Sobering statistics

[SMUstangs22]

People/media keep talking undefeated season. So basic theoretical statistics. If we have a constant 95 percent chance to win a single game (probably much less)... our chances of reaching 25 games in a row would be 27.7 percent.

[LA_Mustang]

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[SMUstangs22]

Touche

[Digetydog]

People/media keep talking undefeated season. So basic theoretical statistics. If we have a constant 95 percent chance to win a single game (probably much less)... our chances of reaching 25 games in a row would be 27.7 percent.

That is not correct:
1) the chance to win any individual game is nowhere near constant. Indeed, in some games, it might be closer to 50%; and

2) the math assumes that each game is independent. As we get closure to an undefeated record, I suspect that each win would have a strong impact on the next game (Pressure on SMU ⬆️, SMU confidence ⬆️, other team's desire to win ⬆️)

All in, I would guesstimate the chance of winning out < 10%.

[PonyFan32]

Lol. The original poster posed a hypothetical and admitted it wasn't exact but thanks for poking holes in that theory.

[sadderbudweiser]

So you're telling me we've got a chance.

[SMUstangs22]

People/media keep talking undefeated season. So basic theoretical statistics. If we have a constant 95 percent chance to win a single game (probably much less)... our chances of reaching 25 games in a row would be 27.7 percent.

That is not correct:
1) the chance to win any individual game is nowhere near constant. Indeed, in some games, it might be closer to 50%; and

2) the math assumes that each game is independent. As we get closure to an undefeated record, I suspect that each win would have a strong impact on the next game (Pressure on SMU ⬆️, SMU confidence ⬆️, other team's desire to win ⬆️)

All in, I would guesstimate the chance of winning out < 10%.

I was just posting general conjecture aiming at putting a few very speculative and padded numbers to show how difficult it is to go undefeated. That is why I chose 95%. As in 19/20 chance regardless of opponent

[SMUstangs22]

So you're telling me we've got a chance.

Haha one of the best posts I have seen in a while

[Digetydog]

People/media keep talking undefeated season. So basic theoretical statistics. If we have a constant 95 percent chance to win a single game (probably much less)... our chances of reaching 25 games in a row would be 27.7 percent.

That is not correct:
1) the chance to win any individual game is nowhere near constant. Indeed, in some games, it might be closer to 50%; and

2) the math assumes that each game is independent. As we get closure to an undefeated record, I suspect that each win would have a strong impact on the next game (Pressure on SMU ⬆️, SMU confidence ⬆️, other team's desire to win ⬆️)

All in, I would guesstimate the chance of winning out < 10%.

I was just posting general conjecture aiming at putting a few very speculative and padded numbers to show how difficult it is to go undefeated. That is why I chose 95%. As in 19/20 chance regardless of opponent

Since I rarely know the right answer in stats, I had to show off my "vast" knowledge of the subject.

[SMUstangs22]

I would LOVE for our team to prove me wrong. 1 closer.

[DanFreibergerForHeisman]

Touche

That isn't how you spell it.

[stl.pony]

#revengetour

[Alaric]

Touche

That isn't how you spell it.

[deleted]?

[Grant Carter]

RPI forecast updates their projection for the chances of finishing with various records every day. I believe they get the chances of winning each game from sagarin.

As of today they show it at 4.1% chance for SMU to go undefeated. That is the simple result of multiplying the chances for every game in the game by game section.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/SMU.html

[SMUstangs22]

RPI forecast updates their projection for the chances of finishing with various records every day. I believe they get the chances of winning each game from sagarin.

As of today they show it at 4.1% chance for SMU to go undefeated. That is the simple result of multiplying the chances for every game in the game by game section.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/SMU.html

I figured one of the RPI sites would do this. Also knew 95% was way to high for the average considering the Kenpom win predictability percentages that have been posted