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Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby SMU_Alum11 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:03 pm

Stallion wrote:Why are you posting inaccurate "Fake News" Sagarin Conference rankings again? The AAC West is not ranked ahead of the SEC East or Big 10 West or AAC Coastal like in your post. Come on man quit posting crap-for the 2nd week in a row. This is the original source link

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/s ... onference/


We are in the same page and I still see it as I copied. Are you seeing something different....
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby skyscraper » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:09 pm

Honestly I'm hoping we don't embarrass ourselves in front of another homecoming crowd. It's very demoralizing when the casual fan gets a strong reinforcement of "SMU football still gets blown out."

UCF 45
SMU 28
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby ponynut » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:14 pm

I will take the long shot here, looking that perhaps our defense might step up as they did against Houston last year, SMU 38-31.
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby JoeKidd » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:35 pm

Only way we win is if we score 50+.....the Offense hasn't even hit 40 against lesser competition recently so I don't think that's realistic, but since this doesn't have to be realistic I will pick us to win 51-48. No matter what happens I will be there with a large contingency and loud through the finish.
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby Nacho » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:40 pm

why don't we play teams we can beat for homecoming? we get to choose the game.
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby oilpony » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:58 pm

SMU 22
UCF 52
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby Pony ^ » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:43 pm

Nacho wrote:why don't we play teams we can beat for homecoming? we get to choose the game.

My guess is that they know our crowd is pathetic either way, so they would like a few hundred more for a bigger game in hopes it makes a difference
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby Arkpony » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:10 pm

Florida guys 59, good guys 24
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby blackoutpony » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:22 pm

UCF 55
SMU 41
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby StallionsModelT » Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:14 pm

UCF 66
SMU 35
Back off Warchild seriously.
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby Charleston Pony » Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:49 pm

Really going to go out on a limb and predict with my heart and not my brain here...SMU finds a way to get it done and wins a wild one 48-44 knocking UCF from the ranks of the undefeated.
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby lollaperuna » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:01 pm

I predict there will be a minimum of 10 new posts calling for the firing of Coach Van after our too slow, too small and poor tackling defense gets torched.
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby 03Mustang » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:13 pm

I think our relatively easy schedule and key injuries on the OL come back to haunt us and we have a rough night.

Something like 45-24 UCF
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby Stallion » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:46 pm

SMU_Alum11 wrote:
Stallion wrote:Why are you posting inaccurate "Fake News" Sagarin Conference rankings again? The AAC West is not ranked ahead of the SEC East or Big 10 West or AAC Coastal like in your post. Come on man quit posting crap-for the 2nd week in a row. This is the original source link

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/s ... onference/


We are in the same page and I still see it as I copied. Are you seeing something different....


This is incorrect-the AAC West is the lowest ranked among these 4 Divisions-your numbers are completely made up by someone-you've fallen for Fake News

7 AAC WEST (A) = 73.21 72.03 6 ( 9)
8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 72.44 72.76 7 ( 7)
9 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 72.25 72.76 7 (
10 SEC-EAST (A) = 68.51 70.85 7 ( 10)
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Re: Official: SMU vs UCF Pedictions

Postby SMU_Alum11 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:03 pm

I’ve never fallen for fake news. You are quick to judge! Where the confusion lies is segmentation of the data based on methodology. You are seeing AAC West ranked at 10th right? This is because you are following the old/original method. If you scroll down mid-way, there’s a new section that says “new features”. Here’s the description:
“COMBO is the combining of the ELO and the BLUE. ELO and BLUE are set to be on the same scale
and so are directly comparable and of course the COMBO is set to that same scale.

ELO uses only who the winner and loser was of each game and of course the game location.
So the difference in ELO between winning by 1 and losing by 1 is very large.

BLUE cares only about the score and game location and so in BLUE, the difference between
winning by 1 and losing by 1 is simply only 2 points which would be the same difference
as winning by 20 as compared to winning by 18 ... very small.
BLUE is an acronym which stands for "BestLinearUnbiasedEstimator" also known as "pure-least-squares."

The ELO and the BLUE and thus the COMBO are all "unbiased" in that they consider only results from the season in question.
Starting ratings have no bearing at all.”
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