The SMU case for the CFP

[HubbaHubba]

I suspect the loser of GA vs TN along with ut and nd, even if they lose (we should be ranked above both now), will still be ranked above us. There is no way the committee will put us in the playoffs unless we win out including the ACC championship game. If it were a 16 team playoff, then that is a whole 'nother matter; we would be ranked 17.

[Charleston Pony]

There are now 6 SEC teams with 2 losses and 4 B1G teams undefeated or with one loss. With 7 at large berths the odds of a 2 loss team from the ACC or Big XII are dwindling and realistically are probably "slim to none". SMU's invitation to the CFP runs through the ACC Championship Game

[Dukie]

It does not matter--it never mattered--to SMU's playoff prospects how other teams did, either in the ACC or P4 or all of FBS.

There is, and always was, only one path in, and that's winning the ACC championship.

I'm done worrying about which SEC teams will get in with three losses. The only results that matter for getting in the playoff are SMU's games. If the Ponies make it in, they are very well positioned to earn a top-four seed, but the only other games that matter a tiny bit are those of Boise, the eventual Big 12 champion (whoever that turns out to be), and Army (unless they lose to ND). Those are the teams that matter for SMU being the 3 or 4 seed, or down around 11 or 12.

[ShantyBoy]

It does not matter--it never mattered--to SMU's playoff prospects how other teams did, either in the ACC or P4 or all of FBS.

There is, and always was, only one path in, and that's winning the ACC championship.

I'm done worrying about which SEC teams will get in with three losses. The only results that matter for getting in the playoff are SMU's games. If the Ponies make it in, they are very well positioned to earn a top-four seed, but the only other games that matter a tiny bit are those of Boise, the eventual Big 12 champion (whoever that turns out to be), and Army (unless they lose to ND). Those are the teams that matter for SMU being the 3 or 4 seed, or down around 11 or 12.

^^^100%

[mustang1992]

There is no way the committee will put us in the playoffs unless we win out including the ACC championship game. If it were a 16 team playoff, then that is a whole 'nother matter; we would be ranked 17.

We will check in at #13 this week and won't crack top 12 at all, no matter if we win the next two. That guarantees that if we make it to the ACCCG and lose, the argument will be we were never a top 12 team regardless of losing in the ACCCG.

Beat UVA!

[EastStang]

Correct me Igbo get this wrong. Army beats, ND, Tulane and Navy. Gets ranked tenth. Boise stays at 11 or 12. Miami loses one before Championship. We beat them but don’t pass Army and Boise. BYU wins Big XII. If those 4 conference champions are ranked ahead of us, we stay home I think.

[Dukie]

Correct me Igbo get this wrong. Army beats, ND, Tulane and Navy. Gets ranked tenth. Boise stays at 11 or 12. Miami loses one before Championship. We beat them but don’t pass Army and Boise. BYU wins Big XII. If those 4 conference champions are ranked ahead of us, we stay home I think.

Correct. Top 5 conference champions do not have to include the P4.

[highlander]

Correct me Igbo get this wrong. Army beats, ND, Tulane and Navy. Gets ranked tenth. Boise stays at 11 or 12. Miami loses one before Championship. We beat them but don’t pass Army and Boise. BYU wins Big XII. If those 4 conference champions are ranked ahead of us, we stay home I think.

Correct. Top 5 conference champions do not have to include the P4.

Therefore we must win every game, regardless of what it takes to get to the CCG.

[CA Mustang]

Correct me Igbo get this wrong. Army beats, ND, Tulane and Navy. Gets ranked tenth. Boise stays at 11 or 12. Miami loses one before Championship. We beat them but don’t pass Army and Boise. BYU wins Big XII. If those 4 conference champions are ranked ahead of us, we stay home I think.

Correct. Top 5 conference champions do not have to include the P4.

Therefore we must win every game, regardless of what it takes to get to the CCG.

In that scenario, SMU would still make the CFP as ACC champion but not get a top 4 bye. As they wouldn't be seeded 5-8, they'll have to play a playoff game (on the road) either Dec. 20 or 21st.

[Dukie]

Correct. Top 5 conference champions do not have to include the P4.

Therefore we must win every game, regardless of what it takes to get to the CCG.

In that scenario, SMU would still make the CFP as ACC champion but not get a top 4 bye. As they wouldn't be seeded 5-8, they'll have to play a playoff game (on the road) either Dec. 20 or 21st.

Nope. Top four ranked conference champions are 1-4. The fifth-ranked conference champion is in but could be anywhere 5-12. The other 7 teams are the highest ranked teams not already in.

SMU would be the #6 conference champion in the scenario outlined; the 5 conference champions in would be from the B1G, Big 12, SEC, Mountain West, and American.

[CA Mustang]

Nope. Top four ranked conference champions are 1-4. The fifth-ranked conference champion is in but could be anywhere 5-12. The other 7 teams are the highest ranked teams not already in.

SMU would be the #6 conference champion in the scenario outlined; the 5 conference champions in would be from the B1G, Big 12, SEC, Mountain West, and American.

1. If Army beats ND, ND is out.
2. Even if Miami loses one game, they'll still be ranked higher than anyone Boise will face. Beating Miami will give SMU a bump. If Miami loses twice, SMU will face Clemson (also higher ranked than anyone Boise will face).

[Dukie]

Nope. Top four ranked conference champions are 1-4. The fifth-ranked conference champion is in but could be anywhere 5-12. The other 7 teams are the highest ranked teams not already in.

SMU would be the #6 conference champion in the scenario outlined; the 5 conference champions in would be from the B1G, Big 12, SEC, Mountain West, and American.

1. If Army beats ND, ND is out.
2. Even if Miami loses one game, they'll still be ranked higher than anyone Boise will face. Beating Miami will give SMU a bump. If Miami loses twice, SMU will face Clemson (also higher ranked than anyone Boise will face).

No one said it’s likely. But it’s absolutely possible, based perhaps on style points and “SMU doesn’t belong” bias. And ND is irrelevant to the conference-champion topic.

[CA Mustang]

Nope. Top four ranked conference champions are 1-4. The fifth-ranked conference champion is in but could be anywhere 5-12. The other 7 teams are the highest ranked teams not already in.

SMU would be the #6 conference champion in the scenario outlined; the 5 conference champions in would be from the B1G, Big 12, SEC, Mountain West, and American.

1. If Army beats ND, ND is out.
2. Even if Miami loses one game, they'll still be ranked higher than anyone Boise will face. Beating Miami will give SMU a bump. If Miami loses twice, SMU will face Clemson (also higher ranked than anyone Boise will face).

No one said it’s likely. But it’s absolutely possible, based perhaps on style points and “SMU doesn’t belong” bias. And ND is irrelevant to the conference-champion topic.

1. ND is presumed to have one of the seven at-large spots locked up so eliminating them creates a non-top 4 champion vs. a three loss team comparison.
2. Putting the ACC champion on the same level as the CUSA and MAC champions is indefensible.

[HubbaHubba]

1. If Army beats ND, ND is out.
2. Even if Miami loses one game, they'll still be ranked higher than anyone Boise will face. Beating Miami will give SMU a bump. If Miami loses twice, SMU will face Clemson (also higher ranked than anyone Boise will face).

If Army beats ND, Army jumps us and ND remains 1 spot ahead of us because, you know because.

[Dukie]

No one said it’s likely. But it’s absolutely possible, based perhaps on style points and “SMU doesn’t belong” bias. And ND is irrelevant to the conference-champion topic.

1. ND is presumed to have one of the seven at-large spots locked up so eliminating them creates a non-top 4 champion vs. a three loss team comparison.
2. Putting the ACC champion on the same level as the CUSA and MAC champions is indefensible.

Leaving FSU out last year was indefensible. I realize you’re arguing from a position of logic, but with the wrong sets of results an 11-1 SMU being left out is possible.