Pac-12 expansion?

[PonyPride]

Whatever remains of the Pac-12 has said its focus is on expansion, not collapse — not an unexpected stance — and everyone knows the last week has been insane. But someone named Jim Williams, who bills himself as a "media consultant and Emmy Award-winning TV producer and director posted a list of schools that already filed paperwork asking to join the (pre-implosion) Pac-12.

In addition to SMU, he listed Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Tulane, USF, Memphis, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulsa, Rice and New Mexico State.

How many of those schools remain interested is not known, or at least has not been made public. But if the Pac-12 stays afloat with Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford, and they're able to add some combination of those schools above — maybe SMU, Colorado State, San Diego State, Tulane, Memphis and Boise State — that would bring it back to an actual "Pac-10" and could represent a decent, if not elite, conference.

With the reduced TV money, maybe they would drop the eastern-most schools, Memphis and Tulane (hopefully not SMU) in favor of UNLV and Fresno State or something.

Yes, this is just showing an idea against the wall to see what sticks, and I have no idea if Williams has any credibility — maybe his post came after a few too many the night before. But if he has any actual insight, it's interesting to consider.

[FroggieFever]

Whatever remains of the Pac-12 has said its focus is on expansion, not collapse — not an unexpected stance — and everyone knows the last week has been insane. But someone named Jim Williams, who bills himself as a "media consultant and Emmy Award-winning TV producer and director posted a list of schools that already filed paperwork asking to join the (pre-implosion) Pac-12.

In addition to SMU, he listed Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Tulane, USF, Memphis, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulsa, Rice and New Mexico State.

How many of those schools remain interested is not known, or at least has not been made public. But if the Pac-12 stays afloat with Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford, and they're able to add some combination of those schools above — maybe SMU, Colorado State, San Diego State, Tulane, Memphis and Boise State — that would bring it back to an actual "Pac-10" and could represent a decent, if not elite, conference.

With the reduced TV money, maybe they would drop the eastern-most schools, Memphis and Tulane (hopefully not SMU) in favor of UNLV and Fresno State or something.

Yes, this is just showing an idea against the wall to see what sticks, and I have no idea if Williams has any credibility — maybe his post came after a few too many the night before. But if he has any actual insight, it's interesting to consider.

It is an interesting conversation, especially financially. I imagine there are some meaningful reserves on acct. (Where do those go?)

If I were the four remaining, I am sticking the $50mm-$60mm owed to Comcast on the bandits who left.

Further, a deal still needs to be struck for media rights and time is ticking to get that done before the 2024/2025 season. (Adding to that, who is going to front the buy outs?).

I think the pieces are there but question if Kliavkoff can put them together.

[rodrod5]

The comcast money and any money from the lawsuit from UCLA ditching out of the 2021 Holiday Bowl By Mack Brown will come out of the shares from all the 12 members.

Conferences collect money in one fiscal year and they distribute that money in about May of the next fiscal year. So the PAC 12 fiscal year 2022-23 ended either June 30th or July 31st so the PAC 12 is currently adding up all the money they collected and then it will be distributed in May of 2024.

Then fiscal year 2023-24 (the last year of the current PAC 12 media deal) that just started will be collected up by June or July of next year and available for distribution in May of 2025. So comcast and the Holiday Bowl By Mack Brown have plenty of time to file to have those monies held until any settlement or lawsuit has concluded. In addition comcast has already started withholding money from their payments and will do so again this year so the amount owed will be less than $50 million.

[Water Pony]

Whatever remains of the Pac-12 has said its focus is on expansion, not collapse — not an unexpected stance — and everyone knows the last week has been insane. But someone named Jim Williams, who bills himself as a "media consultant and Emmy Award-winning TV producer and director posted a list of schools that already filed paperwork asking to join the (pre-implosion) Pac-12.

In addition to SMU, he listed Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Tulane, USF, Memphis, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulsa, Rice and New Mexico State.

How many of those schools remain interested is not known, or at least has not been made public. But if the Pac-12 stays afloat with Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford, and they're able to add some combination of those schools above — maybe SMU, Colorado State, San Diego State, Tulane, Memphis and Boise State — that would bring it back to an actual "Pac-10" and could represent a decent, if not elite, conference.

With the reduced TV money, maybe they would drop the eastern-most schools, Memphis and Tulane (hopefully not SMU) in favor of UNLV and Fresno State or something.

Yes, this is just showing an idea against the wall to see what sticks, and I have no idea if Williams has any credibility — maybe his post came after a few too many the night before. But if he has any actual insight, it's interesting to consider.

It is an interesting conversation, especially financially. I imagine there are some meaningful reserves on acct. (Where do those go?)

If I were the four remaining, I am sticking the $50mm-$60mm owed to Comcast on the bandits who left.

Further, a deal still needs to be struck for media rights and time is ticking to get that done before the 2024/2025 season. (Adding to that, who is going to front the buy outs?).

I think the pieces are there but question if Kliavkoff can put them together.

FF, Your point about who would "front the buy outs" is an interesting one. Only Apple (or maybe Amazon) could be the banker on this and commit the revised PAC-12 to a streaming service future. The revenue to the schools would certainly be much less that the reported $23+million presented by Kliavkoff, but perhaps north of what they are facing without it, e.g., merger with MWC which Stanford is likely to oppose. Not good options for Stanford and Cal, whose only other hope is a future invitation by the B1G10.

[rodrod5]

There is no reason to think that the same deals and the same players are involved or will be the only ones involved. In the case of some buyouts from the AAC SMU, Rice, and Tulane should be able to come up with the money to make that happen based on the past 4 immediate buyouts. That would get the PAC 12 to 7 members right there and much more stable and there is no way the NCAA would not give them a waiver for a year or two or three.

With a P5 conference getting $80 million from the college football playoffs and G5 conferences splitting $100 million that is a $6 million dollar difference per member for a 10 team conference. With a 14 team conference that would be $1.43 million vs. $8 million. One could argue that if teams leave the 13 team conference and are not replaced well that money foes up and the difference decreases, but you have to weigh what you get for staying out vs. moving on.

So right there is $8 million vs. $1.43 million or a gain of $6.57 million in just football playoff money. That covers the exit fees from the AAC for any member in just three years. If you look at NCAA tournament money, bowl money, conference tournament advertising, and other conference revenues being break even between and conferences being compared, MWC. AAC, PAC 12, now you are down to TV money. Can the PAC 12 do better than a $7 million dollar average over the next 12 years. Remember the AAC contract was extended for two years with the four new half share members.

The MWC is at $4 million on average now, but it is about to end. At the ending period because of scaling up it will probably be paying about $6 million to $6.5 million and if the MWC was to get a bump of $1 million per member, per year over that $6.5 million and it scaled at the same rate as their past contract is would be pretty much the same contract as the AAC.

Can the PAC 12 with new members get a contract that averages $3 to $5 to even $7 million more per year than the current AAC deal or an very improved MWC deal? Would CBS look to be a player on the PAC 12 and abandon the MWC if the MWC was losing 4 of their better members to the PAC 12?

Will TNT, The CW, CBS, NBC, or anyone else want to come in at $5 million per year per team for the top half of the games if Apple or Amazon come in at the same for the remainder of the content?

For a 10 team conference you would be looking at $50 million per year from a linear partner and $50 million per year from a streaming partner for a total of $100 million along with the $80 million in playoff money. that gets you to $18 million per year per team plus some other bowl and NCAA money to get a payout to $20 million per member per year. Only a fool in the MWC or AAC would be turning that down for 50% linear coverage and 50% streaming.

That is getting two partners an entire 10 team conference for about the cost of a single SEC or Big 10 member. That is 20% of what Apple was said to be offering the PAC 12 wit no incentives being met. That was said to be for 100% of the content though, but still that is a very small entry point for Apple or Amazon to see how college sports works for them. that alone might make it worth it to them. Even for the CW or TNT or similar that is a smaller entry point. Every $1 million more per team that could be negotiated between the two partners just makes it that much more of a no brainier to move. All the more so for MWC teams that would have the required waiting period to get an exit fee reduction and CBS sitting there deciding if they might want the PAC 12.

[NTXCoog]

It is an interesting conversation, especially financially. I imagine there are some meaningful reserves on acct. (Where do those go?)

Doesn't the PAC still owe Comcast $50 million from network licensing overbilling?

[FroggieFever]

Whatever remains of the Pac-12 has said its focus is on expansion, not collapse — not an unexpected stance — and everyone knows the last week has been insane. But someone named Jim Williams, who bills himself as a "media consultant and Emmy Award-winning TV producer and director posted a list of schools that already filed paperwork asking to join the (pre-implosion) Pac-12.

In addition to SMU, he listed Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Tulane, USF, Memphis, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulsa, Rice and New Mexico State.

How many of those schools remain interested is not known, or at least has not been made public. But if the Pac-12 stays afloat with Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford, and they're able to add some combination of those schools above — maybe SMU, Colorado State, San Diego State, Tulane, Memphis and Boise State — that would bring it back to an actual "Pac-10" and could represent a decent, if not elite, conference.

With the reduced TV money, maybe they would drop the eastern-most schools, Memphis and Tulane (hopefully not SMU) in favor of UNLV and Fresno State or something.

Yes, this is just showing an idea against the wall to see what sticks, and I have no idea if Williams has any credibility — maybe his post came after a few too many the night before. But if he has any actual insight, it's interesting to consider.

It is an interesting conversation, especially financially. I imagine there are some meaningful reserves on acct. (Where do those go?)

If I were the four remaining, I am sticking the $50mm-$60mm owed to Comcast on the bandits who left.

Further, a deal still needs to be struck for media rights and time is ticking to get that done before the 2024/2025 season. (Adding to that, who is going to front the buy outs?).

I think the pieces are there but question if Kliavkoff can put them together.

FF, Your point about who would "front the buy outs" is an interesting one. Only Apple (or maybe Amazon) could be the banker on this and commit the revised PAC-12 to a streaming service future. The revenue to the schools would certainly be much less that the reported $23+million presented by Kliavkoff, but perhaps north of what they are facing without it, e.g., merger with MWC which Stanford is likely to oppose. Not good options for Stanford and Cal, whose only other hope is a future invitation by the B1G10.

I tend to agree. I think that would be ideal.

Regardless, it sucks all around for Standford and Cal's Olympic sports (hopefully they can preserve an alliance with USC and UCLA).

[orguy]

Sure you are heartbroken. Loser. 63 - 7. What Stuart Smalley affirmations do you
have today? Enlighten us o' fffrrrog. Oh wise odiferous low sat score creep. Privy to
Stanford eh? Enlighten us Ho town wonderboy. Say hi to your mom. You guys make
a great couple!

[Water Pony]

FF, Ignore that post.

[SmooTen]

I'd say the remaining 4 move to the aac and turn it into a power conference. That or top from MW and AAC go to the PAC and it regains some of it's value back.

[rodrod5]

I'd say the remaining 4 move to the aac and turn it into a power conference. That or top from MW and AAC go to the PAC and it regains some of it's value back.

1. Four programs with the ability to move to another conference of 14 and make it a "power conference" have the ability to pick who they want to be associated with and it will not be all 14 members if any G5 conference.

2. I am not sure the 4 programs in question have the ability to elevate a 14 team G5 conference to a P5 conference. There might be 4 that do, but it is doubtful it is these 4.

3. No matter what these 4 are not going to just wholesale join into a 14 team G5 conference. They have the ability to choose schools from one or more G5s to associate with.

[SmooTen]

I'd say the remaining 4 move to the aac and turn it into a power conference. That or top from MW and AAC go to the PAC and it regains some of it's value back.

1. Four programs with the ability to move to another conference of 14 and make it a "power conference" have the ability to pick who they want to be associated with and it will not be all 14 members if any G5 conference.

2. I am not sure the 4 programs in question have the ability to elevate a 14 team G5 conference to a P5 conference. There might be 4 that do, but it is doubtful it is these 4.

3. No matter what these 4 are not going to just wholesale join into a 14 team G5 conference. They have the ability to choose schools from one or more G5s to associate with.

I don't see Stanford staying though. I think indy for them. Are the others truly in a position to pick people to join them right now? Especially after the display showed how volatile college football has become, in particular the PAC12? Everyone else is pretty stable except the ACC is seems.

But what do I know? I didn't think Colorado would actually go back and here we are


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rodrod5]

I think Stanford would like to go independent compared to the options currently available, but I think Stanford has learned their real value. And that value is not near what they thought. While there are small conferences for some of their sports like the MPSF the reality is they need some TV income from their football and basketball. I see very little that suggest they are remotely appealing for an independent contract like Notre Dame because Stanford is so elitist and so disconnected from most people. In addition it looks like their football is headed back to their historic level of being horrible and their basketball is nothing special at all.

I think Stanford would get football games easily at first especially with the smell of P5 still on them and most likely being a win for the opponent. Over time though I think it could become more difficult and they would become an after thought or just too weak to be on the schedule for the teams they would really want to play. They would move from USC and UCLA ect to home and home with UConn and UMass and some MWC teams.

Their Olympic sports that need a major conference would be the ones to suffer the most. It is one thing to be middle of the road in mens and womens BB, baseball, and the like in the PAC 12 where having a decent season gets you into the post season. Moving into the WCC or similar and being middle of the road gets you left out of anything and everything. No bowl games in football, difficult path to the football playoffs, no football playoff money or a small share. That is basically tossing in the towel and giving up.

I think the four PAC schools are in a position to pick teams simply because teams want the perception of moving up even if it is baby steps. There will also be the concern that not moving means that someone else will and they will benefit from it. The MWC and AAC are not going to pull teams from each other that just does not work or make sense and the money is not there. That is unless the PAC 12 just takes all but 3 or 4 teams from the MWC which I think is doubtful. There only needs to be a SMU, Tulane, or Rice or a CSU, Air Force, or SDSU to want to make the move and others from either conference are going to want in. And there will be some from each of those conferences that want to make that move. If that move is break even or better financially then it will happen. I think it will be better than break even financially and it will be pretty clearly better and it will happen.

[Insane_Pony_Posse]

I think the four PAC schools are in a position to pick teams simply because teams want the perception of moving up even if it is baby steps.

Does this have to happen very quickly, or could we still be talking what-if in December?

[ROCKNEPONY]

not sure about this source but if true it's interesting:

With Pac-12 losing P5 status, $420 million is at the disposal of the forgotten four to cover "additional costs and damages": Reports

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-foo ... es-reports