Deeper Analysis

[GoRedGoBlue]

THIS ANALYSIS LOOKS AT OPPONENTS SCHEDULE IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO THE SMU CONTEST - TO WHICH THIS AUTHOR THINKS CAN PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE OUTCOME, ESPECIALLY OF MARGINAL TEAMS.

SEE: TCU LAST YEAR, SANDWICHING SMU BETWEEN OU AND UTAH (THUR).

Sat., Sep. 2 Texas Tech Lubbock, Texas 6:00 PM
ON THE ROAD AGAINST A TOP25 TEAM. SHOULD LOSE. ONLY CHANCE IS A YOUNG TECH QB MAKING MISTAKES.

Sat., Sep. 9 North Texas Denton, Texas 6:00 PM
THIS TEAM FINISHED LAST IN THE SUNBELT LAST YEAR. LINDY'S HAS THEM 3RD IN THEIR CONFERENCE. WE GET THEM AFTER THEY GET PUMMELED at TEXAS. WE SHOULD WIN THIS GAME WITHOUT QUESTION.

Sat., Sep. 16 Sam Houston State Dallas, Texas 7:00 PM
DIV1-AA AT HOME. SHOULD WIN, OR ELSE.

Sat., Sep. 23 Arkansas State Dallas, Texas 7:00 PM
SUNBELT CHAMP LOSES THEIR STARTING QB AND THEIR TWO HIGHLY TOUTED RB'S. WE GET THEM AFTER THEY PLAY OKIE STATE. PICKED 4TH IN SUNBELT BY LINDY'S. "When the Indians won last season, it was on big plays from the quarterback and running back positions, and those big-play performers aren’t around any more." SHOULD WIN.

Sat., Sep. 30 Tulane New Orleans, La. CSTV 8:00 PM
WHO KNOWS. BUT TULANE COMES OFF 3 ROAD GAMES at HOU, at MISS ST, AND at LSU AND SHOULD BE PRETTY BATTLE WEARY (HURT).
THEIR LBS ARE WEAKER THAN OURS ARE. PROBABLY WIN.

Sat., Oct. 7 UTEP El Paso, Texas 8:05 PM
PICKED 2-3 IN CUSA-W BY MOST. WHICH TEAM SHOWS UP? THE 8-1 TEAM OR THE ONE THAT LOST THEIR FINAL 3 GAMES BY 120-63. PROBABLE LOSS, BUT WE BEAT THEM LAST YEAR.

Sat., Oct. 14 Marshall Dallas, Texas 2:00 PM
MARSHALL OPENS at W.VIRG., THEN HOFSTRA, BUT HAS TWO MORE GAMES ON THE ROAD at KSTATE AND at TENNESSEE BEFORE HOME WITH UCF. COULD THIS TEAM BE BATTLE TESTED OR BATTLE WEARY? HOME GAME AGAINST A WEAK MARSHALL TEAM. PROBABLE WIN.

Sat., Oct. 21 East Carolina Greenville, N.C. 2:00 PM
WHO KNOWS. TRENDING L BECAUSE ON THE ROAD, BUT TOSS UP.

Tue., Oct. 31 UAB Dallas, Texas ESPN2 6:30 PM
UAB LOSES ALL-TIME BEST QB D.HACKNEY, BUT HAS GOOD RBS. WE PLAY AT HOME ON A SHORT WEEK (TUESDAY), THOUGH UAB HAS 10 DAYS TO PREPARE, BUT SO DO WE. TRENDING W AT HOME, BUT TOSS UP.

Sat., Nov. 11 Houston Dallas, Texas 2:00 PM
NEW D'COORDINATOR. BUT TOO MANY RETURNING STARTERS. WE WON ON THE ROAD LAST YEAR, BUT PROBABLE LOSS.

Sat., Nov. 18 Tulsa Dallas, Texas 2:00 PM
TOP CUSA TEAM. PLAYED WELL LAST YEAR, AND IS AT HOME, BUT SHOULE LOSE.

Sat., Nov. 25 Rice Houston, Texas 2:00 PM
RICE IS NEW ALL-OVER. NEVERMIND THIS TEAM PLAYS at UCLA, TEXAS, AND at FLORIDA STATE THIS YEAR. SHOULD WIN OVER WHAT'S LIKELY TO BE A BEAT UP AND BEATEN DOWN TEAM THAT WILL START THE SEASON 0-4 BEFORE GOING ON THE ROAD at ARMY.

YES, ANYTHING'S POSSIBLE (SMU LOSING TO SHSU/RICE THIS YEAR, OR BEATING UTEP, HOUSTON, AND #11TCU LAST YEAR), BUT HERE'S THE BREAKDOWN.

SHOULD WIN.....4 (1-0 LAST YEAR AND WE PICK UP 3 BAD TEAMS)
PROBABLE WIN...2 (0-2 LAST YEAR, BUT WE GET MU AT HOME, AND TULANE AFTER THEIR 3 GIANT ROAD LOSSES)
TOSS UP........2 (1-1 LAST YEAR)
PROBABLE LOSS..2 (2-0 LAST YEAR, WERE THOSE FLUKES?)
SHOULD LOSE:...2 (0-1 LAST YEAR, ADD TEXAS TECH).

[McClown27]

The Tulane game is a trap. They are gonna be so pumped.

[SMU Football Blog]

I take a wait and see approach regarding the Tulane game. They are likely going to be 0-3. It isn't like they are going to sell out the Superdome. New Orleans still is going to have 1/3 the population it did two years ago. Tulane itself has shrunk by 25%. It isn't on campus. Maybe somehting happens and they get a huge emotional lift by playing there, but it by no means a guarantee.

[AusTxPony]

I think the above analysis is right on, except UAB. SMU has 10 days to prepare as well and Bennett's record after an off weekend is very good I think. So I would put that in the Should Win column.

[GoRedGoBlue]

good catch, I thought we played the sat before...I will update

[smu diamond m]

The UAB game is gonna be CRAZY.

Tuesday night, television, and halloween. Just crazy.

[jtstang]

Sat., Sep. 2 Texas Tech Lubbock, Texas 6:00 PM
ON THE ROAD AGAINST A TOP25 TEAM. SHOULD LOSE. ONLY CHANCE IS A YOUNG TECH QB MAKING MISTAKES.

Funny that for all games you have NO CONCERNS OF A YOUNG SMU QB MAKING MISTAKES.

[GoRedGoBlue]

Sat., Sep. 2 Texas Tech Lubbock, Texas 6:00 PM
ON THE ROAD AGAINST A TOP25 TEAM. SHOULD LOSE. ONLY CHANCE IS A YOUNG TECH QB MAKING MISTAKES.

Funny on the rest of the games you have NO CONCERNS OF A YOUNG SMU QB MAKING MISTAKES.

uh-huh...yep. you're so right. and we have a veteran line, backfield, and wr's and three easier games for him to learn along the way. if he sucks that bad, then we will go 1-11.

however, we should be able to run demyron for 5 wins this year even if he is average at best. ALL publications think he is better than our qbs last year.

does no one else in the league has this qb issue? uab and arkst come to mind, and tulane can't figure out who their qb should be.

my concern for our young qb is factored in the probability quotients as is our returning starters otherwise on offense. even with a young qb, we should beat unt, rice, arkst and shsu. the only way we beat tech is if their young qb makes horrific mistakes. put another way, the only way we LOSE to unt et al is if our young qb makes horrific mistakes.

[SmooPower]

YOUR USE OF CAPITAL LETTERS IMPRESSES ME

[jtstang]

put another way, the only way we LOSE to unt et al is if our young qb makes horrific mistakes.

And if he does, he'll find himself battling for PT with the rest of the tight end platoon.

I don't have any expectations that we'll pull off any of the FREE wins you've predicted, but hope so and I will be pleasantly surprised if we do. But if we don't, I'm going to have a lot of fun recalling your prognostications. Good luck out on that branch.

[McAndless]

Let the Phillips situation rest. Its apparent he isn't a true QB, especially after a shoulder injury that took a while to recover limited his already less than average throwing accuracy. Let his athleticism get him on the field.

[jtstang]

Let the Phillips situation rest. Its apparent he isn't a true QB, especially after a shoulder injury that took a while to recover limited his already less than average throwing accuracy. Let his athleticism get him on the field.

Okay.

But what about the Tate Wallis situation and the Kelan Luker situation and the Richard Bartel situation and the Donnie Gilray situation and the Josh McCown situation and the Chris Sanders situation and the ....

I think I can accurately say that SMU's demonstrated ability to develop QBs within its system, at least recently, is suspect. I just use the TE example as shorthand for that, since there are a couple of examples. And frankly, I'm not going to be sold on a QB until I see him actually perform. That does not seem to be a prerequisite for some prognisticators.

[Pony Fan]

we will beat Tulsa. We should have beat them last year.

[PK]

Let the Phillips situation rest. Its apparent he isn't a true QB, especially after a shoulder injury that took a while to recover limited his already less than average throwing accuracy. Let his athleticism get him on the field.

Okay.

But what about the Tate Wallis situation and the Kelan Luker situation and the Richard Bartel situation and the Donnie Gilray situation and the Josh McCown situation and the Chris Sanders situation and the ....

I think I can accurately say that SMU's demonstrated ability to develop QBs within its system, at least recently, is suspect. I just use the TE example as shorthand for that, since there are a couple of examples. And frankly, I'm not going to be sold on a QB until I see him actually perform. That does not seem to be a prerequisite for some prognisticators.

Whoa there cowboy...you are getting your regimes all mixed together and as such a little out of context. For the most part Sanders, McCown and Luker were the end results of Cavan's methodology. With Luker dropping put, PB was stuck with two questionable QB talents exasberated by less than super talented offensive linemen for protection and Gilray never made it to school if I remember correctly which makes that possibility, either way, an unknown.

Phillips had great potenial and showed signs of it prior to his injury. I don't know any more than anyone else whether the injury was real or not, but PB wants to and needs to produce a winning season...the best I can tell, he is not one to cut off his nose to spite his face...so I'm going to go with the injury story as true. All things considered, I think Romo did a pretty damn good job at QB last year.

Willis would appear to have the tools and knowledge of the offense necessary to be a very good QB for us. In the Red Blue game, he had poise and projected a level of confidence I haven't seen at that position at SMU in quite some time. I am cautiously optimistic about the outcome of next season and really looking forward to it getting started.

[jtstang]

Whoa there cowboy...you are getting your regimes all mixed together and as such a little out of context.

No, not really. I'm talking about the context of a program, not a regime. But whatever, our QB situation over the years speaks for itself.