W2W4 - Clemson

[JasonB]

Here we go! ACC Championship in year 1. It has been an amazing season, well beyond expectations. Anything from this point forward is certainly a bonus considering we weren't supposed to be here heading into the year. But we all want to win on Saturday, and we all want to experience the CFP.

I know there has been a lot of consternation about the CFP because of the placement of SMU compared to Alabama. And I get it, I am ticked about the rankings as well. The SEC just isn't that great this year. Miami should still have that spot in the polls. Clemson absolutely should have beaten South Carolina last weekend. They were the better team the majority of the game. And Georgia Tech was better than Georgia for most of that game as well. The SEC should not have 4 teams in the CFP this season.

That said, we are in unless we get absolutely blown out by Clemson. And the good news is that we are a better team than Clemson. Period. Anything can happen in these games with the cold weather, penalties, and turnovers. But we ARE the better team. If bad stuff happens and we get throttled and lose out on the CFP, honestly, that is on us for not playing up to expectations. We are favored for a reason, should probably be favored by more than we are, and should win this game.

To prep for this review, I watched the Georgia, Virginia, Louisville, and South Carolina games. I think I have a pretty good handle on who they are. Everyone talks about the SMU schedule. I'm not sure why nobody talks about Clemson's. Because they got obliterated by Louisville, should have lost to Pitt against their backup QB, and IMHO, they would lose against Syracuse, Miami, and Boston College as well. Boston College post-QB change, again in my opinion, is the second best team in the ACC right now. We are on top for a reason.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST CLEMSON DEFENSE

Clemson has finished the last several years in the top 10 in the country on defense. The problem has always been on the offensive side of the ball. This year, they slipped to 18 in defensive efficiency, behind SMU. The reason why is their performance against the run and the fact that they allow more explosives. Let's talk about why.

First of all, they really miss number 19, who started the year at DT. He came back for a few plays of the South Carolina game, but I don't think he will see a ton of time against SMU. They miss him. Their tackles in the middle are just kind of okay. 55 gets pressure inside, but he can abandon his gaps and both Georgia and South Carolina pushed him around. At the other tackle, 8 and 15 have both started instead of 19, and then 90 plays at the tackle spots. They all have decent size, but can be run against. The defensive tackles themselves don't make a ton of plays in the running game. The two interesting players on the line are 11 and 3. 3 is a STUD player. really good at DE against both the run and the pass and has a very high motor. Love him. 11 is interesting. He is a bigger guy that they played on the edge most of the year even though he looks more like a tackle and he is a good player. Against South Carolina and their run-first attack, they moved him inside at tackle, where I thought he was great. The challenge they have is that they need help in the middle, but once you take 11 inside, then they start 44 on the edge, and he just isn't very dynamic. I suspect that we will see 11 inside against SMU to try and disrupt up the middle of the field, and he isn't athletic enough to contain Jennings around the edge.

At LB, it is number 0 and 17. 0 is the guy that people say is a highly rated NFL player. Honestly, I think he is a good player, with really nice size, but athletically he struggles when players are in space against him. 17 is long and they use him to blitz and pressure the QB a lot. But again, he struggles with athletes in space. I would take all three of our LBs over their starters. One challenge that they have is that they really need to help the line in the running game, so the LBs play super close to the line of scrimmage. Not only does it hurt them in pass coverage, but the LBs tend to get caught in the wrong spots and caught up in the scrum of the line and that is where teams break explosive runs against them. It is very similar to Louisville and Pitt where they feel like they have to blitz a bit to stop the run and play those LBs close. SMU absolutely punishes that this season, in both the passing game and in the running game. They will blitz and create some tackles behind the line of scrimmage. And you might not win every down and mush them down the field. But SMU is going to break off some explosives from Smith and McFall in this game.

They threw in a little wrinkle against South Carolina and played more of a 4-3 instead of the 4-2-5 they typically play. I can't imagine they will try that against us, they will get killed in the passing game, but we will see.

We have struggled a little bit the last couple of games to establish the run. But in this game, I expect SMU to really try and spread things out, throw the ball, and then use that to open up the running game where we generate explosive plays. I think we will see us do what we did against Louisville and Pitt.

Clemson can also be hurt running side to side. The whole defense is kind of a tweener - they aren't big, but aren't small. They aren't slow, but they aren't fast. They are pretty big and kind of athletic. Watch the jet sweeps in this game, especially when the game gets spread out, because I don't think their LBs can make plays in space against Junior.

Another injury here that bears watching is number 9 , their starting strong safety. I don't think they have a ton of depth at safety, and that dude is a stud. He is fast and hits hard and protects them in the running game, but is also good in coverage. He hurt himself on the last defensive play of the South Carolina game and he might be out. That is a big loss for Clemson if he can't go, because he is one of the few players on the team that can close down space and still make plays.

You will hear a lot from Clemson fans online about tackling issues. It isn't tackling issues. The problem is that their guys are just a little late to make plays because they aren't quite athletic enough. So they are reaching and stretching to make arm tackles as a result, and don't make the play.

SMU PASSING AGAINST CLEMSON DEFENSE

3 can rush the QB really well, and if 11 is at DT he can pressure up the middle. But they get fewer pressures overall than their reputation would have you believe. In the secondary, 10 and 20 are at outside corner and are both good. 20 is a stud. Both are physical players. These aren't the elite corners that Cal has, but they are in the right spots and don't get beat deep. They don't make a ton of plays, but they certainly prevent plays from being made. 7 plays their hybrid nickel corner /third safety position and is super athletic. His challenge is that he gets lost in coverage at times and gives up big plays on blown coverages. As I mentioned 9 is a great player at safety. 18 is just kind of okay at the other safety. He doesn't show up a ton on film. Their weakness here is that the LBs get caught up in the LOS, and 9 is either up close supporting the run or dropping really deep in a zone in the middle. So even though the outside corners are good, there is just a ton of space in the middle of the field for the slot WR, a TE, a RB leaking out of the back, or a WR on a crossing route.

Even though 3 is a really good DE, they don't have that quick twitch smaller edge player that really hurts our tackles in pass protection. This game is going to be all about SMU attempting to get the ball to playmakers in space on the field. When the LBs are up, we are going to RPO to a pass and hit Smith and Junior in space. And because they play so much man, Jennings is going to have a ton of room to scramble when he wants to. When the LBs are back, we are going to run the ball at them and get explosives in from Smith and McFall. I just think this defense is going to play out like Louisville did, and we performed quite well in that game.

CLEMSON RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

The Clemson offense has really improved this season. They have always had a good defense, but last year the offense took a huge step back. The run offense is okay, but the improvement is all driven from explosive plays in the passing game, which we will get to in a minute.

In the running game, the OL is solid, but not great. They like to do a lot of Gap, like Boston college, and have the athleticism to pull it off. The difference is that they don't have the huge, strong OL like BC does. The Gap works because they can get numbers on a particular side, but they don't blow teams off the ball.

7 is their runnng back and is a good player. He isn't super explosive, but he is big and strong and when they run him up the middle he will turn a 2 or 3 yard gain into 5 and 6 yards with his strength. He looks like an NFL guy, but just doesn't have the elite explosiveness. They run him up the middle and then off the left tackle pretty successfully - that is really their chunk play in the running game. Against lesser teams, they pile up yards, but they struggle to establish a great running game against the better teams. And the OC Riley doesn't really stick with the run. He does it to balance the game out. I'm not impressed with his offense that much. Same complaints we had when he was here.

What they have done more of as the season has gone along is get Cade (2) the QB involved in the running game. At first it was all scramble with the occasional zone read. But against better teams, they will run a straight QB draw quite a bit. They will call several QB runs over the course of the game in order to make the DL stay in their rushing lanes and make the LBs stay home. 2 won't hit you for explosives, but he will make it a little miserable with 7 yard runs. He is effective enough as a runner and scrambler that it will force SMU to play a lot of zone in the middle of the field.

Outside of forcing SMU to play zone, I think SMU is going to control the running game pretty well. And while Riley doesn't tend to stick with the running game, their offense and team are really uncomfortable with a drop back and throw it every down approach. There are times where I think Clemson would be better off just grinding the ball and letting 7 wear the other team out. But they don't have a ton of depth at RB, and partially because of it they just aren't a grind it out team.

I think SMU wins this matchup.

CLEMSON PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

This is going to be probably the most interesting matchup of the game. Clemson is going to have to be effective in the passing game to score on SMU.

The QB, Klubnik (2) is highly rated by PFF. At times, you see why, where he gets on a roll and delivers that ball accurately, on-time and moves the team down the field. He has nice athleticism which allows him to move around and create time, even when he doesn't scramble, behind an OL that can struggle at times in pass blocking. Solid arm strength. My issue is that he is a system QB. I don't see him looking down the field and making great throws and great reads. I see him waiting for space to clear out and then hitting people who are open underneath. Against teams with good DL, like Georgia, he got happy feet and really struggled. Against South Carolina, they had prescribed throws to get the ball out of his hands quick so that the DEs couldn't get their hands on him. And then quite a bit, his throws are just a little off and he doesn't get the easy completion. The ball will sail high out of nowhere. Or the INT at the end of the game last week is a great example - he is rolling right, the RB is going right... if he puts the ball in front of the RB, it is a nice pickup. Instead it is just behind him, the RB reaches back and tips it and it goes to the DB for a pick. It is kind of like watching Gilbert play, where he is a system guy who can do things well and complete passes, but he just isn't at that elite level.

The WR group is really nice. 1 and 12 on the outside are freshmen and have good size, good hands, are athletic. They aren't going to make you miss in space, but they are threats on the outside down the field. They don't blow you away with speed, but they do make plays. Riley went after South Carolina early in the game with the deep balls down the line, and I expect the same against SMU to test the corner room. Klubnik has a good enough arm to get the ball there before safeties can come over and help. 0 is the slot WR and is the more dynamic guy. Their leading receiver. He can make plays with YAC as well.

They don't really screen the ball effectively. The TE, 9, isn't great but he is very involved in the passing game.

What they will basically do is run the outside guys deep. They will either throw the ball deep early in the play, or they will let the space open on the field and then hit 9 or 0 underneath everything. They will get in this routine of short yardage passing plays over the course of the game, but it really doesn't translate to a lot of points against the better defenses that they play. And SMU is one of those better defenses. When 2 is in a rhythm, he completes those passes and they move down the field. When he isn't the pass is a little off, and the incompletions really are disruptive because they struggle to generate explosive plays. The big increase in explosives in the passing game that I mentioned previously is from throwing the ball deep down the line.

Preventing those explosives is a big thing in this game. Deuce and Crossley have been better than expected in that regard, and some mixed in cover 3 helps, but also we haven't played a ton of QBs that can take advantage of them. Klubnik can, and it will cost SMU at some points in the game.

The question is whether he will have time to throw the ball deep. They struggle with pass blocking, and a lot of it is straight up the middle with the C and the RG. JHH and Roberson have an opportunity to be very disruptive in this game.

PREDICTION

Again, I think SMU is the better team here. Don't get me wrong, Clemson has some good players all over the field. They are a solid team. But SMU is going to win this game on the DL. And SMU has more explosive players that hurt you in space than Clemson does.

As a result, I think SMU is going to bring home the ACC Championship in another statement game.

SMU 31 - Clemson 14.

[highlander]

You really need to start a YouTube channel. I have watched more YT shows this week about this game than I have watched anything over the last year. With only a couple of exceptions, the presenters are just NPCs spouting the same old drivel. "Clemson has won 8 of the last 10 ACCCGs". "Clemson has more talent." SMU had a weak schedule." "SMU is a G5 school". "SMUs best win is against an 8-4 Louisville team". They definitely have not watched SMU play, and they clearly don't do anything in the way of show prep.

[TigerTown]

Interesting takes....

[highlander]

Interesting takes....

In case you are wondering, he does not always predict a Mustang win. He has been wrong 3 times this year: he predicted we would lose to TCU and Louisville, and he predicted we would beat BYU (as did everyone else). He has the most thorough and honest analysis I have found anywhere.

[TigerTown]

Interesting takes....

In case you are wondering, he does not always predict a Mustang win. He has been wrong 3 times this year: he predicted we would lose to TCU and Louisville, and he predicted we would beat BYU (as did everyone else). He has the most thorough and honest analysis I have found anywhere.

Oh I'm here for it! I learned more in your team with this write up than anywhere else.

Y'all are favored so get it for sure! Some of the analysis about Clemson??? But hey, love fandom (why else would we care!?)

[Dukie]

Some of the analysis about Clemson??? But hey, love fandom (why else would we care!?)

OK—which of the analysis about Klempson is “???”?

[Charleston Pony]

Clemson fans have been told their OL is NFL caliber and JasonB doesn't necessarily agree after watching film on them. We know this game comes down to our DL vs their OL. Both teams' fans think they have the advantage so we will see how it all plays out.

[TigerTown]

Some of the analysis about Clemson??? But hey, love fandom (why else would we care!?)

OK—which of the analysis about Klempson is “???”?

A few things, but hey, enjoyed the write up learning about your team!
11 will be a first round pick next year (moved out early in year due to injuries there
10 isn't even playing much the last month with 23 taking over
0 is arguably the most athletic LB in the country

Most Clemson fans are most worried that your coordinators will coach circles around ours.

Great example from writeup ..0 is athletic, but you can't leave anyone on an island as he often was in our schemes. He made some plays (is a butkus finalist after all.)

Y'all are favored for a reason.

[TigerTown]

Clemson fans have been told their OL is NFL caliber and JasonB doesn't necessarily agree after watching fil on them. We know this game comes down to our DL vs their OL. Both teams' fans think they have the advantage so we will see how it all plays out.

I haven't seen anything close to that hyperbole.

They are light years better this year than we have been the past few however, that's for sure.

Game day!

[Arkpony]

Ponies will win this one-easily!

[highlander]

Ponies will win this one-easily!

Funny thing: Clemson fans are saying the opposite! But I do find their reasoning to be a lot less detailed (and a lot less convincing) than JasonB's. They tend to gloss over, if not ignore entirely, the bad parts of their season (Georgia, Louisville, Pitt). They tend to focus more on the shortcomings of SMUs schedule, while forgetting that SMUs conference schedule was actually more difficult than theirs, and they didn't do as well.

Their complete schedule was tougher than SMUs, but that matters a lot more when you actually BEAT those tougher opponents. Just as an example, Miss State is #1 in strength of schedule. Only ONE (or possibly two) of the top 25 SOS holders will be in the playoffs -- Georgia at #3.

[tristatecoog]

Clemson gets a lot of penetration when rushing four and they look great. However, USC QB (quite good) was able to escape the rush more times than not.

#0 looks terrific and Klubnik throws a nice ball.

[JasonB]

Some of the analysis about Clemson??? But hey, love fandom (why else would we care!?)

OK—which of the analysis about Klempson is “???”?

A few things, but hey, enjoyed the write up learning about your team!
11 will be a first round pick next year (moved out early in year due to injuries there
10 isn't even playing much the last month with 23 taking over
0 is arguably the most athletic LB in the country

Most Clemson fans are most worried that your coordinators will coach circles around ours.

Great example from writeup ..0 is athletic, but you can't leave anyone on an island as he often was in our schemes. He made some plays (is a butkus finalist after all.)

Y'all are favored for a reason.

11 has been playing at end almost all year. Didn't know that he was playing out there because of injuries on the edge, but yes, he looked great at tackle last week, which I pointed out.I wasn't impressed with 44 last week out on the edge.

I noticed that 23 started at corner in the South Carolina game, but 10 started Pitt and all the games before that. I didn't watch Citadel. 10 still played, they pretty much split snaps. It doesn't matter really that much - 23 is good, like you said, and outside corner really isn't a problem for you guys.

0 reminds me of Jaylon Smith a little bit, the former Cowboys LB. He is athletic, sure, but he also gets over-aggressive and gets caught up in the line, which leaves gaps... it is part of the problem in defending the running game for you guys. He also misses 1 v 1 in space like Jaylon did, despite the athleticism, but as you pointed out, often that is when there is no other defender within 7 yards of him in the open field. Just my observations though, and some of those misses were way back in the Georgia game, so those might just be fresh on my mind because I watched all that tape this week .

[JasonB]

Clemson gets a lot of penetration when rushing four and they look great. However, USC QB (quite good) was able to escape the rush more times than not.

#0 looks terrific and Klubnik throws a nice ball.

Clemson had 80 less pressures this year than the SMU defensive line. Their D line isn't bad, they are physical. But the SMU DL is better. And the two LBs are third and fourth on the team in pressures. While they do get push on the pass rush, they don't generate a lot of sacks, and they really have to blitz 0 and 17 in order to generate more pressure.

11 was really good inside as a tackle last week. It is going to be interesting to see if he causes a lot of problems, but also if he can maintain some lane discipline. Last week, he caused many of the gaps that the USC QB ran through. They will be able to fix some of that with tape this past week, so we will see how effectively they can repair it.

It will change some things for them. If he forces a double team with a guard and Clark up the middle, then you have the other guard 1v1 against 55, and a blitzing 17 or 0 up the middle could be a free runner. That pressure up the middle will give Jennings some problems obviously.

[leopold]

Wonderful as always, JasonB.

One thing I haven't heard anyone talk about is special teams and just looking at the stats we seem to have an advantage there, too. Our PK is an absolute weapon (but seems to get a little hit-and-miss the closer he gets), or punting average has been better, and our return game has been a consistent threat to score all year long. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we got a TD on a return.

If we outperform them on special teams I see us having a large advantage across the board.