Thoughts on Cincy

[JasonB]

- Not to state the obvious, but the wind had a massive impact on the game. And it wasn't just us - go check out Ewers' stats for UT yesterday. I felt going in that Cincy had an advantage, but the wind gave them a gigantic advantage because their running game is so much better than ours. If you told me going in that the conditions would make passing that difficult, I would have put Cincy to win by 14.
- Lots of plays in the game, but we lost because we lost the turnover battle 1-0 and gave them three points. That early pick ended up being the difference in the game. Great job by the defense to hold them to 3, but that really cost us.
- Symons has done a great job of adjusting to personnel and flipping back and forth between the 3-4 and the 4-2-5. 91 and 98 are both playing much better than they did at the beginning of the season. Still not getting enough production out of Chatman and Levelston as we would like, but the DTs overall are holding their own now more like we expected coming into the season.
- Most surprising part to me yesterday was that our DEs weren't able to generate as much pressure as I thought they would. Cincy has a pretty high sack rate given up. Probably because we were focused on defending the run, but I expected more.
- A little disappointing that we didn't clog the middle better on pass plays. Especially when Cincy was going against the wind, we needed to force them to throw to the outside, but they hit several passes right over the middle for easy conversions. We just aren't where we need to be athletically at LB and S.
- On offense, TM had a really bad game. If I were to take a really critical eye, I would say at the beginning of the year, he got bailed out locking on Rice and throwing it up for him to get. Once Rice got hurt, that went away, and the passing game has been less consistent. There is a lot of Ben Hicks and Bo Levi showing up and it kills the rhythm of the offense. Stick with the top option too long, then by the time you get to the others, they are almost through their routes, so you lose the opportunity to take a shot, and it becomes playground ball/scramble drill with a QB who doesn't run enough. Then you add yesterday not throwing the ball away to avoid sacks... just not a good performance at all.
- Stone - You could see in the game that when he throws a deep ball, he puts arc under it to try and allow receivers to make a play on the ball. It didn't work (and was a little naive) yesterday because the wind just takes those types of throws and puts them 20 yards beyond the WR. He is also going to tuck it and run a lot more frequently, and runs a true zone read on the RPO, which helps the offense a bit. It is an aspect that is important to the RL offense, and something he has never had here. He is also definitely going to get nicked up, so you need players in the wings ready to go. Just remember, his drives were significantly aided by penalties. He is going to be hit and miss. If I were RL, I would actually start TM and then plan to alternate every time a drive doesn't finish in points. TM and PS are such different QBs, it is a nightmare for a DC to plan for, and I would use it to our advantage.
- I wrote a way too long winded dissection of the running game last week, and with Wheaton starting and Levine playing a lot you can see what is happening. Our OL wins in blocking their assignments, they just don't get out to the next level. When our other backs run, the running plays are slow to develop, so the LBs fill the holes and stop us. Wheaton hits the hole before the other team can react, takes advantage of some good blocks, and gets out in the open. That is what we need. Levine is effective because even though he doesn't hit the hole as quick, he is big enough to run over the LB or S who tries to fill the gap, and he can get 3 or 4 yards. We need to stick with those two moving forward and stop trying to run plays to the outside and expecting our guys to hold their blocks for a long time or move the second level. Good adjustment in the running attack, and it is nice to see Wheaton start to get healthy and we can see what he brings to the table.
- Finally, our secondary players need to start showing up. One of the most disappointing parts of the season has been the inability of Maryland, Dixon, Kerley, Daniels and Goffney to consistently make plays. The first four have the athletic ability to make big plays, and Goffney wins his routes enough to be a consistent receiver. Part of it is TM not checking to other routes quick enough, so maybe we see more productivity with him coming into the game. But It has been disappointing so far.

I'll close with this - the "November swoon" under Sonny was never really a thing. The fact is that, including this year, for the last 4 years, we beat the teams we should beat, and then we find ways to lose to really good teams. Yes, Sonny found ways to beat TCU, but those TCU teams were not really good. They weren't a top 10 team. For the most part, we end up beating teams that are below us in the 247 composite rankings, and we lose to the teams that are above us (although usually those games are really competitive). Yes, there were occasional gaffes against worse teams after we lost our undefeated run, but by and large the schedules were always backloaded and it allowed us to run up a great record against bad teams.

[Topper]

I have been really disappointed with our running game. Thanks for the analysis re the OL. Looking forward to great things from Wheaton. Agree that the wind played havoc yesterday.

[ALEX LIFESON]

Bam Bam Levine and Wheaton, have been my Battle Cry for the last several weeks now.

[Terry Webster]

Wheaton had a good first half but didn't appear much in the second. Reason?

[Caballo]

What are the thoughts on the onside kick at the end of the game?

We had two timeouts, and the wind at our backs. Cincy would have got the ball on their own 25, and they were facing a stiff wind. That deep in their end of the field they would likely be much more conservative since a turnover gives us an easy FG. We held them there by taking our TO's we still have about 40-45 seconds with the wind behind us for a long FG.

An onside kick has a very limited chance of success, especially when the receiving team is expecting it.

[ALEX LIFESON]

Wheaton had a good first half but didn't appear much in the second. Reason?

Limped to the sideline in the 4th.

[Topper]

What are the thoughts on the onside kick at the end of the game?

We had two timeouts, and the wind at our backs. Cincy would have got the ball on their own 25, and they were facing a stiff wind. That deep in their end of the field they would likely be much more conservative since a turnover gives us an easy FG. We held them there by taking our TO's we still have about 40-45 seconds with the wind behind us for a long FG.

An onside kick has a very limited chance of success, especially when the receiving team is expecting it.

My gut feeling at the moment was that our defense wouldn't hold. I would have kicked also.

[ponyte]

I played particular attention to the receivers. Sadly, often they were loafing. As a group they didn't come off the line with explosiveness and purpose. I knew the run plays by the lackadazical effort to engage in blocking.

The routes were rather pedestrian. I thought we would have done some adjustments to get some guys open more.

I know TM had a rough game but the receivers did very little to get separation and open.

I was impressed by the D especially in the 3rd quarter. To hold Cincey to FGs with the wind at their back and keep it a two passion game was a huge accomplishment. And do it with Cincey having excellent field passion every series.

I know its arm chair but I thought we would take the wind in the 3rd quarter. We were behind, did nada into the wind the first half and had a stellar 2nd quarter with the wind. We were behind and to close and take the lead in the 3rd with the D playing well would have been our better chance of winning. But then again we almost pulled a tie off taking the wind in the 4th quarter.

Preston added the run to the equation and I think that was just enough to help the Oline and receivers

Overall we did much better than I expected.. saw better discipline on D. Still lacked execution on O. I don't think our rookie HC made as many rookie mistakes this game

[ojaipony]

- Not to state the obvious, but the wind had a massive impact on the game. And it wasn't just us - go check out Ewers' stats for UT yesterday. I felt going in that Cincy had an advantage, but the wind gave them a gigantic advantage because their running game is so much better than ours. If you told me going in that the conditions would make passing that difficult, I would have put Cincy to win by 14.
- Lots of plays in the game, but we lost because we lost the turnover battle 1-0 and gave them three points. That early pick ended up being the difference in the game. Great job by the defense to hold them to 3, but that really cost us.
- Symons has done a great job of adjusting to personnel and flipping back and forth between the 3-4 and the 4-2-5. 91 and 98 are both playing much better than they did at the beginning of the season. Still not getting enough production out of Chatman and Levelston as we would like, but the DTs overall are holding their own now more like we expected coming into the season.
- Most surprising part to me yesterday was that our DEs weren't able to generate as much pressure as I thought they would. Cincy has a pretty high sack rate given up. Probably because we were focused on defending the run, but I expected more.
- A little disappointing that we didn't clog the middle better on pass plays. Especially when Cincy was going against the wind, we needed to force them to throw to the outside, but they hit several passes right over the middle for easy conversions. We just aren't where we need to be athletically at LB and S.
- On offense, TM had a really bad game. If I were to take a really critical eye, I would say at the beginning of the year, he got bailed out locking on Rice and throwing it up for him to get. Once Rice got hurt, that went away, and the passing game has been less consistent. There is a lot of Ben Hicks and Bo Levi showing up and it kills the rhythm of the offense. Stick with the top option too long, then by the time you get to the others, they are almost through their routes, so you lose the opportunity to take a shot, and it becomes playground ball/scramble drill with a QB who doesn't run enough. Then you add yesterday not throwing the ball away to avoid sacks... just not a good performance at all.
- Stone - You could see in the game that when he throws a deep ball, he puts arc under it to try and allow receivers to make a play on the ball. It didn't work (and was a little naive) yesterday because the wind just takes those types of throws and puts them 20 yards beyond the WR. He is also going to tuck it and run a lot more frequently, and runs a true zone read on the RPO, which helps the offense a bit. It is an aspect that is important to the RL offense, and something he has never had here. He is also definitely going to get nicked up, so you need players in the wings ready to go. Just remember, his drives were significantly aided by penalties. He is going to be hit and miss. If I were RL, I would actually start TM and then plan to alternate every time a drive doesn't finish in points. TM and PS are such different QBs, it is a nightmare for a DC to plan for, and I would use it to our advantage.
- I wrote a way too long winded dissection of the running game last week, and with Wheaton starting and Levine playing a lot you can see what is happening. Our OL wins in blocking their assignments, they just don't get out to the next level. When our other backs run, the running plays are slow to develop, so the LBs fill the holes and stop us. Wheaton hits the hole before the other team can react, takes advantage of some good blocks, and gets out in the open. That is what we need. Levine is effective because even though he doesn't hit the hole as quick, he is big enough to run over the LB or S who tries to fill the gap, and he can get 3 or 4 yards. We need to stick with those two moving forward and stop trying to run plays to the outside and expecting our guys to hold their blocks for a long time or move the second level. Good adjustment in the running attack, and it is nice to see Wheaton start to get healthy and we can see what he brings to the table.
- Finally, our secondary players need to start showing up. One of the most disappointing parts of the season has been the inability of Maryland, Dixon, Kerley, Daniels and Goffney to consistently make plays. The first four have the athletic ability to make big plays, and Goffney wins his routes enough to be a consistent receiver. Part of it is TM not checking to other routes quick enough, so maybe we see more productivity with him coming into the game. But It has been disappointing so far.

I'll close with this - the "November swoon" under Sonny was never really a thing. The fact is that, including this year, for the last 4 years, we beat the teams we should beat, and then we find ways to lose to really good teams. Yes, Sonny found ways to beat TCU, but those TCU teams were not really good. They weren't a top 10 team. For the most part, we end up beating teams that are below us in the 247 composite rankings, and we lose to the teams that are above us (although usually those games are really competitive). Yes, there were occasional gaffes against worse teams after we lost our undefeated run, but by and large the schedules were always backloaded and it allowed us to run up a great record against bad teams.

Great analysis about run game and scheduling/record. I've been "yelling both of these things at the top of my lungs" on another site and some see it, many don't. It's so obvious. Pony up.

[ALEX LIFESON]

I played particular attention to the receivers. Sadly, often they were loafing. As a group they didn't come off the line with explosiveness and purpose. I knew the run plays by the lackadazical effort to engage in blocking.

The routes were rather pedestrian. I thought we would have done some adjustments to get some guys open more.

I know TM had a rough game but the receivers did very little to get separation and open.

I was impressed by the D especially in the 3rd quarter. To hold Cincey to FGs with the wind at their back and keep it a two passion game was a huge accomplishment. And do it with Cincey having excellent field passion every series.

I know its arm chair but I thought we would take the wind in the 3rd quarter. We were behind, did nada into the wind the first half and had a stellar 2nd quarter with the wind. We were behind and to close and take the lead in the 3rd with the D playing well would have been our better chance of winning. But then again we almost pulled a tie off taking the wind in the 4th quarter.

Preston added the run to the equation and I think that was just enough to help the Oline and receivers

Overall we did much better than I expected.. saw better discipline on D. Still lacked execution on O. I don't think our rookie HC made as many rookie mistakes this game

I re-watched much of the game as well, and noticed similar things about the receivers. People complain about the high number of targets to Rice, but between, lazy, half speed routes and the inability to get any separation, the QB's don't have much of a choice. Roderick Daniels was wearing his defender, I don't want to hear any more complaints from him.

[JasonB]

What are the thoughts on the onside kick at the end of the game?

We had two timeouts, and the wind at our backs. Cincy would have got the ball on their own 25, and they were facing a stiff wind. That deep in their end of the field they would likely be much more conservative since a turnover gives us an easy FG. We held them there by taking our TO's we still have about 40-45 seconds with the wind behind us for a long FG.

An onside kick has a very limited chance of success, especially when the receiving team is expecting it.

Had a big discussion about that in the stands with people around me as well. I would have kicked because if you stop them you get the ball back in great field position. But I think the thought was that you give yourselves two chances to get the ball by trying the onsides kick. I probably wouldn't have done it, but I don't blame them for trying.

[JasonB]

I played particular attention to the receivers. Sadly, often they were loafing. As a group they didn't come off the line with explosiveness and purpose. I knew the run plays by the lackadazical effort to engage in blocking.

The routes were rather pedestrian. I thought we would have done some adjustments to get some guys open more.

I know TM had a rough game but the receivers did very little to get separation and open.

I was impressed by the D especially in the 3rd quarter. To hold Cincey to FGs with the wind at their back and keep it a two passion game was a huge accomplishment. And do it with Cincey having excellent field passion every series.

I know its arm chair but I thought we would take the wind in the 3rd quarter. We were behind, did nada into the wind the first half and had a stellar 2nd quarter with the wind. We were behind and to close and take the lead in the 3rd with the D playing well would have been our better chance of winning. But then again we almost pulled a tie off taking the wind in the 4th quarter.

Preston added the run to the equation and I think that was just enough to help the Oline and receivers

Overall we did much better than I expected.. saw better discipline on D. Still lacked execution on O. I don't think our rookie HC made as many rookie mistakes this game

All things considered, the two differences in the game were the int for 3 points and the 8 minute drive Cincy put together in the start of the 4th. We didn't touch the ball in the 4th until there were only 7 minutes left.

[BUS]

I want to make one point....point... times 5.

With 4th and 4 why give a 10 yard cushion. Happened all the time... and that... that is why we lost.

Man up on 3rd and 4th down and make them EARN it.

[Charleston Pony]

I played particular attention to the receivers. Sadly, often they were loafing. As a group they didn't come off the line with explosiveness and purpose. I knew the run plays by the lackadazical effort to engage in blocking.

The routes were rather pedestrian. I thought we would have done some adjustments to get some guys open more.

I know TM had a rough game but the receivers did very little to get separation and open.

I haven't had the luxury of being at the games and watching on TV it's impossible to see what our receivers are doing so that's been my question all along, i.e., does Tanner just not see the field well and takes too long to go through his progressions or are our guys just not getting any separation? Thanks for sharing this information. Coach Likens needs to get on his guys to give 100% on every play because we have enough depth at the position to allow serious competition for playing time

[Arkpony]

I put great faith in Ponyte’s analysis of the receivers. He was one of the best at SMU during the Piny Express days. But how do they fix that?