W2W4 - Cal

[JasonB]

Okay, this is it, folks. I'm changing my tune. IMHO, there is no way the committee is going to leave a team that ran the table in a P4 conference out of the CFP if they lose the conference championship game unless there is something crazy that happens. Like a 45 point loss and the QB gets hurt. So I'll come out and say it - win Cal and go undefeated in the ACC, and SMU is just about locked into the CFP.

Cal is a very weird team. They play teams close, but they blew the game against Miami, they found a way to lose to Florida State, they lost a close game at Pitt, lost to NC State by 1. They get destroyed by Syracuse before finding a way to comeback and beat Stanford to clinch a bowl. Kind of all over the place. We will get into it detail, but the weirdness comes down to having a strong group of skill position players on offense and defense, but really inconsistent production from the OL and DL. And that comes back to bite them in close games.

I watched the Miami, Syracuse, and Stanford games to prep for this.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST CAL DEFENSE

Cal plays in kind of a cross between a 4-2-5 and a 4-3. Most of the time, they will play a safety at that nickel slot, and sometimes they line them up like a 3rd linebacker; other times they will actually replace him with a third linebacker. One of the things that makes the defense good is that they throw a lot of different looks at you - they will blitz, they will stay back. They will run a lot of zone, play some mixed man/zone, and then suddenly go man to man (which really messed with the Miami QB).

I came into this hearing a lot about the Cal defense, and I made a lot of assumptions before I watched them on tape. One of which is that their run defense is pretty good. What stands out in the analytics, however, is that the run defense isn't as good as you think it is. And on tape that comes out. The defensive line has good size and is solid against the run - they don't get pushed around or anything like that. But they just don't make plays against the run. This is similar to the situation Pitt had where they have the linemen occupy blockers and rely on LBs and S to make the tackles.

They will start the game playing LBs off the line, and they were run on early in all of the games I watched. The DL engages, but as I mentioned, they don't beat blockers, they don't make plays, and so there are holes. It is kind of a bend-don't-break mentality. The LBs are good and will run to the ball and make plays, they just come after 4-7 yard gains. This is because they want their defense to settle into the speed of the game and not give up explosive plays early - their LBs are set to drop in a zone and defend the pass. As the game progresses, they will start to blitz LBs at different times to make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, and get the other team behind the chains a little bit. This allows their zone pass defense to become a lot more effective.

When you look at PFF, you will notice that their defensive players are really highly rated. This is because they do their jobs and are very good at it. The DL doesn't get blown off the ball against the run, they do their job occupying blockers. 47 is a good DT who might not be overly disruptive but is very consistent. The DT that stands out on tape a bit is 88, a Wisconsin transfer, but he rotates in. I'm not sure why PFF doesn't have him rated higher. They are similar to SMU in that they rotate these guys constantly so they are fresh and have a bigger and bigger impact as the game goes along. The LBs are good players. They don't get the hype of the Pitt, Louisville, or Duke groups, but it is a good group. 10 was the Pac12 defensive freshman of the year last year and is all over the place. He is their leading tackler and makes plays all over the middle of the field. As the game goes along they will run blitz him more and more, and he can create negative plays. The second linebacker 31 started the past couple of games, and PFF loves him. He shows up and makes some good plays, but 10 is the best LB they have. 00 started the season but was injured in the Wake game and I think is out for the season. That was a big loss, but 31 has filled in nicely.
They do have depth issues - 15 backs them up at LB and makes a lot of mistakes with bad angle reads. He is the guy to take advantage of when he is the game. Also, the Cal safeties are very good, and all of them show up making plays against the run. 2 is phenomenal. 4 and 20 (who will play a lot of slot for them) are great against the run.

Because their S group is good, I would expect this to be a pretty direct running attack. A lot of zone scheme early, while Cal is off the LOS, straight up the middle, off guard, and take the 5 yards. As the game goes along, there is going to be a ton of cat and mouse with SMU running RPO, and Cal alternating between showing blitz and sending LBs versus having them drop off all of a sudden to force Jennings into a pass decision while they drop in coverage. But SMU needs to establish the run early. Establishing the run gets Cal off balance.

I'm expecting to see a lot of McFall. Rhett knows how important this game is, so he is going to play Smith. But McFall will play in this game and play a pretty important role. The running game has really missed having Junior in the room because LJ is clearly playing through something and doesn't have the quickness hitting the line that he had in fall camp and earlier in the season. His productivity the last few games isn't where it should be. Somehow they have made it to this point while preserving McFall's redshirt, but now it is time for him to have an impact. I'd like to see him get 10+ carries in this game.

The last two games, SMU ran 30 times for 140 against BC and 35 for 111 against Virginia. That is a massive drop off in both productivity and attempts from earlier in the season - remember when we ran 50 times for over 200 against Duke? Sure, both of those teams loaded up against the run, but part of the reason is not having the bodies after Bailey got injured. We are going to want to run the ball 40+ times in this game. We have to force them to consistently run blitz so that we can hit them over the middle in the passing game.

SMU PASSING AGAINST CAL DEFENSE

This is the strength of Cal's defense. Both of their outside corners, 5 and 3, are absolutely outstanding. 3 leads the country in interceptions, and 5 makes play after play after play. Sure, they will give up some receptions from time to time, but for the most part, they are going to lock teams down.

Cal also does a great job with their schemes. They will man on the outside with zone in the middle, but really mix up that middle zone. They will switch to run full zone everywhere, which allows the safeties and corners to play back and really make plays on the ball. And then every once in a while they will go man across the board on you. They really messed with Cam Ward in that Miami game - he was really confused and it slowed down his decision making process. If you are late against the zone, they will pick you off.

The weakness is across the middle. The slot corner/3rd safety, whether it is 6, 20, or 22 can be beaten, and while the LBs drop into the zone and aren't slugs, they are still better against the run. 15, the backup LB, can really be taken advantage of in the passing game. Junior, Hibner, and the RBs out of the backfield will have opportunities in the game. The other guy who might have a big game is actually Adam Moore. He is now able to play, and against BC we actually saw him lineup in the slot quite a bit. This is important not only because he can spell Junior, but also his size across the middle in those zone pockets could be really critical.

Cal's defensive line is really solid, and their ends can rush the passer. They rotate out a lot and by the end of the game, they are more fresh than the OL and cause bigger problems as the game goes along. 44 in particular is a really good player. He isn't fast twitch, but more like a Roberts guy. He has 38 pressures and 7 sacks this year leading the team in both categories. 7 is their pass rush guy and is the quick twitch player that will give both of our tackles problems. If I am Cal, I am lining him up against Byrd and letting him go to work. That is something to really watch in this game. As I mentioned before, they will run blitz the LBs, and that has the result of getting LBs free on the QB or freeing up a DT to get some pressure. They have 219 pressures, which isn't quite up to the level of the SMU DL, but is a really good number.

This is where the mobility of Jennings comes into play. He is great against the blitz with his decision making, and also is able to buy enough time to make plays. One thing that is underrated for SMU is the great job the receiving corp does in finding gaps in zones and moving when Jennings is starting to shift the pocket. The Miami receivers did not do that as well, and it cost them early in the game. That is going to be a big factor. Also, when Jennings is able to get outside, the LBs will creep forward in the zone and the empty space behind them is going to stretch.

This game is going to be an example of how important it is when RL talks about being able to threaten every part of the field. Jennings arm strength is outstanding and allows him to make all of the throws. That is a really important piece when it comes to playing against these zone concepts.

Finally, it is going to be really important that Hudson plays. Not only has he become the alpha receiver on the team, but running tempo against Call can be really dangerous. If you can't sub out the WR, you can't run tempo. Moore and McFall will allow us to do it at other positions. Hudson will allow us to rotate WR and be able to run tempo. Tempo is critical against Cal because the depth at LB isn't great, and also their great corners on the outside play every single play. If you can run the play count up and either go against them at reduced speed or make them sub out, it is a big deal.

CAL RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

This is where things get interesting. The running backs for Cal are outstanding. Everyone had heard about 1, Ott, before the season. And the Calgorithm created a fantastic song about him. He is a really fast back. I actually like Brashard better - Ott doesn't have the physicality as part of his game. When he breaks in the open, he is gone. But he doesn't have strength inside and is tackled easily. He only has 43 yards after contact on the season! His backup is Thomas, 25, who is fantastic. Great running back, and has had a much better year than Ott who clearly isn't quite himself, averaging only 2.9 ypc.

The problem they have is with the OL. The OL just isn't that good. They don't open holes. This is where SMU should really dominate the point of attack in this game. The depth, size, and strength of the SMU DL is going to be a big problem for this group. I would anticipate a lot of negative runs, short gains. The backs are explosive, and they will get some chunk plays in this game. But it isn't sustainable and overall the running attack is really not efficient, which is a shame for the amount of talent they have in the backfield.

The QB, 15, also gets involved in the running game. Sometimes as a direct running call, but mostly in the scramble drill. He is kind of like the Pitt QB where he has size and he doesn't look very athletic at all, but he is able to make things happen in the running game and pick up some yards. But like against Eli, I think our DL and LB group are going to be too athletic for him to make a huge impact on the ground.

Just a note here, I expect Cal to have a couple of packages for Rogers, the UNT transfer. They have used him at the goal line at times, mostly as a running threat, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come in the game a few times during the game Saturday and throw a different look at SMU when their offense gets a little stagnant.

Because of the mismatch on the line, I expect SMU to control the running game pretty effectively outside of a couple of chunk plays by the good RBs.

CAL PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

Okay, so my scouting report on 15, Mendoza. He is a decent college QB. High completion perfentage. Runs around, but not athletic. He has a super long windup on his throws, which is odd to see in today's game. He needs it to get a full follow through to make his passes accurate and give him decent arm strength. When he is on the run, he doesn't have the fundamentals to maintain accuracy when he doesn't fully step into his throw, and his ball velocity drops significantly. He will make some outstanding throws, like the game winning TD against Stanford. But the pass blocking of the line is a disaster, and he REALLY struggles under pressure because of his fundamentals. He stares down his number one option and then he looks at the OL, ducks, and then scrambles outside the pocket because he has to, and then makes a throw or tries to run. He really wants to be a pocket QB, he just moves because his line is so bad. Honestly, he reminds me of watching Preston early in the season - stare down the top WR and then look at the line. PFF has him at 150 pressures and 40 sacks, which are huge numbers and a very high sack percentage. For reference, Jennings is at 92 and 11.

When he is kept clean, he can tear you up. PFF has him at a 74% completion rate, 1500 yards, 11 TD and 4 INT with a 105.3 NFL rating. The difference between him and Jennings is that Jennings has that 105 rating whether he is clean or under pressure. When 15 is under pressure, he is at 47%, 5 TD, 2 INT, and a 74 rating. And 40 sacks on top of it. It gets bad.

The WR group is skilled. They don't have the blow the top off the top guy, but they all have good size, good hands and run good routes. It is a good group overall that can pick you apart. 8 is the slot WR and they will do some jet sweep stuff with him at times. 6, 13, and 83 are all good receivers. The biggest threat in the passing game is the TE 87. He is a very, very good player and we have seen teams have success hitting the TE against SMU in the past, so this is a big thing to watch in the game. Passes going his way have completed over 90% of the time, which is a stunning number.

This is going to be the critical part of the game. Crossley has played better, and I think with his size and these guys not being burners it is a decent matchup for him. Deuce has played okay. But corner is certainly the weakness of the SMU defense, and this is the best group of receivers that SMU has faced in a long while. SMU is going to have to play the receivers tight in order to give the DL time to get to the QB. That is going to expose them on the outside. If Deuce plays off the WR like he did at the beginning of the BC game, he is going to get picked apart.

One thing to note - the Cal RBs are awful in pass protection. That is going to come into play when SMU does decide to blitz Walker and/or Wilson.

PREDICTION

I can see where this game is going to take some time to feel itself out. It is most likely going to be a sleepy game with a smaller crown than the team has become used to at home. When SMU is on offense, they are going to run against the bend-don't-break defense. Cal is going to force us to try and score TD in the redzone by limiting the explosive plays and forcing consistency. SMU's run game in the redzone has become a little bit of a concern because the last couple of weeks we haven't gotten that push from the OL, Smith is running a little tentatively against contact, and LJ isn't himself. But I think McFall might be the answer here and give us the speed hitting the line that we need to open the game up. If SMU start scoring TDs, that is when Cal will start run blitzing and that is going to open up the passing game to Jennings over the middle where Hibner and Junior can have big games.

When SMU is on defense, I expect Cal to come out and attack the corners and throw the ball. They already clenched a bowl, they don't really have anything to lose, so I suspect they will play pretty aggressively. Symons will play things pretty generically in the building to get a feel of how Cal is playing and then switch things up and blitz if we need it.

Don't sleep on this game. The Cal secondary is really good. And the strength of their offense plays against the SMU weakness. Cal can make some plays against the SMU secondary. They can confuse Jennings with scheme. They can force SMU to settle for field goals with bend don't break. And they have playmakers in the secondary that can generate turnovers. But even in that case, the SMU DL will eventually win and allow SMU to pull away.

All of that said, I think the infusion of Moore and McFall is really important. I think that will bring life back into the SMU offense, and as long as we get Hudson, SMU will be able to speed up the tempo from last week. And I think the DL comes out from last week smelling blood in the water and wanting to close this season out on a high. SMU comes out with a level of intensity to send the seniors out as winners and we get a replay of the Pitt game with SMU getting up early and winning SMU 41, Cal 16. SMU runs the table in the ACC and just about clinches a spot in the CFP.

[Terry Webster]

I that is pretty accurate prediction on the score. I can't see Cal putting up any more points than that against our defense.

[highlander]

From your keyboard to God's eyes.

[ponyswim]

Thanks Jason. I like 41-16.

[JasonB]

Some final notes:

- Hudson is going to play, which is huge because it means we can go tempo. I expect us to go at higher temp than we have in the last few games.
- The opportunity is there for a statement game, but it will take patience. Offensively, take the easy runs early, force them to adjust, then hit the passes. If we take what is there, we will score points. If we are overaggressive early, they can pick us off. Defensively, we should be able to handle them on the line with our front 4. Miami was over aggressive against Cal, and it allowed the Cal playmakers to get the ball in space. Gradually dominate the game via the DL, don't get over aggressive.

If we play a patient game, we can really make a statement with this win. Everyone remembers Cal playing Miami close. If we play patient and pull out a 25 point win, we can leapfrog Miami in the polls.

[Charleston Pony]

McFall with an early impact. He, Brashard & Jr give us a lot of speed options for any defense to deal with

[BUS]

Also, super fun to have Preston come in and be Preston. T D over the top.fyi, he walked with the seniors.