ACC/Big East

[SMUstang]

Personally, I think getting into a new C-USA that would be more regional would be a plus for SMU. However, I would rather earn admission than back in because they lost schools to the BL. Unless the BB only schools also left, C-USA would still be very spread out for the basketball members, reaching from NC-C to TCU. Also there is the question that if Miami, Syracuse, and BC left the BL, would the BL retain it's BCS status? If not, could they attract UL, UC, EC, or Army from C-USA? Also which conference would have the best bowl tie-ins and TV coverage if the BL lost it's BCS status?

[Sonic]

An interesting read...

<A HREF="http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/5710810.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/5710810.htm</A>

[SMUstang]

Indeed this is an interesting read. It sounds like the question is not "if" but "when" the Big East goes down. I hope SMU is ready and much more attractive a program when this happens than it has been for the past 15 years.

[Charleston Pony]

This is going to be FUN stuff. The ACC is definitely in a position to decimate the Big East as a football conference. Don't be surprised if the Big East returns to it's basketball origins, with it's members playing I-AA football (those that play football to begin with). Rutgers and UConn are the ones most likely to follow that path, whereas West Virginia might be an attractive addition for CUSA if a major shakeup occurs with that conference as a result of the domino effect.

My prediction is that you will see an entirely new conference or two develop out of this; conferences whose members are more compatible in terms of their geographic locations, athletic budgets and number of sports they participate in. CUSA and the Big East are vulnerable because of the football vs basketball issues. The Big 10 and Pac 10 aren't likely to wait forever before they, too, jump into the 12 member football championship mix.

Let's just hope we show improvement in 2003-2004, because something tells me these deals are going to be done soon. Don't most of these conference "contracts" call for heavy penalties (forfeiture of revenue sharing) if proper notice isn't given before leaving?

[SMUstang]

It's fun to speculate, and to hope for an upgrade for SMU. But that is all it is at this point, speculation. I doubt that anyone has gotten it right yet as to what will happen, myself included. There are just too many possibilities. I think you are on to something though CP about the BE going back to a basketball conference with maybe a few Div. 1AA or Div 2 football schools. What do you think Tulane will do? We need to win at least 8 games and go to a bowl this year. Too bad about the EWAC bowl situation.

[This message has been edited by SMUstang (edited 04-28-2003).]

[Water Pony]

Once the process starts, major realignment will occur with the following characteristics:

1. Major Div 1 Conferences go to 12 schools for Championship game and two Division alignment
2. ACC adds two schools (Miami & BC or Syracuse)
3. Big Ten adds one school (Syracuse or Pitt, long shot is Missouri)
4. Pac Ten adds two schools (BYU and Utah, long shot is Colorado)
5. Big East football survives by adding Louisville, Cincinnati, Army and Navy, who aligns for the first time.
6. Conf. USA spilts off BB schools and adds for FB SMU, Rice and Tulsa (or adds Navy and keeps Army)
7. Mtn. West picks up Boise State and Fresno State
7. WAC covers loss by adding Utah State and New Mexico State
8. Sun Belt will struggle or go to Div. 1A
9. Alternatively, Big East could implode and survivors going 1A.
10. SEC and Big 12 - no changes
11. Div. 1 Schools will divide into eight (96), maybe seven (84), 12 school conferences. Hard to imagine nine Div. 1 Conferences
12. Playoffs could be created from Conference Championships, which could be Bowls in name and location.

Having said all this, once the first step occurs; events will have a momentum of their own. Only SEC and Big 12 will be internally focused and the Big Ten cherry picking their choice. SMU wins with more a geographic oriented conference Conf. USA - West.

[SMUstang]

Water Pony, some questions about your post and using your assumptions.

1) Why would the ACC add only 2 schools? That would take them to only 11, not 12.

2) Since the ACC probably adds Syracuse, the Big 10 probably adds Pitt or Missouri.

3) SMU, Rice and Tulsa would go to C-USA for all sports, not football only.

4) If the WAC adds USU and NMSU, then the SBC is dead as a Div. 1A conference.

5) There could be changes in the Big 12 if Missouri and / or Colorado leaves. If that happens, Arkansas would probably go to the Big 12, which would then impact the SEC, which would try to add either Va Tech or West Virginia.

6) Don't think there will be more than 6 12 team BCS conferences. The rest will be non-BCS because of support / attendance issues.

7) The MWC would be at 8 and the WAC at 7 with 5 schools leaving and 2 replacements. I don't think the WAC will survive either unless they merge with the SBC remnants.

[This message has been edited by SMUstang (edited 04-28-2003).]

[This message has been edited by SMUstang (edited 04-28-2003).]

[Charleston Pony]

Under the current BCS format, but moving towards developing a I-A playoff system; my most likely scenario is the formation of 5 BCS conferences with 12 members each. That means the ACC takes on Syracuse, B.C. and Miami. The Big 10 takes Pitt and the Pac 10 takes BYU and ? Meanwhile, the Big East returns to it's bball roots and plays I-AA football. They would have only 11 bball members, so might wish they hadn't alienated Temple, but UMass would be a good replacement for B.C. and create a new rival for UConn...not to mention bringing in another top I-AA football program. West Virginia and Virginia Tech are the ost likely to get screwed in this scenario, but that might lead to the formation of a new group that might include "neighboring" Louisville and Cincy.

Meanwhile, the rest of I-A reorganizes into more regional conferences of 8-12 members, but remains on the outside looking in at the football championship. I see an 8 tram playoff with winners of the 5 BCS conferences and 3 wild cards (giving Notre Dame, the BCS runners-up and at least in theory, the rest of I-A teams a shot at participating)

Bottom line for SMU is a better chance of reuniting with TCU and Houston and the possibility of a more regional alignment, which in and of itself would make our conference affiliation an "upgrade", but not sure it will be a stronger group (from an RPI standpoint) than the current WAC.

[EastStang]

Another ACC scenario, is Virginia Tech and Miami with Syracuse to the ACC. Pitt to Big 10, although that might not happen, and Missouri or ISU would get the nod. The Big question would be in the PAC 10. Who would go if they added a BYU? Colorado has turned them down and likes the Big 12. That will be the biggest ripple that I see. If AFA or Utah joined the PAC 10, and Wyoming went 1-AA the MWC would be down to 5 members. You might then see the 5 MWC teams join with the 5 WAC west teams (assuming SJS gets its act together). A lot of confusion will occur around 2005. We need to have a winning season soon.

[virginiapony]

The chances of Miami entering the ACC is by far the strongest of any of the other teams approached by the ACC. However, they are hesitant to leave a conference they've dominated in their top money making sport, football, for several years.
Boston College will not enter the ACC because it is a typical Big East team. Geographically, it is positioned too far north. Boston College would, then, forfeit attendance because how many students from UNC, NC State, Georgia Tech, etc would actually go to Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. Instead, Boston College would like to keep its much regional, and many times, easier rivals like Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Providence (in basketball), and Connecticut (which joins the Big East football conference in 2005 and is all ready a member of Big East basketball).
Syracuse will not join the ACC, either, because, like BC, they do not want to forfeit traditional, and more regional Big East games. The basketball program does not want to leave the Big East for the same reason that Miami is hesitant for its football team to leave.
Therefore, look for the Big East conference to remain the same for years to come (minus Temple, which is being thrown out of the Big East to make room for UConn in 2005).
As for SMU, haha, I will only hope and pray that we can get into another conference, such as Conference USA, that will allow for more quality, AND more regional competition that would propel SMU into more notoriety in the future.

[EastStang]

I would agree about Boston College. That is why I think the Hokies are more likely to be approached by the ACC. After all UVa. already plays them every year anyway. I also think that the Big 10 will give Notre Dame one last shot, and if rejected ask Pitt to join. If Miami chooses to stay in the Big East, then it will probably remain pretty much intact.

[OldPony]

I would think those clod kickers from the ACC would enjoy a trip to Boston. Any city might be nice. And don't go calling Raleigh a city. The top restaurant is probably Sullivan's.

[Water Pony]

The ACC would need to add either one or three teams (not two) at one-time to get a 10 or 12 Team Conference. Wild possibilities:

- Miami and then
- Virginia Tech
- South Carolina (replaced in the SEC by Louisville)

This would permit Louisville/Kentucky and Clemson/South Carolina rivalries to be matched up in better geographical alignments.

Big East would need to become a NE Conference, perhaps adding Army and Navy, while retaining Temple. Pitt is the logical choice for the Big Ten, since Syracuseis aligned with NE market and Missouri and Notre Dame won't make the move to Big Ten.

[AusTxPony]

Wait a minute Water, too much practice in the pool! Why would Missouri not move to Big 10? They do nothing much in Big 12, and would increase revenue and maybe attendance in Big 10. I think ACC in the driver's seat will take 3 teams including Miami, Va Tech and BC or Syr. Unless Va objects. Pitt would be fools to leave WVa behind, their biggest rivalry...but if invited to Big 10 who could say no? Well, Notre Dame...they WILL say NO in football especially with a new, winning coach. They can say yes anytime and which conferecnce won't take them? I still believe that leaves Big East with a raid on CUSA (Cin, Louisville, and maybe Marshall), but doubt the last. CUSA should drop Army, S.Fla and move to Texas...but will they? Does TCU and HOUSTON really want SMU and Rice? In my opinion, Houston is a loser...no attendance and no tradition, but they got a vote! Go Rice, SMU and UTEP, LaTech or Tulsa to replace Cin, Louisville, and Army. Who do we want to hang with? UTEP, TULSA or RICE? Votes anyone?

[Charleston Pony]

Missou would be a good fit in a Big 10 west, along with Iowa, Minn, Wisc, Ill & Northwestern...but they'd be a consolation pick for that league. Big 10 wants Notre Dame, who just might be coerced to join if the Big East looks like it might collapse. Otherwise, Penn State wants Pitt and they're another good choice. Syracuse is another Big 10 "possible".

Miami, Syracuse and B.C. apparently all have the same initial reaction, i.e., they like the Big East and don't necessarily want to move, but if one goes...the others might be forced to go rather than wait around for the demise of Big East football. The Big East is not in a position to court others to join their league, because of the "football only vs all sports" invite. CUSA has the same issue because of their bball/no football members.

Notre Dame obviously doesn't want to share their football jackpot, and they just might go independent in all other sports if it comes to that. There's no question but that the Big East has been good for their hoops program, so they might be a welcome member if the Big East becomes a bball conference again.

I've read over the years that a lot of Virginia people don't want Va Tech, and the ACC will always have a strong bball influence. I think Syracuse and B.C. will be offered before Va Tech, but Miami remains the key.

Who knows what ultimately happens to CUSA, MWC & WAC. The BCS conferences clearly control future alignments. Anyone in a mid-major conference would jump at the opportunity to join a BCS group, but if everyone goes to 12 teams, I think we will see one less BCS conference. That, IMO, will leave the mid-majors scrambling to put together more regional alignments and I continue to believe that some of the CUSA members (Louisville & Cincy in particular) will be attracted to W.Va and Va Tech if they are available. Remember that Va Tech was once a Metro conference school.

As for the comment about Houston being a "loser", well...so are we in most people's eyes. We remain good conference mates, along with TCU, Rice and other area mid-majors. But for the BCS money they'd give up, I'm sure Baylor would rather compete with that group than the big state schools of the Big XII