W2W4 - Stanford

[JasonB]

I'm going to start this off with a couple of bits of information, just to set some expectations. Yes, SMU is favored by something around 17 points, and is certainly expected to win. And Stanford has a 2-4 record has lost their last three games by pretty large margins against good football teams. But Stanford isn't bad. They have the 8th best Composite Team Talent in the ACC. They have a lot of good, solid players. They are just missing the elite, difference making players that change the game. They struggle to generate explosive plays on offense or take the ball away on defense, and eventually just wear down against good teams. But if you make mistakes, like Syracuse and TCU did, they are good enough to give you a fight.

It is also really important to keep in mind that the record of college football teams travelling 2 or more timezones this year is... not good. Kids struggle with the travel. You saw how we looked against Nevada. In the Big 10, teams are 3-10 when travelling 2+ time zones. Yes, some of that has to do with matchups, but it is still a factor, and especially coming off the bye week, don't be surprised to see it take a bit of time for SMU to come up to the speed of the game.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST STANFORD DEFENSE

Stanford runs a 4-2-5 and the run defense is the best part of the team. It was ranked as a top 20 unit in the country before the Notre Dame game, and then ND ran for over 200 against them. That said, for much of the game, ND really went pass first and Stanford was able to stop the run well. It was QB scrambles and then eventually Stanford just wore down after being on the field so long due to an ineffective offense. There defensive line is solid, they don't get blown off the ball, and the two linebackers, Sinclair and Bernadel, are good players. They will blitz at least 1 LB or a S on every play, which they use to both try to get pressure in the passing game and also play against the run. The big challenge they have is that they just don't create a lot of negative plays in the running game. So, it is 2 or 3 yards a carry every time until they wear down later in the game and give up explosive plays in the running game. The only weakness they have in the running game is their edge, number 23, who is their one elite athlete on defense but is really a pass rush specialist at this point. They try and limit him to pass-only downs, but if you can catch him on the field in the running game you can take advantage of the matchup. Don't be surprised to see us run a couple of times on third and long to take advantage of it.

So, this is theoretically strength on strength with the SMU running attack against the Stanford run defense. But that is what we saw with Louisville as well, where Louisville had an elite run defense. The difference is that Louisville would really sell out with the LBs to stop the run and you could take advantage of them once you got the LBs off the line, whereas Stanford just plays solid defense on the line and doesn't quite have to sell out as much. What was surprising about the Louisville game was the ability of SMU to get yardage straight up the middle even when Louisville knew we were running the ball. The SMU run game is now elite, with a top 25 rushing efficiency. I expect SMU to have patience with the running game, hammering inside and then bouncing outside off tackle on a straight run or with Jennings off the zone read to get more explosive results after the LBs have to dive inside to stop the run up the middle. I think it is hard to project SMU not having success running the ball against anyone at this point, just don't be surprised if it is a grind early and then things open up as the game goes along. One area here that I will be watching is to see if Byrd continues to outperform Chamblee at LT. Byrd has been great in the running game, and want to see if Chamblee has taken some additional steps forward after the bye to compete for the spot.

SMU PASSING AGAINST STANFORD DEFENSE

Again, Stanford is solid in secondary but lack elite players to really turn the game. Wright, 6, is a good corner. And 17, a reserve, had one of the greatest plays I have seen last week against ND when he pulled the ball out from an ND receiver post reception and came away with a great fumble recovery. But really there isn't a lot special there, and it shows up in the pass efficiency statistics. ND, for example, really came out and passed the ball a lot and then ran the ball later in the game after the game was out of reach and the defense was just done. In the pass rush, they will blitz quite a bit to help the secondary out. 11 at DE can make some plays in space and is a solid player. The elite guy they have in the pass rush is 23 Bailey. When he is at RDE against Byrd, that is going to be a really important matchup to watch - SMU needs to stay out of 3rd and long because he will cause a lot of problems if he is able to come in and pin his ears back.

The message here is that you just want Stanford off schedule defensively. If they know you are going to run and keep the LBs close to the line, they are going to slow you down. If you are behind the chains and have to pass, they can put you under pressure. But if you go after them in the passing game on first down, you will have success. And they don't have the athleticism to deal with the mobility of Jennings when plays extend.

STANFORD RUNNING AGAINST SMU'S DEFENSE

Again, this is strength on strength. The strength of SMU is our running defense and our great defensive line. And Stanford has a decent running game. The thing here is that the only elite offensive player Stanford has is the QB Daniels. Ford and Davis are good RBs, with Davis being the most explosive guy, but they don't scare you a ton. Daniels is the leading runner on the team. Holding it all back is that the O-Line just isn't very good.

What is kind of interesting about their running game is that the vast majority of their running attempts are off tackle. They hardly ever run the ball up the middle. Part of this is the lack of push at guard and center, so even the plays called up the middle end up bumped outside. Ford, Davis, and Daniels are all bouncing everything outside. The OL isn't that great, so the effectiveness of the running game is really all on the skill of the RBs and QB. The biggest keys on runs are going to be Roberts. Harvey, Smith, and Robertson on the outside, who I think have the opportunity to dominate at the point of attack and cause problems in the running game. I do expect SMU to be able to control the line in this game and defend the run well. ND defended the run really well and we are, after watching two ND games in prep, better than ND.

STANFORD PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

On the other had, this is the weakest part of each team against each other. SMU's pass defense has struggled, but made up for it with turnovers. That said, the Stanford passing offense is actually statistically worse than the SMU pass defense. They just don't have anyone who scares you on the outside. On top of that, the SMU pass defense numbers are a little bit exaggerated because of games against TCU and Louisville who both have elite QBs. This should be an opportunity for the corners to regain their confidence. Cisse and Ayomanor are the leading WR on the outside, and they will play with multiple TE or RB a lot and then mix it up by adding a slot WR. But the WR aren't going to scare you too much. This is where when Rhett says how important it is to be able to threaten all parts of the field, it is really important. Daniels will scramble one way or another, usually to the right, and his available windows to complete passes shrink considerably, whereas with Jennings, you still have to cover everything.

The OL for Stanford is a big problem in the passing game. They were abused by ND at times in that game, as they gave up 5 sacks and had a few holding calls, and they just don't have players who can make up for it when they get behind schedule. It kills their drives consistently. They make more and more mistakes as the game goes along.

Really, overall with the offense, you are going to see a solid running game mixed with a passing game that becomes kind of a scramble drill where Daniels can hit the short pass or make plays with his feet. He doesn't have a good deep ball, and their objective is to grind it out, eat clock, limit the amount of time their defense is on the field, and just limit the number of possessions to try and give the team a shot to win. The elite play SMU has been getting at DE, LB, and S is really going to come up big in this game.

PREDICTION

This kind of a weird game. You have the travel issue, but then with Stanford as a team, they don't have bad players, they just don't have many really good players. So it isn't so much about taking advantage of weaknesses as it is just grinding them down and playing a little conservatively with the ball because eventually you have elite players who will make plays and they don't, so you will win.

Whereas TCU and Louisville were bad matchups for SMU, I think we match up extremely well with Stanford. Their strength is running and that is the best part of our defense. The only thing that worries me is the mobile QB, which could allow them to grind some drives out.

I think SMU will start the game a little slow because of a combination of travel and coming off the bye. We commit some penalties to slow down the offense a bit and Stanford is able to grind some drives with scrambles, and the game is low scoring at the half. 17-7 type of game. Then, in the second half, SMU gets rolling and things fall apart for Stanford. I want to pick it closer because of the travel, but Jennings has just been incredible...

I know you are all going to kill me for this, but I have SMU 44, Stanford 13.

[leopold]

Hell, I like people picking us to win a whole heck of lot more than people picking us to lose.....

[ShantyBoy]

This is the week you get your stars back in realignment JasonB!