Realignment Update

[Topper]

ACC just did a deal with The CW. ESPN is broke. Pac12's only hope is that LIV or Apple somehow magically saves them Steve Jobs 1997 style.

https://theacc.com/news/2023/7/13/gener ... -fall.aspx

Unless ESPN can find a savior within Disney or from highly capitalized 3rd parties look for them to renegotiate their Big 12 contract.

[WordUpBU]

ACC just did a deal with The CW. ESPN is broke. Pac12's only hope is that LIV or Apple somehow magically saves them Steve Jobs 1997 style.

https://theacc.com/news/2023/7/13/gener ... -fall.aspx

Unless ESPN can find a savior within Disney or from highly capitalized 3rd parties look for them to renegotiate their Big 12 contract.

Depends on if they have any real actionable option to do so in the contract. I'd view it as highly unlikely since they JUST finalized it.

[WordUpBU]

Today, Greg Swaim (who seems rather biased against the P12) confirms (on the platform formerly known as Twitter) that the Pac12 has been offered a deal by the CW for a Tuesday and Wednesday evening broadcast game each week.

The upside to that obviously is that anyone with a set of rabbit ears or basic cable can tune into the games.

Prior to this news, Swaim stated that the best media deal on the table was $12M less (in total or per school he didn't say) than the Big12, of which only 20% was linear/broadcast.

https://twitter.com/GSwaim

As a Big 12 fan who has been through this a few times... Swaim isn't reliable. This sounds like a trolling attempt.

CW has already announced their weeknight prime time lineup. I doubt they are reversing course this late.

[Topper]

ACC just did a deal with The CW. ESPN is broke. Pac12's only hope is that LIV or Apple somehow magically saves them Steve Jobs 1997 style.

https://theacc.com/news/2023/7/13/gener ... -fall.aspx

Unless ESPN can find a savior within Disney or from highly capitalized 3rd parties look for them to renegotiate their Big 12 contract.

Depends on if they have any real actionable option to do so in the contract. I'd view it as highly unlikely since they JUST finalized it.

When a party to a contract is unable to fulfill its financial obligations everything is subject to renegotiation or even cancellation of the obligation in bankruptcy court, upon threat of bankruptcy, or in the course of the collection process. Blood cannot be drained from a turnip.

[mtrout]

What turnip is the Pac12 planning to get blood from?

[Topper]

What turnip is the Pac12 planning to get blood from?

That remains to be seen. I listened to a media "expert" yesterday on a podcast. He said that Apple has all the money in the world and that they want to spend on sports programming including the PAC. Problem is, according to the man, Apple wants to own the whole thing whereas the oldsters who run the universities are skeptical of the lack of exposure absent a traditional broadcast or cable partner. That seems to be the conundrum. Having said that, I think that once UT and OU are gone for good the Big 12 tv ratings drop to record lows with BYU the only national brand drawing numbers. ESPN will need to bail. Contracts are meant to be broken especially when the breaching party is broke.

[WordUpBU]

Unless ESPN can find a savior within Disney or from highly capitalized 3rd parties look for them to renegotiate their Big 12 contract.

Depends on if they have any real actionable option to do so in the contract. I'd view it as highly unlikely since they JUST finalized it.

When a party to a contract is unable to fulfill its financial obligations everything is subject to renegotiation or even cancellation of the obligation in bankruptcy court, upon threat of bankruptcy, or in the course of the collection process. Blood cannot be drained from a turnip.

The odds of bankruptcy being an intentional out on this contract that was just signed is highly unlikely. ESPN doesn't have the deep pockets they used to but this is a bit hyperbolic to say the least.

As for why the ACC did a deal with the CW, the CW can promise more exposure than ESPN likely would for those games. If ESPN gets those back it's likely straight to espn+ to make 15 more fanbases subscribe. With ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 mostly full it's not like ESPN can pay up for high ad rates on ESPNU to pay up for those rights in the time slots the ACC competes in.

[WordUpBU]

What turnip is the Pac12 planning to get blood from?

That remains to be seen. I listened to a media "expert" yesterday on a podcast. He said that Apple has all the money in the world and that they want to spend on sports programming including the PAC. Problem is, according to the man, Apple wants to own the whole thing whereas the oldsters who run the universities are skeptical of the lack of exposure absent a traditional broadcast or cable partner. That seems to be the conundrum. Having said that, I think that once UT and OU are gone for good the Big 12 tv ratings drop to record lows with BYU the only national brand drawing numbers. ESPN will need to bail. Contracts are meant to be broken especially when the breaching party is broke.

The exposure is a big concern for the PAC. Unless major linear players come back the visibility will be a big step down from the prior decade. The streaming aspect will be as well. Streaming will be a bigger deal in a decade but this deal might go for half that tenure.

Your view on the Big 12 is very much coming across as wishful thinking- this deal was negotiated with UT and OU for sure gone. You really think BOTH of ESPN and FOX didn't use the extremely detailed data they have to project out realistic viewership?!?!?

[Topper]

What turnip is the Pac12 planning to get blood from?

That remains to be seen. I listened to a media "expert" yesterday on a podcast. He said that Apple has all the money in the world and that they want to spend on sports programming including the PAC. Problem is, according to the man, Apple wants to own the whole thing whereas the oldsters who run the universities are skeptical of the lack of exposure absent a traditional broadcast or cable partner. That seems to be the conundrum. Having said that, I think that once UT and OU are gone for good the Big 12 tv ratings drop to record lows with BYU the only national brand drawing numbers. ESPN will need to bail. Contracts are meant to be broken especially when the breaching party is broke.

The exposure is a big concern for the PAC. Unless major linear players come back the visibility will be a big step down from the prior decade. The streaming aspect will be as well. Streaming will be a bigger deal in a decade but this deal might go for half that tenure.

Your view on the Big 12 is very much coming across as wishful thinking- this deal was negotiated with UT and OU for sure gone. You really think BOTH of ESPN and FOX didn't use the extremely detailed data they have to project out realistic viewership?!?!?

You are delusional if you think that the Big 12 TV numbers will not reach record lows without UT an OU. The Big 12 has lost teams accounting for 21 championships in football over its 27 years. It has picked up some commuter schools and another church school. When BYU is the big draw, that spells trouble my friend.

[WordUpBU]

That remains to be seen. I listened to a media "expert" yesterday on a podcast. He said that Apple has all the money in the world and that they want to spend on sports programming including the PAC. Problem is, according to the man, Apple wants to own the whole thing whereas the oldsters who run the universities are skeptical of the lack of exposure absent a traditional broadcast or cable partner. That seems to be the conundrum. Having said that, I think that once UT and OU are gone for good the Big 12 tv ratings drop to record lows with BYU the only national brand drawing numbers. ESPN will need to bail. Contracts are meant to be broken especially when the breaching party is broke.

The exposure is a big concern for the PAC. Unless major linear players come back the visibility will be a big step down from the prior decade. The streaming aspect will be as well. Streaming will be a bigger deal in a decade but this deal might go for half that tenure.

Your view on the Big 12 is very much coming across as wishful thinking- this deal was negotiated with UT and OU for sure gone. You really think BOTH of ESPN and FOX didn't use the extremely detailed data they have to project out realistic viewership?!?!?

You are delusional if you think that the Big 12 TV numbers will not reach record lows without UT an OU. The Big 12 has lost teams accounting for 21 championships in football over its 27 years. It has picked up some commuter schools and another church school. When BYU is the big draw, that spells trouble my friend.

Straw man argument. I am not arguing ratings won't take a hit without them. I am arguing that FOX & ESPN know exactly what they got into and won't "need to bail" unless the entire ESPN ship goes down.

You are delusional if you think either FOX or ESPN (much less both) didn't project out viewership expectations with that in mind and price the new contract with that adjusted number in mind.

[Red Dragon Coog]

Cope harder SMU. Colorado is gone.


https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/stat ... 2671708210

[WordUpBU]

With CU gone it's a lock that the PAC moves on SDSU.

If another goes I think SMU Is 100% in.

[PonyME]

Reality is setting in for all parties after the PAC lost whatever small bargaining chip they MAY have had to cobble something together in terms of momentum for expansion and a deal last Spring (as mentioned, lost opportunity). But given the current situation I agree that Colorado+ moving to the 12 is good news for SMU at this point. It may be a heavily diluted PAC but the name and P5 status will continue…if added it will be up to us to actually perform over the next 3-5 yrs to elevate the new PAC. Fingers crossed…either way it should be an exciting next few years on the field, we’re loaded!

[Red Dragon Coog]

It's official


https://twitter.com/brett_mcmurphy/stat ... 99138?s=46

[DallasMustang11]

It's official


https://twitter.com/brett_mcmurphy/stat ... 99138?s=46

Man it’s hard for me to see this as anything but bad news. CU leaving may not mean much but now that one is out the door how much harder will it be to keep ASU and/or Arizona.