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going for 2 at UAB

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going for 2 at UAB

Postby Hoop Fan » Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:56 pm

I don't know what the chart says, but I can tell you why I liked the decision by Bennett to go for one up 22-17. Here was my thinking at the time. We all knew it was likely that Hackney was going to get another touchdown. There was almost a whole quarter of football still to play. Even if we go for two and make it to go up 7, that still only sends us to OT if UAB scores a td. If we miss the two pointer (more likely), guess what UAB does if they score a touchdown next to go up 23-22? They would have gone for two to try to get up 25-22. With Hackney, chances are they make it. Then look what you have done...you have taken the chance to win the game with a McMurtry field goal out of the equation. At that point, heck with overtime and a repeat of Marshall, you gotta play to win on the road. I think Bennett did the right thing, he knew we had to score again most likely anyway, only problem was we missed the PAT. Go up by 6, then even if UAB has a long possession and scores you still have a chance to WIN with a field goal, not just tie. With our offense, I dont feel very good about going 80 yards ever. Point is, I would go for the PAT every time in that situation. Nacho, you might be right in a pure sense or according to the chart, but not for my money.
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Re: going for 2 at UAB

Postby SWC2010 » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:13 pm

Hoop Fan wrote:... With our offense, I dont feel very good about going 80 yards ever...

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80 yards in 23 ticks should make you feel LOTS better 8)
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Postby Nacho » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:17 pm

I'm sure all of that was going through Bennett's head when he decided to go for 1 instead of 2 when every football expert in the country would have gone for 2.

We essentilly missed the 2 anyway (after failing the 1) and were forced to go for the win. Luckily we were able to go 80 yards in 23 seconds with 0 timeouts for the win.

I guarantee you that if Chase had dropped that ball on what was probably at most a 1 in 10 chance play, all we would be talking about is the stupid decision to go for 1, not 2, giving us no chane to tie and go to OT.

When up by 5 I would go for the 2 no matter how early in the game. I think just about every coach in any level of football would. Some would quibble with that and I can see the argument for not doing it early but in the 4th quarter there is no excuse.

They may have come across a bit harsh but I think Bennett got away with a real bonehead call. I'm glad he did though.
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Postby Hoop Fan » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:22 pm

I wouldnt be complaining, because I can tell you at the time I liked the call. And I really dont think every football guy in the country would have gone for two under the circumstances. Also, remember, our defense has proven over and over that it gets worn down and gives up points in the 4th quarter. Bennett did the right thing knowing this team and I've said plenty when he hasn't including being the first one to say he was wrong when I got home seething from the Baylor game after he went for it from 4th and 4 from midfield with a 7-3 lead.
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Postby PonySnob » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:28 pm

Does it really matter? We still have Copelan as our AD and a head football coach who has now won 8 games in 3 1/2 years and has yet to come close to sniffing a winning season while at SMU!!!
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Postby LonghornFan68 » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:39 pm

/\ Party pooper.
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Postby Hoop Fan » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:40 pm

PonySnob wrote:Does it really matter? We still have Copelan as our AD and a head football coach who has now won 8 games in 3 1/2 years and has yet to come close to sniffing a winning season while at SMU!!!


Yea, it matters. You're just still mad because Bennett beat your Frogs. Run along now Deep Purple.
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Postby Nacho » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:41 pm

Which is the higher percentage play?

--Drive 80 yards in 23 seconds with 0 timeouts for a TD

--Drive 49 yards (to their 31) and make a 48 yard FG

Both are long odds but I would opt for the FG and I think almost any coach would.

I know that at the time I was really disappointed that we couldn't go down and try a long FG.

It worked out for Bennett so I lose this argument every time but I tell you it was the wrong call. Everybody makes a mistake every now and then that works out. They get away with it in spite of themselves. Case in point: the above.

I'm putting you down for not going for 2 when up by 5.
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Postby Nacho » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:55 pm

Here is a fairly complicated chart. I don't know if I would give this to a coach (ther are much simpler charts available) but in mathematical terms here is what you do:

http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm
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Postby Hoop Fan » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:55 pm

I'm not saying you are wrong, statistically or otherwise. I am saying that you're not right either, and it was not an obvious decision either way.

At the time the decision was made, I don't think Bennett thought he could give up 10 points and still win the game. I think we all can understand that thinking, even though we did give up 10 and still won the game. That led him to think in terms of giving up 7 or 8 points.

The scenario I painted where we give up a td and a two point conversion was as likely or more likely than giving up a td and fg. There was time to score, but if we gave up multiple scores it was going to be highly unlikely for us to win without another touchdown anyway.
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Postby Nacho » Wed Oct 12, 2005 2:59 pm

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Postby Hoop Fan » Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:00 pm

Nacho wrote:Here is a fairly complicated chart. I don't know if I would give this to a coach (ther are much simpler charts available) but in mathematical terms here is what you do:

http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm


here's what is flawed about the chart...average conversion rates might mean something in the NFL, but not for SMU. You have to assume that UABs conversion rate against our defense is going to be much higher than our two point conversion rate. Thats the crux of it. The chart means nothing and I'm glad Bennett ignored it whatever it said.
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Postby PK » Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:04 pm

We were on the one yard line earlier in the game and could not punch it across the goal line. Why would you think going for a two point conversion would be easier? You have to take more factors in to consideration than just a damn conversion chart to make those kind of decisions.
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Postby Nacho » Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:13 pm

When should SMU go for 2?
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Postby KnuckleStang » Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:14 pm

Vs. Tulsa, 2004: Up by 11. Bennett consults chart. It says go for 2. He obeys. We don't get it. Bennett is considered an idiot.

Vs. UAB, 2005: Up by 5. Bennett consults chart. (?) It says go for 2. He disregards this information. We have a bad snap, resulting in no points. Bennett is once again considered an idiot.

Conclusion: Bennett will be considered an idiot by some people regardless of what he does, so he might as well throw away the chart.
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