TRENDS and SEASON ANALYSIS

[PhirePhilBennett]

Team - Trending - Prediction
ECU - upwards - Loss, but very winnable.
UAB - upwards - Win. We both have 10 days to prepare, but this is a home game.
HOU - upwards - Win, but buyer beware. "Houston has a problem now"
TUL - even - Loss, but this is a home game...if we are riding a 2 or 3 game streak by now, maybe we can pull it out
RICE - even - Win. Rice lacks talent, but man "they got spirit, yes they do, they got spirit how 'bout you?"

3-2, but every game is winnable, and every game is a possible loss.

ANALYSIS TO DATE:

2-2 in Non-conference.
Last year, we played 2 Big12 teams plus TCU. 1-2.
This year, we played 2 SunBelt teams, plus Tech, plus a 1-AA. 2-2.
We gained 1/2 game on that record.
VERDICT: Not good. This is actually worse than last year.

2-1 in Conference.
Last year, we lost to Tulane, beat UTEP, and lost to Marshall. 1-2. We won 1 at home, lost 2 on the road.
This year, we beat Tulane, lost to UTEP, and beat Marshall. 2-1. We went 1-1 on the road, and 1-0 at home.
We gained 1 game on that record.
VERDICT: Very good. Especially considering we gained a road victory over last year.

Remaining Schedule:
3 home games against teams we went 2-1 against on the road (win at Houston, win at UAB, loss at Tulsa).
2 road games against teams we went 1-1 against at home (loss to ECU, win over Rice)

MORE ANALYSIS:
A. If we win just our Home games, we are 3-2. We have a 5-game home winning streak.
B. If we win the same games we won last year, we are 3-2. This goes against our trend thus far in conference and would reverse if the trend holds up.
LIKELY OUTCOME: 3-2 even if we mix and match A. and B.

Most optimistic outlook:
We beat ECU this week and beat UAB with 10 days to prepare. UAB travels mid-week to Dallas. 2-0
We have 11 days to prepare for Houston who plays 7 days rest after Tulsa. Win for 3-0.
Loss to Tulsa because they are the standard bearer. 3-1.
Be prepared to beat Rice - no let downs against this scrappy energized team. 4-1.

The key games are ECU and HOU. That determines 2-3, 3-2, or possible 4-1.