W2W4 - Houston

[JasonB]

Another big game this Saturday, with the loser out of the race to try to break into the conference championship game.

Houston started the season as a dark horse to run the table and break into the CFP discussion, but things just haven't clicked. Although they beat UTSA to open the season, the signs were there that things weren't quite right, as they had to come back to win in overtime. They then traveled to Tech to lose to an average TT team, before getting outplayed by what we know now is a pretty good Kansas team (pre QB injury). Another close loss to Tulane followed a victory over Rice, and then finally in the 4th quarter of the Memphis comeback win, things started to click, and they come in winning three straight.

Similar to SMU, Houston tried hard to find a way to lose the close games. While SMU committed costly turnovers, for Houston it has been an underperforming defense and penalties that have been the main culprit. Really, penalties are the only thing that have stopped the Houston offense; while SMU's offensive line has committed 12 penalties (a total of 18 on the offense), Houston's OL has committed 35! (43 overall on offense)

Tune is having a fantastic season offensively, and has three good running backs and a good recieving corp led by Dell, who is one of the top recievers in the country. On that side of the ball, the game is going to come down to whether or not SMU can continue its strong performance of late from the DL and force Houston's OL to commit penalties and allow negative plays. Houston's offense is only "okay" in the analytics, but the reality is that it is only because of the penalties that absolutely kill their drives. Their OL statistically is okay in every other aspect outside of the penalties, so the ability of the SMU defensive line to force penalties and create pressure is key. SMU needs to limit explosive plays and force Houston to put together long drives where they have more opportunities to make mistakes.

The Houston defense has really struggled this season, and it is why the analytics pick SMU to win. Parish was their best player, and he is out of the season. That said, they have some excellent DE. and a solid interior line. LB and one Safety have been their big issues this season. The really painful matchup here for Houston is that they really struggle in pass defense, and SMU is one of the top explosive play offenses in the country, while Houston is in the 100s in explosive plays given up. Rice and Kerley, if healthy, will have opportunities to create big plays against Houston. Houston also struggles to create impact plays that get the team off the field defensively, while SMU on defense primarily gets off the field by coming up with a sack, tackle for a loss, or forces a penalty.

So, can SMU get sacks and force penalties to get Houston off the field? Can the SMU offense hit the explosive plays to take advantage of a weak Houston secondary? The variables here are the health of TM and the WR receiving corps. How much of Tanner's struggles were due to that hit in the TCU game, and how much has two weeks healed him? Are we going to get the Rice that showed up against Tulsa, or will he be physically limited? How much do we get from Kerley?

The thing I can't shake is that our offense is good enough to overcome some inconsistency to score points against bad teams, but is just inconsistent enough against the good teams that there are dead periods during the game. I also feel like Houston finds ways to clean things up before they play us. I think that this game has the potential to be really high scoring, and a TM turnover or a dead period from the SMU offense during the game gives Houston the game, 42-34.

[SMU_Alum11]

Boooo

[Charleston Pony]

But we can surely count on that huge home crowd at Ford to provide our guys the adrenaline rush they need to own the 4th quarter and pull this one out. That's what home field advantage is all about, right?

[Smumba2009]

But we can surely count on that huge home crowd at Ford to provide our guys the adrenaline rush they need to own the 4th quarter and pull this one out. That's what home field advantage is all about, right?

I'll be there and extra rowdy baby

[JasonB]

Boooo

I know. I want to pick us. But their wins @UTSA and @Memphis are better than any win we have on our resume this season, and Tune is on fire.

[Dukie]

But we can surely count on that huge home crowd at Ford to provide our guys the adrenaline rush they need to own the 4th quarter and pull this one out. That's what home field advantage is all about, right?

I'll be there and extra rowdy baby

I’m just going to be regular rowdy but definitely there.

[dalpony]

Jason B - would really appreciate your post game analysis of our game against Houston - your analysis is always enjoyable to read and I learned a lot - thank you in advance

[BUS]

Ditto on game recap.