Texas-Oklahoma reach out to SEC

[birddogger]

Personal theory - this is being driven by ESPN to get out of the Longhorn Contract and to force everyone to 4 16 team conferences and keep the playoff at 4 teams.

I'm starting to think A&M leaked it to stop it from happening.

Reality - I don't think it will happen because the Longhorn Network contract is too big. ESPN would have to pay a huge buyout for the switch to make economic sense for UT. But we will see.

For SMU - the Big 12 as it stands has no commercial value. UT blamed the SWC for their lack of national success and ran to the Big 12, and it looks like they are doing the same thing here. IF this thing moves to 4 huge conferences, there is no way SMU should join the Big 12, because it is quickly going to fall apart as the northern teams get absorbed by the Big 10. Even if things don't move in that direction, they would be better off in the AAC and picking and choosing what Big 12 schools they would like to join the conference.

Couldn't agree more, except about the Longhorn Network contract. By all accounts, it is a big loser and UT and ESPN have become the victim of their own greed. ESPN needs to cut costs and has likely urged UT to move on from this albatross. ESPN may have even suggested to UT that it will cancel the contract and pay a termination fee. (I'm sure Disney's attorneys can find a loophole or good cause for termination. If not, UT collects a judgment or termination fee but has no TV contract, which is likely worse in the long run.) If that's the case, UT's best option is to join the SEC and have the new superconference negotiate a higher-octane TV contract.

Money aside, UT faces a Hobson's Choice. It will either cede its title of Tallest Midget in a mediocre football conference, or be an also-ran in the brutal semi-pro SEC. We can relish that, at least.

Back to us: Why do we believe we're the school of choice for the 12-2? Arguably, Cincy, UH or even Memphis offer as much or more TV-market-wise for the rebuilt conference, and all are above average 2-sport programs. I don't think we can assume an invitation.

Even if we were asked, do we accept the risk of joining a conference built on quicksand? We cannot presume all of the leftovers will stay. Any one of more could re-align to suit their needs. Further, should we assume that the ESPN-controlled bowl alliances will not be disturbed? This is about TV revenues, after all, and we, ISU, KState, TCU, etc don't bring in a ton of viewers, either in regular season or bowl season. The 12-2 will lose at least 2 bowls if UT and OU leave.

Although it's unlikely, I would not be shocked if a blended 16-team conference of some of the AAC schools and Big 12-2 might be proposed, with a spot in the 12-team playoff allotted to the conference winner. This is all up to ESPN, the lord and master of college football, of course.

In any event, I hope that if we are offered a move "up" to a new cornfield conference our AD utilizes the excellent resources and minds at the Cox School of Business to game theory the scenarios and analyze what's best for us.

Best to all...

[mustang1108]

I agree with you Birddogger. I don't see why people think we would be automatically be in the 4 teams that would move to the big x-ii.
The first team that the Big x-ii would be looking at should be UCF. They have built a brand in football and have would give the conference a presence in Florida, which is always one of the best recruiting areas in the country. After UCF, I think they would go after Cincy and Memphis based on their recent success in football and history in basketball.
I honestly think if the Big x-ii invades the AAC they will take only 1 school from Texas whether it is us or Houston. Unfortunately, they already have a footprint in DFW with TCU and they have long missed the Houston area after A&M left. Not to be all doom and gloom, but I think Houston would be picked over us if the Big x-ii invaded the AAC.

[ponyboy]

No doubt in my mind that Houston would be a first choice in this great state. But SMU is looking more and more attractive ΓÇö unless of course our Aggy (TCU) throws another leaping fit.

[GrapevineMustang]

That might mean Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, and Houston to the Big 12.

Or it might mean the Big 12 collapses entirely. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would find new homes, but others could get left scrambling

[GrapevineMustang]

Saw mention on ESPN. I canΓÇÖt believe UT would humble themselves enough to eat the terms that the SEC would dictate. UT is the middle aged former hot chick.

I'm not sure. UT hasn't won anything since Vince Young, but it still has an enormous fan base and more money than any athletic department in the country. Not saying Texas would dictate to the SEC, but it might be in a position to refuse a poor deal.

[Topper]

A rumor in Austin is that LSU or Arkansas would move to the SEC East in order to keep the Mississippi and Alabama schools together in the West. Either way UT will play a tougher football schedule than the Big 12 where they have only been marginally competitive.

I'm not sure that the Kansas schools would be all that unhappy about playing basketball in a conference with Houston, Memphis, Cinncinnatti or even SMU instead of OU and UT.

UT will not budge unless the dollars make sense. It will be rough trying to rebuild the football program facing SEC competition. I don't know if ESPN has a performance clause in its contract with the Longhorn Network. The coaches don't care for the time they spend dealing with all of the programming.

I have never heard serious talk about SMU to the ACC. Is that even a possibility or is it just wishful thinking?

[mustang1108]

Just donΓÇÖt have the Kansas schools ask for UCONNs opinion

[Terry Webster]

If all of this happens and the ACC comes calling for Cinci they will head there in a minute.

[PNW_Stang]

I mean the LHN needs to be terminated. People can only watch the 2011 UT vs A&M game so many times

[redpony]

If those two bolt then I can see a possible merger between AAC and the big left-overs. Add TT, TCU, Okie light and one other school -not named baylor- and drop tiny tulsa and temple. That could result in a very good P5 conference. Let the others scramble for a place at the table.

[DanFreibergerForHeisman]

Starting to sound like it's a done deal.

I will always remain optimistic but I have a feeling this doesn't end well for the Ponies.

[shadowman]

Starting to sound like it's a done deal.

I will always remain optimistic but I have a feeling this doesn't end well for the Ponies.

Yes, seems very clear this will happen. UT and OU have not denied it and they did not attend the Conference emergency meeting yesterday. The deal is already done.

There are many ways this could be good for SMU and bad for SMU, and history dictates we get the short end of the stick. Who knows, maybe we can change our luck around.

Worst case for SMU is that the BIG 12 stays together and guts the AAC of our best teams (Houston, Cincy, Memphis, UCF) and SMU is not included and gets left stuck in a conference with just bottom feeders left. This scenario has happened several times in the last couple of decades. Best case was mentioned in the DMN today, that the Tech, Baylor, TCU and OKIE State will look to form a new conference more regional based and include Houston and SMU.

I know there is optimism and some joy in the Big12 falling apart, but I got a bad feeling about this!

[Mustangs35SMU]

Starting to sound like it's a done deal.

I will always remain optimistic but I have a feeling this doesn't end well for the Ponies.

Honestly feel like SMU is in the best position they've been in probably since the SWC.

I'm refusing to let this become a doom and gloom for myself. If asked, no doubt it would be an extremely tough decision to go to the Big 12 or stay in the AAC. The idea of seeing Kansas at Moody on a yearly basis is no doubt an extremely exciting one. Even without Texas and OU in the Big 12 for football, having a yearly schedule with Baylor/TCU/Tech/Okie State on it is still better than thinking about Tulane and Tulsa every year.

I do think TCU, and maybe even Baylor, would throw a big fit if we were asked to join.

[AusTxPony]

My head is spinning. Best option for SMU if they leave is the PAC taking six Central Time Zone schools. SMU, UH, TCU, Tech, OSU and KU and pairing them with the Arizona/Colorado schools. The Pacific Soutwest Conference, leaving BYU and Baylor, religious schools, alone.

[Water Pony]

Although our almost 25 year journey through purgatory has been long and frustrating, I am more optimistic about our future in college football.

Due in no small part to Sonny and his coaches, SMU is worthy of serious consideration in a larger conference. Add to that the rich history of our brand and, most importantly, our location in a terrific metropolitan media market (especially in the rich recruiting bed of North Texas), SMU should be on the list of the most non-SEC college conferences.

Traveling to play us in Dallas is a Win-Win for any college. The Big XII is the more likely possibility for us; but you could make a case that PAC 12 could enter the Texas market with a strong academic university in DFW, as I don't see much better options for them to expand their media market. Package us with Houston or even Rice and you get the two biggest markets in the SW. Although ACC could take ND (unlikely) WVU, Cincinnati or UCF, we could be a interesting option for them to entertain, along with Houston.

We may not be the first option for some, but SMU will be discussed when the first and second moves are made.