W2W4 - Louisville

[JasonB]

What a season it has been so far, and this weekend's game is going to be awesome. SMU has already shown that it can compete in the ACC and has a good team; this weekend is a competition to see which team, SMU or Louisville, is ready to compete for the ACC championship. The other teams at the top, Clemson and Miami, have already shown some warts this year. Are SMU and/or Louisville ready to challenge for the top?

It is important to recognize heading into the game that this is really a must-win for Louisville. They still have both Clemson and Miami on the schedule - they can't afford to lose any ACC games outside of those matchups if they have any hope of making the conference championship game. There is a ton of pressure on their shoulders, especially after losing the game last weekend to Notre Dame where they self-destructed at both the beginning and the end and gave the game away.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST LOUISVILLE

First, let's start with the stats, which are great for the Louisville run defense. They are a top 25 running defense in the country, giving up less than 100 yards per game. From an efficiency perspective, Louisville has had a top 20 defense in the country for each of the last three seasons, and their run efficiency has been awesome - two years ago 5th in the country, 10th last year, and 16th so far this season. They are 4th in the country in defensive success rate against the run.

Clearly, this is going to be a great matchup against an outstanding SMU rushing attack that features physical blocking and explosive runners.

Louisville plays a 4-2-5 and they are easily the most aggressive defense SMU has faced this season. They are very, very active pre-snap, so it becomes really difficult to understand how many players are in the box for the RPO. They almost ALWAYS blitz at least one LB, and they use this effectively in both run and pass defense. But aggressive is their nature. Against ND, they blitzed just about every play in order to help support the run defense and the ND QB was running for his life on most dropbacks.

Two things show up on tape, however. When they don't blitz, and play a standard two deep with LBs off the line, they can be run against. The DTs don't stand up the line well on their own. ND was able to get some chunk plays on the ground when Louisville backed off. They rely on their LBs to get into the backfield and make plays, and the slot corner does a great job supporting the run defense as well. The DTs aren't terrible, and they are deep and rotate, but whereas the SMU run defense is powered by the DL, for Louisville the great run D is really powered by their outstanding LBs Quinn and Clark, who play almost every down. You can run the ball against them, but you absolutely have to back those LBs off the LOS. The main target in the running game is the RDE, Logan number 19. He is really athletic and is going to give SMU problems in pass protection, but he isn't as physical and he can be run at. I would expect us to target him and run behind Byrd/Chamblee on our left side. That said, if the LBs are close to the LOS, they are really good and will be in the backfield. They are also athletic enough to keep up with Brashard.

The other thing that shows up in tape is that because of the aggressiveness, a mobile QB in the running game really impacts that game. The ND QB was able to run for quite a bit on them on designed running plays, and they will react to the handoff on the zone read which will allow Jennings to get yards with his legs. This is going to be a pretty important factor for SMU getting the running game going.

That said, I can't emphasize enough how aggressive the defense is. They played a lot of cover zero against ND - they were willing to blow some coverages or lose 1v1 and give up an occasional score in order to stop the run. LBs close to the line and the safeties tucked in as well, where the LBs normally are. And they absolutely swarm to the ball as a team. They are really fast. The defense is no joke.

SMU PASSING AGAINST LOUISVILLE

Again, I can't reiterate how much Lousiville blitzes and how much pressure they produce on the QB. They played a lot of cover zero against ND and leave the corners on an island. Against ND, they pressured Leonard on 16 of 23 pass attempts. That is a great ratio. They get a ton of pressure from the LBs. On the line, one DT Korga does a great job getting pressure up the middle. Their number 9 Gillotte plays like Roberts - he is physical and plays the run well, but he is also athletic and can beat the other team around the edge. Sometimes on third down he will shift inside like Roberts does. On the other side of the line, 19 Logan really pops on film with his quickness and athleticism. He is not great against the run but really dangerous in the passing game. That matchup of PJ against Gillottte is going to be a really great matchup to watch that probably breaks even. On the otherside, I think Byrd/Chamblee will have success in the running game, but I am really worried about the quickness of Logan rushing the passer. I would not be surprised to see us roll out Jennings to the right in order to get away from him and also get Jennings away from the blitzing LBs that tend to come straight up the middle.

I do think SMU can be effective in the passing game. Loiusville's success rate is only 76th in the country on dropbacks. The corners aren't bad, but they are all on an island. One thing that was really effective against FSU is that when SMU had Smith and Bailey on the left, they were able to run a little bit of a rub, the slot corner got caught, and Bailey was wide open down the seem for explosive plays. That is going to happen at least once in this game. RJ is also going to get isolated against either an LB or a S and can win that battle for big plays.

And that is the key to the game. If Jennings can hit a couple of big plays, it forces Louisville off the line and away from the cover 0/1, and then you can run on them. Otherwise, it is a long day at the office.

LOUISVILLE RUNNING AGAINST SMU

First, don't believe the hype that Louisville doesn't run the ball. They absolutely can. It is a mistake to compare them to the TCU offense because they throw the ball well - unlike TCU, their offensive success rate is actually higher on running plays than passing plays. They have a stable of good running backs and average 6.6 yards per carry. Isaac Brown is electric, he is their Brashard Smith. The OL is just kind of okay running the ball. They all do a solid job, but nobody is dominant. They hold their own and then they have really good running backs. This is going to be the first team SMU has played this year that throws the ball well, but also has a solid running attack.

I do think that SMU will be able to handle them at the LOS. Our DL is phenomenal against the run, and I think we will play well against their line. That said, if the RBs get free, I think our LBs will struggle with them. I would expect that we will stop their running game for the most part, but then will give up a few chunk plays during the game. This is the best group of running backs we have played against this season.

LOUISVILLE PASSING AGAINST SMU

Let's start with QB1. Shough is awesome. Great arm, makes a lot of Big Time Throws, buts touch on the ball. He is the complete package. He only has 1 INT on the season, and that was last week when a WR bobbled a ball straight to a ND corner. He doesn't run around, but he is mobile enough to slide around in the pocket, and he had a couple of throws last week were he changed arm angles and made great plays. He looks like a pro QB.

He also hits all areas of the field. Deadly across the middle, but a good enough arm and accuracy to throw the ball outside, and he loves the deep ball.

At WR, Brooks and Lacy are really good, and they get good production from TE as well.

So the passing attack is really, really good. One thing they struggled with against ND last week, however, was pass protection. And if you put Shough under pressure, he can struggle. When he is kept clean, he completes passes at a 75% clip and an NFL rating of 140 and gets the ball out in 2.67 seconds. When under pressure, 41%, 83 rating, and his TTT is 3.88. The rush bothers him and he holds onto the ball for a long time. They have one guard and their C that struggle in pass protection, so watch for pressure up the middle that forces him to slide to the outside.

This is where the chess game is. IF SMU can get pressure from the front 4 and drop the safeties back to help the corners, SMU has a chance to contain the passing game. However, if SMU has to bring safeties up to support the run, or tries to run some cover zero like we did last week, it is going to be a lot of trouble. Slough will be able to burn us over the top and will also hit free TEs if you blitz LBs.

The good news is that this isn't Hoover from TCU, who gets the ball out in 2 seconds. Shough holds it, so you don't necessarily have to blitz. You have some time to get to him with your front 4. JHH and Roberson need to be fantastic at the 3 tech position and Smith/Harvey/Roberts need to be awesome on the edge for SMU to be effective.

PREDICTION

Louisville is a really good football team. They gave the game away to ND on the road last weekend, IMHO. They have skilled players that stand out on both sides of the game. This is easily the best team we play this season.

I do think that SMU will have some success moving the ball. We have now shown the ability to win 1v1, Jennings was great in the passing game last week, and our redzone offense has improved substantially. If we can't connect in the passing game, it is going to be a long day and SMU will get blown out. But I think we will be able to do enough to back them off the line and allow us to run the ball a bit.

My concern is more on the other side of the ball. Our weakness is corner, they have a great QB and good WR. They also have really good RBs that our LBs might struggle to contain (perhaps I have too many flashbacks from the Nevada game). FSU dropped a lot of passes and missed some chunk plays last week, and I don't think that will happen against Louisville. I am afraid that we will give up more explosives.

I really want to pick SMU in this game. I can see our DL being very disruptive and exposing their OL, and I can see Jennings having some early success that opens up the running attack. In which case, SMU would actually win this game pretty comfortably.

But I can't do it. This is on the road against arguably a top 3 team in the ACC. As possible as the above is, it is more probable that we make some mistakes in our first road game in the ACC, fall behind early, and struggle to close the gap. Jennings hasn't ever played in an environment like this.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'll go Louisville 34, SMU 24.

[ShantyBoy]

No offense JasonB but I do love it when you pick against the Ponies.

[SmooBoy]

Your analysis ALWAYS gets me stoked for what to watch for with the individual battles. Thank you THANK YOU, JasonB!

[BUS]

Jason, love the post but Erin and I are hoping you are just a tad dyslexic.
See ya.

[Dukie]

No offense JasonB but I do love it when you pick against the Ponies.

Same! Lol

[highlander]

Your prediction is clearly correct because it's the exact same as mine from earlier this week in another thread.

[JasonB]

No offense JasonB but I do love it when you pick against the Ponies.

I hope I am wrong .

[BUS]

Party with some Woodford Reserve.

[indianmustang]

[BUS]

Like you said. We kind of stopped the birds from running, the qb took a lot of time to get rid of the ball. And our oline and rb,s ran.

Thank you and more fun to watch having your break downs.
Wow
Go Mustangs.

[ALEX LIFESON]

No offense JasonB but I do love it when you pick against the Ponies.