2016-2017 Bracketology Thread

[RyanSMU98]

ESPN's first bubble watch was published today:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: Cincinnati
Work left to do: SMU

SMU [20-4 (10-1), RPI: 25, SOS: 105] Expecting SMU to quietly fade from relevance wasn't a crazy bet; not only did the Mustangs lose coach Larry Brown, but also the on-court core of Brown's success in his four-year tenure (Nic Moore, Jordan Tolbert, Markus Kennedy, et al.). But the first year of the Tim Jankovich era has been an unmitigated success, especially lately, as the Mustangs have rounded into shape during conference play. After starting 4-3, SMU is 16-1 in its past 17 games, and was a bucket away from a win at Cincinnati on Jan. 12. Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye has shown why he was signed by no less august a program than the Blue Devils in the first place. Cincinnati comes to Moody Coliseum on Sunday. Don't miss it.

So wait a minute: we've been entrenched as a #7 seed for weeks. This week we blow out two conference opponents, crack the top 25, and now we're on Bubble Watch?? WTF

[deucetz]

It has to do with how bad the AAC is right now. If we lost games we shouldn't lose until the end of the season, we may be a bubble team. We don't have a signature win yet.

[SMUstang07]

^^^Have you seen our profile? It's not very strong. We have zero wins over teams solidly in the field (and only 1 top 50 RPI win). If we lose 3 more games and in the conference tourney we will be on the good side of the bubble, but still definitely on it. 15-3 in conference places us in the field for sure. Nothing but Cincy and a bunch of landmines left on the schedule. Hence, work left to do.

[PonyTime]

Cincinnati's best win of the year was beating us. Once you get into circular logic, when we beat Cincinnati, look for that win to be diminished.

[deucetz]

Cincinnati's best win of the year was beating us. Once you get into circular logic, when we beat Cincinnati, look for that win to be diminished.

I hope you're joking. They beat Xavier and Iowa State--two likely tournament teams.

[PonyLawExpress]

Cincinnati's best win of the year was beating us. Once you get into circular logic, when we beat Cincinnati, look for that win to be diminished.

I hope you're joking. They beat Xavier and Iowa State--two likely tournament teams.

Xavier and ISU are similar wins to us. ISU beat KU this year but also lost to TCU. Cincy has 3 nice wins. We really only have TCU. Outside of that we have a group of solid wins (@Memphis, Pitt, UH, Stanford), but not real quality wins.

I agree 15-3 would for sure get us in, but if we want to be hirer than a 7-10 we likely need to sweep the rest of the regular season or only lose once and win conf Tourney.

[PonyTime]

Cincinnati's best win of the year was beating us. Once you get into circular logic, when we beat Cincinnati, look for that win to be diminished.

I hope you're joking. They beat Xavier and Iowa State--two likely tournament teams.

You really think that ISU and Xavier are better teams than what is on the floor at Moody? Like the AP voters, you must not be watching what is going on right now.

I think the Cincy team that is on the floor right now is their best team in years. Also think that we will both get screwed in the end.

[DiamondM]

Simmer down. We do still have "work to do" -- if we went on a slide now we would at best be on the bubble. The Bubble Watch is not predictive like Bracketology, it is based on current resume. As in, you are a lock if you could lose the rest of your games and still get in. That's not us. We still have to win some. Many other good teams predicted to take care of business and be in the field but currently have work to do.

Lord knows, we cannot take ANYTHING for granted.

[DanFreibergerForHeisman]

Exactly. Until a team can pretty much lose the rest of their games they are not a lock.

It would be nice if they had us in "should be in" but I can understand why.

[Dukie]

Any of the teams currently called "locks" would be out if they went on a bad-enough slide.

These types of articles, written today, should absolutely call SMU a lock. Which SI just did:

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... 12-big-ten?

[smupony94]

Time killer - enter SMU

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... alm-reader

[DanFreibergerForHeisman]

Time killer - enter SMU

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... alm-reader

This is cool

[Harry0569]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... approaches

Bilas Index

21. SMU Mustangs
Coach Tim Jankovich has done a great job with the Ponies. SMU allows 58.6 points per game, fewest in the American and third-fewest in the nation. Former Duke player Semi Ojeleye is one of two American players averaging at least 17 points and five rebounds (the other being Dedric Lawson at Memphis).

[Harry0569]

Other:

11. Baylor Bears
Baylor is 10-3 against teams currently in the BPI top 50, and that is the most such wins in the nation. Jonathan Motley averages 9.8 rebounds per game, most in the Big 12. Motley's nine double-doubles are tied with Kenrich Williams of TCU for most in the Big 12.

19. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bilastrator loves the Bearcats. This team can score, it plays hard, and it still has the defense and rebounding coach Mick Cronin built the program upon. The Bearcats average 77.7 points per game and shoot 47.7 percent from the field, both best in the American. Troy Caupain has a 3.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, best in the American. Whenever The Bilastrator says or writes "The American," he thinks not of a conference but of a breakfast order at a greasy diner. The American is two eggs, choice of meat, hash browns, toast and juice.

38. USC Trojans
The Bilastrator likes the Trojans, though USC has yet to beat anybody, with the notable exceptions of SMU and UCLA. The Trojans get a steal on 10 percent of opponents' possessions, highest percentage in the Pac-12.

40. TCU Horned Frogs
Vladimir Brodziansky is averaging 18.6 points per game in Big 12 play, second among Big 12 players (Frank Mason III, Kansas 21.2). The loss to Auburn excepted, TCU has not lost games to teams it should beat.

45. Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines average 115.9 points per 100 possessions, the best offensive efficiency in the Big Ten and 13th in the nation. The Wolverines average 38.1 percent of their points from the 3-point line, highest percentage in the Big Ten and second among major-conference teams. The Wolverines are pretty easy to figure out. If you don't allow open 3-point shots and make Michigan beat you inside of the arc, Michigan has trouble beating you. If they can shoot the 3 and keep you on a string with back cuts, the Wolverines can beat you.

52. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech allows 20.8 paint points per game, fewest in the Big 12 and second-fewest among major-conference teams. The Red Raiders allow their opponents to rebound 25 percent of their missed shots, lowest percentage in the Big 12 and eighth-fewest among major-conference teams.

66. Boise State Broncos
The Broncos are 15-7 and are led by 6-foot-7 junior Chandler Hutchison, who averages 17 points and 8.5 rebounds. Hutchison has vastly improved his overall game and has already made more free throws and 3-point field goals this season than in his first two seasons combined.

68. UCF Knights
The Knights had lost four in a row -- three of the four on the road -- before beating Memphis. UCF is solid defensively, funneling everything to 7-foot-6 rim protector and sun eclipser Tacko Fall, who is one of the better shot-blockers and shot-changers in the country. Where UCF can struggle is in taking care of the ball. The Knights turn the ball over at a 22 percent rate, 340th in the nation

[DanFreibergerForHeisman]

Whenever The Bilastrator says or writes "The American," he thinks not of a conference but of a breakfast order at a greasy diner. The American is two eggs, choice of meat, hash browns, toast and juice.

Did he work three years on this joke?