Reasonable Goal for Season?

[bagice]

With Conference play just around the corner and having seen every home game so far, I was trying in my mind to come up with what I would like to see happen this year given the players and our talent level.

First of all, with the exception of Memphis, Conference USA is AWEFUL overall as a basketball conference. Houston, UAB, and UTEP have some potential, but each has had at least one bad loss so far. Here are the Sagarin ratings:

18 CONFERENCE USA = 71.57
College Basketball 2005-2006 Div I games only
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.78 RATING W L
3 Memphis = 94.79 9 1
76 Houston = 79.79 3 3
95 UAB = 78.61 5 3
121 UTEP = 75.80 4 2
182 SMU = 72.16 4 3
201 Tulsa = 71.31 3 5
235 Rice = 69.02 2 5
243 Central Florida(UCF) = 68.65 3 3
256 Marshall = 67.53 4 4
265 Tulane = 67.10 2 5
291 East Carolina = 65.21 3 5
299 Southern Miss = 64.43 3 6

For me, I would like to see SMU finish 2nd in the conference and get the number 2 seed for the tournament. That goal is a bit lofty, but I think it is possible, given the competition we play. Houston or UAB has a bit of an edge on us and we do have to play Houston at their house, but we do get UAB at home.

I think anything less than #4 would be a disapointment and a wasted opportunity with so many conference mates being down/rebuilding this year.

We have a good opportunity to win 22-24 games this year and maybe sneak into the NIT considering we get to play so many weak teams in the conference. Of course, we are going to have to win the games we are supposed to and SMU is notorious for not doing that.

Against this competition, BHop can be the real difference maker. Like him or not, the vast majority of the CUSA teams have no one that can approach his skill level. I would love for us to fight Houston and UAB for the number 2 seed all year and at least garner some NIT consideration. I think it is possible given the competition and I would consider that a successful season and something to build upon.

[The PonyGrad]

It is really hard to have any idea what SMU is going to look like this season. If the team is consistent and BF makes a big splash maybe your dream comes true.

My guess is that we end up #5, hopefully make a splash in the CUSA tourney and make the NIT if we are lucky.

[Charleston Pony]

16-11 in the regular season would be an accomplishment. Probably have to win tomorrow night to have any chance of accomplishing that record

[ALEX LIFESON]

What is the Cowboy's record?

[bagice]

I'm not overly thrilled with the talent we have, but when I compare it to the other teams in the conference, we actually don't look that bad.

I agree that the Wyoming game will be a big indicator, that is a team we should beat, although it will probably be a tossup in their gym. That could get us off to a good start.

[Billy Joe]

It is time to clean house with this mess....more details to come....stay tuned!!!! It is going to get real interesting on the hilltop.

[Charleston Pony]

Wyoming is a game we should win? There's a reason they are favored by 6.5 pts. Like I said, 16-11 would be a very good season for this team but a loss tonight makes .500 a challenge

[friarwolf]

Stop smoking that ice, bag. It is harmful to your reasoning abilities. A .500 record is more likely................

[The Falcon]

They are 5-4. They have lost to Princeton & Washington State & Southern Illinois & UNC Wilmington. Three of the wins came against Charlotte,
Montana State, & Alabama State - they also beat Northern Colorado and
Colorado at Colorado State. (not Univ of Colorado Boulder.)

They would appear to be beatable.

[bagice]

They are beatable. The line is a reflection of how tough it is to travel to Wyoming and play there along with the fact that oddsmakers have little faith in SMU, of course, for good reason. On paper, we have a better team.

And, I am not smoking anything but Marlboros. Not trying to be a sunshiner, I am just trying to set some goals that are ambitious, but should be obtainable. If the team lays an egg and doesn't come close to approaching what I have envisioned, I will be here ripping them just like everyone else. I was just trying to figure out what SHOULD be expected, now its up to the Ponies to go out there and do it.

[LA_Mustang]

I say .500. We were a BAD team without Hop.....with him we should be a middle of the pack C-USA team. Bamba could be the X factor.
Memphis is so far above anyone in our conference. They are stacked and a legit Final Four contender. UH and UAB are probably the next two best teams.

[EastStang]

My guess is 9-5 in conference. My goal would be 11-3. We have games at home against UAB, UCF, USM, UTEP, Rice, Tulsa, Marshall. That's seven winnable games at home. We have Memphis and UH on the road, those would be extremely difficult to win. We have ECU, Tulane, Tulsa, Rice, UTEP on the road as well. We should win at least two of those. That would make us 9-5. If we could win four of those road games, we could be 11-3 in conference. So if we go 9-5, I figure we'll be a 4-6 seed. If we go 11-3 we'll be a 3-4 seed. I think these guys can put together a run and really make some hay in conference. We won't get an NCAA at-large bid with that record, and but we would certainly be worthy of consideration for a NIT bid (probably on the road). That would be a big boost to the program.

[bagice]

Actually,

I guess I was smoking something, my analysis was right along with what East Stang just posted, but I based the overall win total on us having 8 wins to date, musta double counted a couple of games I had in the win column.

I still think 20 wins is possible and should be a good mark to shoot for. Conference rankings will be very important for an NIT bid as well. If we could sneak into 2nd or even 3rd or 4th overall, that would bolster our argument.

[PonySnob]

Could any of the losses that we already have really damage our NIT chances provided the rest of the season goes well?

[bagice]

I wouldn't think so. The only loss I am really bummed about is Louisana-Monroe, we played so aweful that game and they did everything they could to hand it to us and they are 1-7, with SMU being their only win so far.

We played respectable againt OSU, and Toledo is a pretty good team that shot really well the night they played us, plus we didn't have Bhop then.

Of course, we could still suffer some embarrassing losses going forward, but I think no real harm has been done to date.