W2W4 Penn State

[JasonB]

Unfortunately, I some conflicts have hit me and I'm not able to make the trip up for the game (I have tickets if anyone needs one)... but knowing that so many are travelling Friday morning, I thought I would get this out a day earlier than usual so that everyone has a chance to read it before the big trip!

First, let me say thank you to the ACC for making all the games available online. Trying to find Penn State tape was surprisingly difficult. I was able to watch the West Virginia, Illinois, and Ohio State games in full. But I really wanted to rewatch the Oregon and USC games and wasn't able to.

Defensively, Penn State plays a 4-2-5 for the most part. As the season went on, they showed more 4-3-3 and played number 0 as a third LB. I thought that it was because they were playing some more physical teams in the big 10 and expected them to go back to the 4-2-5 against Oregon, but they stuck with the 4-3-3 as a starting group (0 actually out snapped the slot corner 7 49-30). Really surprising to me, because 7 has really come on as the season went along and I really like him as a player.

On offense, they are a really physical team. They will go with two TE about half the plays and then switch to a 3 WR set for the other half.

SMU RUNNING AGAINST PENN STATE DEFENSE

Unlike SMU, which switches our DE based on which side of field the ball is on, Penn State plays it pretty straight. 11 at DRE, 33 at DLE, and then 28 and 91 inside. Both of the tackles inside are very good against the run. 28 is like Elijah Chatman - a little small, but has a really nice frame, is physical and can win with quickness. Just like Elijah, he stands up to the run better than you think he will with the frame, and then every so often will use his quickness to make a great play in the background to cause a loss. I expect that running up the middle is going to be really difficult for SMU to do in this game. Clarke and one of the guards will double whomever we are trying to move while the other guard creates a seal on the other side, but even if they nail those blocks, 41 is gonna come in and make the play. 41, King, is awesome, he is an NFL guy at LB, and follows in a long line of great Penn State LBs. The run up the middle is an important part of the SMU offense, and we have to run it to keep Penn State from cheating. But it will really suprise me if we have sustained success there.

To the outside, on our left we will talk more about Byrd versus 11 (Carter) later, but Carter is an NFL 1st rounder for a reason, and he handles the run almost as well as he rushes the passer. We have to run it at him to keep him honest, but it isn't going to do a lot for us. The area to focus on is running to the right. 33 is ok against the run, but PJ should win that matchup. The LB on that side, 13, is a weak spot on their defense, and will miss tackles. This may be a little of why they have played more 4-3 with 0 helping on that side. The explosive plays against Penn State have come from running to the right, and that is a weakness SMU is going to have to exploit if they are going to establish the run against Penn State.

The other thing to watch is that Penn State can get caught with the LBs too close to the line and give up some chunk plays when you get outside on them. Brashard getting an extra week of rest hopefully is back up to full speed, because he can take advantage of this.

Another thing to watch is that when 15 is in the game at DE, we will run the ball right at him. He really struggles against the run and on tape he just gets off balanced a lot and has a long, lean frame. Watch for us to target him on the RPO when he is in the game.

Strategically, there are two things I want to mention. First, Penn State isn't super deep. They don't rotate a ton. If SMU can establish pace at all, it is going to be a big deal. SMU has slowed things down a bit the last few weeks because of injuries. But if Mello is back at WR, and LJ is a little more healthy at RB and Brashard is up for it, I would like to see SMU pick up the pace because Penn State can really slow down defensively as the game goes along.

The second strategic piece is to see if SMU can force Penn State to make adjustments. If we can run the ball effectively to the right and force Penn State to play a 4-3, Junior is going to eat that matchup in the slot alive all day long. Again, it is an RPO thing - if they have 7 in the game on early downs, you run right, force them to put in 0 to stop the bleeding, and then you throw the ball. If they stay in the 4-2-5, you want to force 1, who is a very good safety, to come forward and try to make plays, and then maybe you can take advantage of something behind him.

SMU PASSING AGAINST PENN STATE DEFENSE

They are going to play the corners pretty static. 4 is a stud. Transfer for Georgia, he is clearly going to be an NFL guy. He will play on their left side, which means he is going to match up against Mello and Hudson and if you can get anything out of them in this game, it is a bonus.

3 is their weaker corner and will match up against Moochie and Smith, and that is the matchup we are going to want to go after. He isn't bad, don't get me wrong. He just isn't 4.

As I mentioned earlier, if they have their 4-3, then Junior is going to get a LB in coverage and can try and take advantage of the matchup. If they are in the 4-2, 7 (Tracy) is someone who has really developed into a good slot corner this season. He is quick and very athletic and I think he is probably going to match up better against Junior than anyone else we have played this season.

We are going to have to try and get Hibner also matched up against 13 and take advantage of that as well.

Both of their safeties are good. Better at helping with the run than in coverage, but they are both good players. I'm surprised to see 1, Reed, rated as the lower of the two on PFF - he is really impressive to me. Ahmad Moses type player who is really aggressive and lightning fast coming forward to help against the run. That said, 1 really struggled against Oregon, so maybe that is something that we can continue.

When Jennings does drop back to pass, pass protection is going to be a big deal. I think we can handle them up the middle okay, although the quickness of 28 is going to give Osborne problems from time to time. There will be at least one play he gets beat quickly on. PJ will handle the right side just fine, as long as he is recovered from the early injury against Clemson. The big issue is going to be their 11 against Byrd. I know that he wears 11 and is at Penn State, so the comparison is lazy, but he is Micah. He will line up off the line, on the line, sometimes he might circle to the middle pre-snap. If he reads the play as a pass from the start, you are toast - his explosiveness off the snap is absolutely incredible. He is the type of player that Byrd really struggles against. It is going to be a real problem. They are going to have to roll Jennings out right at times when the pocket just isn't holding up, and now you are on the side of the field that 4 has on lock down. This is exactly what got us in trouble against Duke, because Jennings got impatient and forced passes back across the middle that got intercepted, or fought for yardage on the scramble and fumbled.

This is why being able to establish the run is so important. If SMU is in long yardage situations where 11 can pin his ears back and rush, it is going to cause problems. You can't take advantage of the Moochie/Smith matchup if you are running to the other side of the field every play.

As a result, I think you are going to see a lot of quick passes. Quick slants, WR and TE screen, and the jet sweep. Don't be surprised and/or frustrated if that is a big part of the game on Saturday, and recognize it is because of the matchup with 11.

When you compare the Penn State defense with the Clemson defense, they have great size like Clemson did. But 11, 41, and 4 are elite defensive players that Clemson doesn't have.

PENN STATE RUNNING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

Penn State has two good running backs. 10 is excellent and looks like an NFL player. He has decent size, but is also explosive. A little bigger than Brashard, but not quite as quick. 13 is their bigger back who pounds away. They both ran for about 800 yards, but 10 had a much better ypc.

The quarterback, Allar, is also effective in the running game. he is a big QB, more elusive than you think he is, and he will get some yards on you if you don't account for him in the zone read. He isn't going to get huge chunk plays, but he is effective enough on the zone read that you have to play him. Losing 9 as the backup QB is a big deal - he was really great in the running game. it will be missed.

The other thing to watch for is the TE, 44 in the running game. He will lineup in wildcat and is big and athletic and a real threat when he does it. Especially near the goal line.

Penn State is a physical team and they want to establish that in the game. They are a little too conservative for their own good at times (I am sure their fans agree), but they want to establish the run.

The OL, IMHO is a little underrated when you look at the PFF stats. They aren't dominant, but they are all pretty good players. They are also pretty athletic as a group, which allows them to pull and run gap scheme quite a bit. To me, the schemes they run are very much like BC where they will overload and pull. They want to grind you into submission. The individual players aren't as physically dominant as BC was; that was the best OL I have seen this year. But they are pretty good. The only change they have made this season on the OL is that 72 now starts at RT in place of 68. 72 was a transfer from Wisconsin, and while he struggles in pass blocking he is an upgrade in the running game.

I do think our DL is going to hold up just fine against their OL. But there are two situations where they will give us some problems in the running game. I think they are going to be able to get some grind it out yardage when they pull a guard and run off the opposite guard. They will do that quite a bit to slow down the pace of the game, and then every once in a while 15 will keep it and run the other way if we cheat on it. That is the aspect of the power running game that BC couldn't take advantage of because their QB wasn't a mobile guy. The second situation to watch is their TE against our LBs. They are going to play with two TEs, and this again becomes a bit of a chess match because SMU would rather only play with two LBs. Their OL will engage our DL, which will leave our LBs and Moses in the slot against their two TEs and RB. Our three players are fast, not big, and it is going to be interesting to see which comes out on top in cold weather.

We gave up 180 running yards against BC in our worst performance in the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Penn State put up 150 in this game because of their physical nature.

PENN STATE PASSING AGAINST SMU DEFENSE

15 is a good QB. He can run, as mentioned, and he has fantastic mobility in the pocket. One of those guys who slides around and escapes pressure. He has an NFL arm. There are times where he will miss an easy throw, especially when he is on the move, which is why his rating drops when he throws under pressure. That said, if you blitz, he kills you. So SMU is not going to be able to blitz consistently during the game.

At WR, they aren't speed demons that are going to kill you over the top deep, but on the outside they like to draw you into the running game, find someone isolated against a corner after safeties help, and then throw a ball over the top to the outside for a 20 yard gain.

Wallace, 6, is their best WR, and is a really athletic player. He will line up on the left most of the time, so he will go against Deuce. This is a key matchup for SMU. The Penn State WR aren't going to go for 150 on you, but if you allow them to have a 7 for 80 type of day, it is going to be a long day at the office.

On the other side 5, who is okay, will go against Crossley. That is a matchup Crossley should be okay with, but again, we need to shut it down and not give them another offensive option.

In the slot, 2 is solid, but he doesn't scare you and I think SMU will match up okay there.

The biggest threat in the passing game is 44, Warren, the TE. He is awesome, clearly an NFL guy and wouldn't be surprised to see him off the board at the end of the first round. He is such a difficult matchup. Smart player, great hands, really athletic and has really good size. Because of him and the double TE looks that Penn State throws out there, I think you are going to see Moses in the slot a lot instead of Sanders.

This is where things get really hard with defending Penn State. SMU loves to play some man on the outside and zone in the middle or go full zone. But if you do that against Warren, he will absolutely carve you up across the middle. If you go man to try and take him out of the game, the RBs, especially 10, can really kill you in the passing game out of the back, and then 15 can also scramble really well and hurt you that way.

The big difference between this Penn State and others in the past is the efficiency of the Penn State offense in the passing game. It has improved substantially. More explosive plays in the passing game - not your 50 yarders, but the 20 yarders to the outside at WR, across the middle with Warren, or catch and run out of the backfield with 10.

And I am sure this is where it drives the Penn State fans nuts. If this team just opened things up a bit, used their weapons in the passing game to spread the field, and then ran the ball, IMHO it would transition them from just a contender to an elite team. I get it, two 800 yard running backs is nothing to sneeze at. And 11-2 is not bad. But in the Oregon game, Penn State showed that it can open things up and run with the best teams in the country. They just choose to bunker down and stay conservative too often.

Even though SMU can handle Penn State on the outside, the weakest part of our defense, in man coverage, I expect that we are going to have to play zone because of Warren, and the threats out of the backfield. If you invite Penn State to play conservative, they will take the invitation and run with it. I think that is what SMU will end up doing and try to allow the DL to win the game for them.

And that is the matchup SMU can win. The pass protection at both tackles and up the middle at center is suspect. JHH is going to get some free run at points during the game. And the longer the game goes on, our DE rotation will find more and more success against the tackles. We saw that against Clemson - early on, they could pass the ball, but as the game went along, we started to win all those matchups on the DL and shut them down. The question is if we can actually get to 15. he has only been sacked 12 times on the year. He has an uncanny ability to move and step up and either buy time or scramble and turn a dangerous situation into positive yards.

PREDICTION

I think this is going to be a real grind of a game. Both defenses are really good, and I think both DLs will win the line of scrimmage. It is going to be low scoring, and a struggle of a game at times. A classic Big 10 game.

I see two challenges for SMU. First, the Penn State OC is great at scripting drives at the beginning of the game. Now he has two weeks to do it. I can just about guarantee they get 7 on their opening drive. Second, while we can all say cold doesn't matter, there is one area that it really does. Catching a cold ball is hard. Cold balls are rock hard. They feel different from a warm ball. We saw drops in Boston, and we saw drops last week. I don't think it is a coincidence.

I certainly think that talent wise, it is a pretty good matchup. Both teams are going to struggle to move the ball. There is a chance that SMU is able to run the ball to the right side, establish the run, and play the passing game off of it and score a bunch of points, play at pace, and take advantage of depth. There is also a chance that SMU's DL is able to completely control the LOS and shut down the Penn State offense. If SMU makes a game of it or gets up early, the Penn State crowd may turn on the team.

But I think the first playoff game, on the road, in the cold environment catches up to SMU. And at some point, against a top 10 team on the road, the mistakes - drops, penalties, turnovers - are going to catch up to you and end the run. And in games like this, elite players are big. They have 11, 41, 4, and 44. I think that is too much for Brashard, Jennings, and our other very good players to overcome.

Penn State 24 - SMU 20. I hope they prove me wrong!

[indianmustang]

after reading everything it seems they Home field advantage is the difference

[peruna81]

Thanks, JasonB. As always, you give a very clear analysis.

BUT I HOPE YOU ARE DEAD WRONG ABOUT YOUR SECOND-TO-LAST SENTENCE.

[BUS]

Thank you, Jason - Again top shelf analysis.

I would like to add that we do get some pressure on the QB and the pick six is in the bag for this game. SMU wins!!!

OK, I'm a homer.
Love my Mustangs and the future so bright! "I got to wear shades"

[GiddyUp]

Great stuff. Have to play amazing with no dumb penalties or turnovers.
Pedo wins by 10

[HubbaHubba]

NM

[CA Mustang]

Observations after I attended the PSU-USC game. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sXBFs5ratk

* PSU's team speed isn't overwhelming. If SMU can create space, their speed will be an advantage.
* USC got several big plays out of misdirection (see their first score), which matches SMU's use of reverses, pop passes, etc.
* Even PSU fans admit their defense is susceptible to slant patterns (also see USC). SMU likes to run plenty of those (see Stanford) which helps limit the time Jennings has to hold the ball.

It will be a tough game, but there are some advantages SMU can exploit.