. As you might remember, against weaker teams I really like to evaluate the team based on who dominates individual matchups. In order to be competitive in the ACC, we should dominate individual matchups in a game like this. Players or groups that aren't able to control their matchup is a huge red flag heading into the season.
QB - I'm not worried about evaluating Jennings, he is a stud, and he is probably going to be out of the game after the first quarter or midway through the second. I'm more interested to see what they do with Ty. If I were Rhett, I am looking at this season and thinking that Ty might have to play a few snaps if Kevin is banged up at some point. But we really want to preserve that redshirt. Therefore, I am looking at playing Ty in EITHER the ET A&M game OR the Mo State game. I want that three game cushion to play with. So, just in case something happened against Baylor, I am going to play Ty the entire game after Kevin gets pulled in order to give him the maximum amount of college game experience. Maybe we see Fizer a series or two at the end, but I think Ty gets a LOT of run. When Ty is in the game, you are going to see a ton of RPO sprinkled in with some sprint option to the outside. He is an explosive runner, and that is going to really stand out if you haven't seen him play before. He has a great arm as well. I want to see if his ability to run the offense looks as good as it has in practice, and if he can mimic what he has done with the deep ball in practice in the game.
RB - Hopefully all 4 are healthy, because I think they will try and give each of them about 10 carries. First, can McFall and Johnson run the ball inside? We know Chris is super fast, and we all saw how shifty McFall was last season. But with this improved OL, especially up the middle, they need to be able to run between the tackles. We will see them hit some explosives outside in this game and during the season. But success in the ACC will depend on them being able to run the ball up the middle. Harden is the guy I want to see shine in this game. Bigger backs can excel against smaller teams, as we saw from LJ in the HBU game last year. So it is important not to overreact to a good game. But I want to see Harden
do better than the 8 for 50 LJ put up last season. I'd like to see 10 for over 60 with a run over 20 from him. The guy I'm most looking forward to is Chunky. He isn't as shifty as McFall, but he is fast and stronger, runs with power. I'm hopeful he is healthy enough to get his 10 carries.
WR/TE - We all think that Hudson has taken a step forward. I want to see him stand out in this game as a true number 1. He won't play a ton, because they are going to want to get Cooper and Brown a ton of snaps on that side, but I want to see if Jennings is immediately looking his way expecting him to be open and getting 4 catches in limited time. Behind him, Cooper was just an automatic machine working with Ty in the second team from what I saw. I expect him to flash in this game in a big way. Brown is such a physical player with great length, I want to see him in the redzone but I am also interested to see if he can get steady separation, which I haven't seen as much in practice. On the other side, I'm looking at Mello to establish himself as a deep threat. Can he get separation over the top? I would like to see at least one deep completion for him. Again, he is going to rotate in with Robertson and Link early, so we won't see much from Mello. Robertson I am pretty confident he can get separation in short and medium routes, but I want to see his threat over the top. And again, Link is supposed to be a burner in the Moochie mold, so it is would be great to see him pick up a deep pass as well.
In the slot, I think they are going to run RJ in one slot with Hibner on the field as a second TE close to the line. I think Moore is going to rotate into that slot TE position with RJ and then Eby will run HBack for Hibner at times. This will both take advantage of RJ's athleticism and the matchup issues he provides while also protecting that knee from interior line contact. I don't think RJ will play a ton, but it would be great to see him stretch the defense at least once and show that he still has that explosiveness. I believe that is going to be the base look on offense. Then, we will open things up from time to time and take out the TE on the line for a second slot WR. Knight looks incredible in that spot, and I want to see him do it in live action. It will immediately stand out how quick he is. Goffney also looks great there. Finally, I want to see Singleton in the second half and see if he adds another dimension with his speed.
OL - This is where I think we are going to take a big step forward, where I think we are much improved. I think we will try and run a lot right up the middle with Nichols on one tackle, Parr the other, and then Bates chipping to help Parr before hitting a LB at the second level. If that works, we should be able to churn out 5 yard runs straight up the gut all night long. That is something important that I am going to be evaluating on Saturday, because if we can't pull it off against ET A&M, we aren't going to get there in the ACC and need to rethink strategy. This is also a clear opportunity for Bates to establish why he should start at center - his combination of intelligence, strength, and mobility should allow him to get to the second level. If he can't do it, then SMU might need to reconsider the approach. I will also be watching Bates closely in pass protection to make sure he can hold the front of the pocket and make it clean for Jennings throwing.
It is unfortunate that I think Chamblee and Woods are out with injury, but I am really interested to see the reserves. Uter at backup center looks the part. We know that Anderson is solid, but with Woods out we should have the opportunity to watch Hoopi and see if he flashes as much as we have heard from the staff. Outside, with no Chamblee, are we going to see King Large out at RT? Interested to see him against live action, as well as Zion Nelson and Odoms on the left. I think that second team line is going to get a ton of run out there in the game, especially the two freshmen. The last drive or two we will start working the third team with Fizer, but until then it is a great opportunity to see who is ready. Again, players who just hold their own in this game aren't going to be ready for backup OL roles when we get to ACC play. What I would expect to see though is that the second group is able to really control the game up front and get a strong push in the running game. They won't be as dominant as the first group, but I expect them to still be able to run the ball effectively, and really with more explosiveness than we did in the second half against HBU last season.
DL - This is the fun part. The DL hasn't been as dominant as last year in practice... but also, the OL is a lot better than it was last season. Where exactly are things at? Are Webb and M'Ba just kind of doing their job inside, and allowing the LBs to make plays in the running game? Or are they able to get a push into the backfield and force negatives? Spencer and Allen have also flashed the ability to generate a push inside, and I want to see them do that against another team. Finally, is Spears just as good as Webb at the nose? Or is he just a space eater?
On the edge, I think we know that we have a lot of solid players in Cam, Walton, and Wilson on one side and Turbo, DJ, Lang, and Washington on the other. The three things I am going to watch: 1) We have a lot more flexibility with explosive pass rushers than in the past. So I think we are going to generate absolute chaos in passing downs with a combo of Turbo, DJ, and Washington when Symons gets creative and they can all pin their ears back and rush the QB. Does that pop in this game? 2) In standard situations, can Turbo just dominate in this game? We need an edge rusher that can win and generate a pass rush when we rush 4 and they still have to play the run. It needs to stand out in this game or it is going to be an issue all season. 3) Can DJ and Washington play both run and pass or are they going to be restricted to only pass rush situations?
LB - when coaches talk about teams swarming to the ball, that starts with the LBs. We had incredibly active starting LBs last year with Walker and Kobe. When the LBs are quick and responsive, the entire team collapses around then as they shoot to the ball to snuff out a play. When LBs are slow to react, the whole team is slow and plays on their heels. Kilgore I think is going to leave here as the best LB from SMU since the death penalty. I think he is going to be a monster. Can Barker match that energy? And as we rotate in the other LBs, who else shows that swarm? I've seen it from Miyazano even though he is a little undersized. Can he consistently bring it? Are Booker and Mark and Medlock ready to play? Is Ferm going to show up? Can we get more than a 3 player rotation this year at LB? If you start watching the defense and the defense starts to slow down and not swarm, that is usually an indication that the LBs are reading the play and moving quickly enough. Something to keep an eye on.
We have also heard that they like Medlock in coverage. That makes me wonder if they might have packages where they line up Washington at LB with Medlock, and have Washington blitz with Medlock is in coverage. Something to watch for in long yardage situation to get an extra rusher.
CB - We are going to see Deuce and Barnes rotate in and out on the right. The big question is what happens on the left. The depth chart now says Smoke OR Speedy. Is Speedy pushing, or is Smoke not consistent enough? There were several PIs on that side of the field at the practice I attended. I would expect a lot of rotation there and for players to get pulled if they have an interference call. That is the side to watch. In the second half of the game, we are going to see a ton of rotation between Speedy, Zay, and Holliday. This is an opportunity to see which of those freshmen might push if there are any struggles with Smoke. The length and speed out with the true freshmen is exactly what Symons loves to use in coordination with his safeties.
NCB - This is a huge open position as well. Earlier in the fall, we heard Symons talk about Chambers at RB... now it looks like he might be third string. This group is athletic - Chambers is probably the slowest of the three in coverage. I think this is the group that East Texas A&M will attack in order to build a possession game. Someone needs to grab this position like Sanders did last year. I *think* spencer is that guy. But JMJ is a really good athlete. And while Chambers can be a little slow to switch hips at time, his length is a problem and he makes plays. I think this group is going to get targeted, so they will have the opportunity to make some plays - PBU and INT. If they can make those plays in this game, it would really be a great thing for the defense overall, otherwise it might necessitate Moses sliding down.
S - Moses and NWO are the best pairing in the country. The more interesting thing is who is next. I actually think everyone in this group is really good. Polley I think is the guy who might push for serious time. If he can flash in this game, it might push Moses down to the slot eventually. But Mohammed can play. I really like the athleticism of KDW. Again, as the game goes along, if they try to throw on a younger secondary, this group is going to have plenty of opportunities to make plays. I'm interested to see which ones are mentally ready to anticipate and get the jump to be able to make things happen.
Overall, I would like to see an improvement on the score we beat Houston Christian by last season. We won that game 59-7, but in the second half we had these long, controlled time consuming drives with the backups, where we scored and didn't punt, but we didn't put up many points. With the depth on the OL and competition at RB this season, I would expect us to score more later in the game.
Defensively, East Texas A&M really kind of plays into an anticipated strength of our defense because they pass more than they throw. Last year, our stellar defense only gave up 150 yards to HCU. "Really Good" in my eyes would mean that we get good quality play from our nickel corners and generate great pressure off the edge on the line and limit ET A&M to under 200 yards of offense. I want to see if the pass rush is good enough to allow our improved speed in the secondary to generate turnovers.
PREDICTION
I think East Texas A&M is going to put together a short passing game to try and run small slants off of our nickel corners and maintain possession as much as they can, while getting the ball out before our line can get to the QB. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a young corner or safety blow coverage and give up a deep pass in the second half. I WANT to see us limit them to 200 yards of offense, but I'm not sure that is going to happen.
All of that said, I think we are going to be better on offense and more dominant later in the game because of the strength of our second team. I think the freshmen are going to want to ball out, we are going to want to evaluate them and Ty in the passing game, so we won't just run the ball the entire second half, and even when we run, we have 4 studs and another walk-on who actually looks pretty good if he is healthy. Maybe we even see a little Chambers back there
. SMU 70-17
