OFFICIAL SMU-NAVY PREDICTIONS

[ALEX LIFESON]

Enormous game for both teams, we are both playing for the same thing this week. Before the Notre Dame game, there was much discussion on what would be the best scenario for SMU in this game, such as, an all out physical fight to the end…. far from what happened. Prior to this game, Navy had fumbled 8 times, they fumbled 3 times early in the 1st half. I think the worse scenario happened in this game for SMU, Murphy's law happened to them and they were humiliated. Navy had their star quarterback Perry... and most of their starters on the bench in the 2nd half, the only thing that got bruised and battered, was their ego.

[ALEX LIFESON]

Correct me if I am wrong, but we have not beat Navy on the road, since 1998. This is also their senior day, normally a motivational factor for any team, but for a military academy …. it takes it to a different level. It will take a tremendous mental and physical effort, for us to win this game. Do not be fooled, about what happened at Notre Dame.

[BIGHORSE]

Our defense better be ready, and wrap up.

[KealaLohi]

I apologize if I’m late to the party but is Roberson out for season?

[No Quarter]

SMU is one and four against Navy in the current series and has been outscored 116 - 203. I certainly agree with the comment on another thread that we will not enjoy the glaring difference in size and speed and depth that the Dame displayed. I'm not a very knowledgeable fan but my feelings are of guarded optimism and I believe that SD will have SMU ready to play.

GO PONIES!

[dalpony]

I apologize if I’m late to the party but is Roberson out for season?

Yes

[peruna81]

Our defensive scheme has been analyzed by wiser minds than me, and the result is the last three games. Navy will come ready to exploit this vulnerability.

The question is how efficient will our O be.... I say VERY efficient.

49-45 Ponies.

[JasonB]

Watched the game yesterday. Navy was unlucky with the turnovers, they haven't done that all season. They were able to move the ball consistently. Perry is a really difficult player. You need an athletic player to spy him in the passing game. You absolutely have to get negative plays against them. They will get 4 yards per carry, and go for it on fourth, so you have to make them go 13+ yards to get a first down.

We will man up on the outside. They don't have a threat at slot receiver, so I don't expect that to be an issue like it has been the past several weeks. I have always been a fan of playing aggressive against the option rather than bend don't break, especially with a strong offense on our side. I'd love to see us sell out. Play a 4-4 with 43 taking the FB, McBride on Perry, and Nelson takes the pitch on one side, and 3 takes the pitch on the other. 23 is the free safety in the middle.

Navy is really slow at LB. The ND TE, number 83 by chance, killed them. Running up the middle plays into Navy's strength. They won't be able to keep up with X in space, so I expect a lot of plays just to get him outside.

In *theory* we match up really well with Navy. We have a deep DL. We have some LBs that can run and make plays. We can put two corners in the game, Stephens and Jones, who can not only cover but are big enough to defend against the run. We have an extra week to prep for the Navy game. One one, hugely important factor - we have a really good scout team now who can simulate the option, and Bentley is a fantastic player to simulate McNeil.

However, the panicked Mustang inside me is starting to win out. Weather is going to be key. Cold day, will stay in the 40s. That isn't in our favor. There is a chance of rain later in the day - if that moves earlier, it will make it worse. If Navy has ball control drives, even if our offense scores on short possessions, they are going to get really cold on the sidelines and eventually that will become a factor.
Our second and third string DEs are pass rush specialists and won't hold up as well against the option. 3 has been out hurt. Armani Johnson I think will struggle in this game with the physicality. Our two transfer safeties are our best tacklers from the safety position, but they haven't been able to get on the field. I see our offense moving with ease for the most part, but they stall a couple of times and Navy wins 45-42.

I would love to be wrong, but I just think our OL and defense are one year away from winning games like this and Memphis on the road.

[SmooBoy]

ND's big WR tore through them and put the game away early. Our best chance is to get the passing game lit up with some long drives and keep their offense off the field.

This year is the "first time since" so we finally win in Annapolis, 48-42,

[AusTxPony]

If we don't beat this Navy team, then we aren't the team I think we are. No doubt we will be tested, but this offense should outscore them with the defense doing just enough to win. Focus Mustangs, focus. To hell with the weather. Just bring your talent and your heart.

[SMU Pom Mom]

I always enjoy JasonB's analyses because I always learn something. All I can do is look at stats in a super basic way.

SMU's passing offense > Navy's passing defense
SMU's rushing offense < Navy's rushing defense
SMU's rushing defense < Navy's rushing offense
SMU's passing defense > Navy doesn't throw the ball

SMU is a well rounded team. They can tackle. They are mature and mentally tough.They make adjustments. History doesn't matter. The environment doesn't matter.

SMU 45
Navy 38

[PoconoPony]

I have been to all of the Navy games at Annapolis for the past 20 years. It seems that each game has been really decided based on the weather. Rain, wind and cold have been the direct links to our losses most recently. If we can get a decent day with modest wind and reasonable temperatures, we should be fine this time. We finally have an offense that gives one confidence that they can score at any time and very quickly.

[One Trick Pony]

I have been to all of the Navy games at Annapolis for the past 20 years. It seems that each game has been really decided based on the weather. Rain, wind and cold have been the direct links to our losses most recently. If we can get a decent day with modest wind and reasonable temperatures, we should be fine this time. We finally have an offense that gives one confidence that they can score at any time and very quickly.

The Sun was in my eyes

SMU 9&2

[ALEX LIFESON]

Right now, game time temperature, in the mid 40's to low 40's by the end of the contest. Light winds, with partly cloudy skies. Could not ask for better weather, this time of the year. We all know the reasons why Navy can win this game, but losing to them under the circumstances, would put a serious black eye on our season.

[SMU_Alum11]

I think we have more talent and I think we are the better team. Like Memphis, this will have an emotional factor sadly that we have to play against. I believe in Buchelle and the offense. I believe in SMU rush defense. I believe we win this 55-52 with Navy storming back but falling short.