First team out in CFP rankings

[Charleston Pony]

I am afraid that if we win out but lose to Miami in the ACC championship game, we will be left out.

The chair of the committee was specifically asked that question and while not wanting to go on the record, he did say that if the game were competitive (not specifically us, but any of the teams that lost in the conf champ games, as that would give them one more game than the others) that would make a difference. Well see if that is true or not.

Go stangs, beat BC!

Only way the ACC might get 2 teams in is if BYU goes undefeated and SMU hands Miami their only loss in an ACC Championship game that comes down to a last minute one score win for SMU. Otherwise all of those "at large" spots will go to SEC and B1G teams

[leopold]

If SMU wins out in the regular season and loses to Miami in the CG we have a better than average shot to get into the playoffs. We'll be comfortably in the top 10 then and if we can keep it close to Miami we'll stay there.

Take a look at the schedules of the teams ahead of us - there are going to be multiple loses amongst those teams in the upcoming weeks. Right now, we all need to become Michigan, Vandy, Auburn, and Washington fans. Teams like Bama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Indiana, and possibly others are going to take losses, it's just to who. Outside of us winning our own games, we need

UGA to beat Ole Miss
BYU to win their conference, even if they aren't undefeated.
IU to take a couple of losses, which could definitely happen with them playing Michigan and Ohio State.

That, along with another upset or two, and we get in if we win out and play decently against the 'canes.

PONY UP

[b_caesar]

Got some CFP love from Josh Mancuso ... always good stuff!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY2XzTSYbJk

Skip to :45 if you just want the SMU context, but the whole thing is pretty good - well worth the 96 seconds.

[EP Pony Fan]

So we want Boise (hosting Nevada), Bama (at LSU), Indiana (hosting Michigan), Tennessee (hosting Mississippi State) and Notre Dame (hosting Florida State) to lose. It's OK if BYU keeps winning, because it reduces the negative of our loss to them.

[Dukie]

So we want Boise (hosting Nevada), Bama (at LSU), Indiana (hosting Michigan), Tennessee (hosting Mississippi State) and Notre Dame (hosting Florida State) to lose. It's OK if BYU keeps winning, because it reduces the negative of our loss to them.

I think that’s right. But a lot of it’s tricky. Eg, LSU win over Bama needs to be narrow/fluky so Bama still has three losses, but also #15 LSU doesn’t leapfrog us.

[highlander]

What happens if we beat BC next week?

Then let's do that.

[highlander]

I am afraid that if we win out but lose to Miami in the ACC championship game, we will be left out.

The chair of the committee was specifically asked that question and while not wanting to go on the record, he did say that if the game were competitive (not specifically us, but any of the teams that lost in the conf champ games, as that would give them one more game than the others) that would make a difference. Well see if that is true or not.

Go stangs, beat BC!

Only way the ACC might get 2 teams in is if BYU goes undefeated and SMU hands Miami their only loss in an ACC Championship game that comes down to a last minute one score win for SMU. Otherwise all of those "at large" spots will go to SEC and B1G teams

I can't imagine Miami not getting in even if they lose the CCG. They are going to keep winning, and keep blowing teams out. So they will finish the reg season in the top 4. Would one loss against a 11-1 team really keep them out of the playoffs? That would completely expose the B1G-SEC bias beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Hmmm... I think I just answered my own question.

[Dukie]

I can't imagine Miami not getting in even if they lose the CCG. They are going to keep winning, and keep blowing teams out. So they will finish the reg season in the top 4. Would one loss against a 11-1 team really keep them out of the playoffs? That would completely expose the B1G-SEC bias beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Hmmm... I think I just answered my own question.

Yep. The bias got completely exposed last year. They’ll absolutely do it again. The potential further destabilization of the ACC is just gravy as well.

[Charleston Pony]

I can't imagine Miami not getting in even if they lose the CCG. They are going to keep winning, and keep blowing teams out. So they will finish the reg season in the top 4. Would one loss against a 11-1 team really keep them out of the playoffs? That would completely expose the B1G-SEC bias beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Hmmm... I think I just answered my own question.

I agree that at least in theory Miami shouldn't drop dramatically in the CFP rankings but Miami's "best win" was arguably an early season blowout win (41-17) vs Florida, a team that sits at 2-3 in SEC play. Florida was more competitive in their losses to A&M, Georgia & Tennessee (losing by one or two scores) than they were vs Miami. It would really help Miami if Florida could win one of their remaining games against Texas, LSU or Ole Miss who all have winning records in the SEC. Instant credibility or at least it would make it really tough on the committee to shaft Miami

[soccermom]

Ga Tech is ahead of Miami in 3rd qtr.

[Dukie]

Ga Tech is ahead of Miami in 3rd qtr.

And at 0:00.

[Smumba2009]

Same situation in SEC and the narrative is its a deep league and everybody is good. Miami still controls their destiny.

[highlander]

I think we can safely remove "Two ACC Teams" from our scenario list.

[highlander]

I can't imagine Miami not getting in even if they lose the CCG. They are going to keep winning, and keep blowing teams out. So they will finish the reg season in the top 4. Would one loss against a 11-1 team really keep them out of the playoffs? That would completely expose the B1G-SEC bias beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Hmmm... I think I just answered my own question.

I agree that at least in theory Miami shouldn't drop dramatically in the CFP rankings but Miami's "best win" was arguably an early season blowout win (41-17) vs Florida, a team that sits at 2-3 in SEC play. Florida was more competitive in their losses to A&M, Georgia & Tennessee (losing by one or two scores) than they were vs Miami. It would really help Miami if Florida could win one of their remaining games against Texas, LSU or Ole Miss who all have winning records in the SEC. Instant credibility or at least it would make it really tough on the committee to shaft Miami

This discussion has been rendered academic.

[Charleston Pony]

Just have to hope some of SEC and B1G teams get upset by teams outside the rankings