid in 2012. SMU couldn’t even pretend to pass the ball (Texas transfer and former blue-chipper Garrett Gilbert completed just 53 percent of his passes with a 15-to-15 TD-to-INT ratio), and the offense had almost no big-play capability. Mumme’s offense is designed to help the quarterback maximize efficiency, so even if the big plays don’t increase, Gilbert’s completion rate should. At least, it better, because the Mustangs can’t lean on big (and graduated) running back Zach Line anymore. And the offense will have to improve to offset potential defensive regression. Defensive end Margus Hunt and linebackers Taylor Reed and Ja’Gared Davis combined for almost exactly half of SMU’s tackles for loss last year, and all three are gone. The secondary could still be strong with the return of safety Jay Scott and corner Kenneth Acker, but it will probably be put under pressure a lot more in 2013."

[Harry0569]

JasonB - if you are an NFL fan, I would purchase the FO Almanac. 500 pages of analysis for like $20. It's a great read.

[JasonB]

What can I buy before my fantasy draft on Thursday that I can use as a quick reference?

[Harry0569]

What can I buy before my fantasy draft on Thursday that I can use as a quick reference?

Buy their KUBIAK projection system...or I can just send you the one I bought. PM me for details

[redpony]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 2-10: only beating UConn and Memphis (or possibly Cincy).

Baylor will probably beat us 52-14. Briles will call of the dogs late 2nd or early 3rd Q. and we will finally get some points. A fitting start to tiki's final season.

[Big12Mustang]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 2-10: only beating UConn and Memphis (or possibly Cincy).

Baylor will probably beat us 52-14. Briles will call of the dogs late 2nd or early 3rd Q. and we will finally get some points. A fitting start to tiki's final season.

Tiki won't get fired. We just signed an extension and there is no word on a buyout clause. The sooner you get used to it the easier your life will be.

[redpony]

b-12, people far more connected than you are quite sure this is his last year here. Sorry to disappoint you and the rest of his family.

[PonyKai]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 2-10: only beating UConn and Memphis (or possibly Cincy).

Baylor will probably beat us 52-14. Briles will call of the dogs late 2nd or early 3rd Q. and we will finally get some points. A fitting start to tiki's final season.

Tiki won't get fired. We just signed an extension and there is no word on a buyout clause. The sooner you get used to it the easier your life will be.

Yeah, there are lots of words about the buyout clause. They just haven't been mentioned here, because far too much of the discussion devolves into meaningless tripe. And it's impressively naive to think that because a coach signed an extension - favorable to the University - that he won't be fired.

[Big12Mustang]

What I'm afraid of is not getting a better coach than him after he gets canned

[StangItUpSMU]

This is a legitimate worry of mine as well. What if we get stuck with someone like Mack Brown?

[redpony]

I think many of us have that concern. Frankly, I have very little confidence in casper to make a 'splash' hire. IMO his coaching selection will pretty well define his tenure here.