For those wondering about our bowl chances...

[CalallenStang]

CUSA Tie-in bowls:

12/22 New Orleans Bowl
12/23 Birmingham Bowl
12/23 Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth)
12/29 Liberty
1/7 GMAC (Mobile)

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/ ... /bowls.htm

Wildcard:
12/28 Texas (Houston) - not sure if CUSA is actually affiliated this year or not, as the Bowl website says "The Texas Bowl will feature teams from the Big 12 and the Big East Conferences. In future years, the Bowl will also feature teams from Conference USA and, potentially, Texas Christian University." Yet, USAToday.com reports that the game will be "Big 12 vs. Big East or Conference USA."

So there are five sure tie-ins. Let's look at what each team has to do to become bowl eligible (6 wins) starting with CUSA East and then going to CUSA West:

CUSA East

Southern Miss (4-2) needs two wins in six games. They have some very winnable games on their schedule, with at Tulane, Marshall, ECU, UAB, and at Memphis still remaining in conference. The only sure loss on their schedule is next week at Virginia Tech.

UAB (3-4) needs three wins in their final five games. Their remaining schedule includes Marshall, at SMU, UTEP, at Southern Miss, and at UCF. This team lost to Rice and barely beat Memphis and ECU. I think they will win two, but not three. However, let's call their chances a toss-up.

UCF (2-4) needs four wins in six games. They have Rice, at Houston, ECU, at Memphis, at Tulane, and UAB remaining. IMO, they have a better schedule for becoming bowl eligible than UAB, but considering their only wins are over Villanova and a squeaker over Marshall, I don't think they will do it either.

ECU (2-4) needs four wins in six games with SMU, at Southern Miss, at UCF, Marshall, at Rice, and at North Carolina State remaining. Southern Miss looks very good right now and NC State is flat out better than ECU. Therefore, barring any improbabilities, they have to win out in the subset including SMU, UCF, Marshall, and Rice. I don't see that happening this year.

Memphis (1-5) needs to win 5 of 6. Their remaining schedule includes Tulsa, at Marshall, Southern Miss, UCF, Houston, and at UTEP. Honestly, does anyone think they can get it done?

Marshall (1-5) also needs to win 5 of 6. With at UAB, Memphis, Tulane, at ECU, UTEP, and at Southern Miss remaining, it's highly unlikely they will do it.

My prediction for East bowl-eligible teams: Southern Miss. (UAB could squeak in there.)

Now onto the West:

Tulsa (5-1) needs to win one game. With a schedule that includes at Memphis, UTEP, at Houston, Rice, at SMU, and Tulane, I don't see them losing out. Put them in a bowl game.

UTEP (4-2) needs two wins out of a remaining schedule that includes at Houston, at Tulsa, Rice, at UAB, at Marshall, and Memphis. While the Miners are not as good as some would have you believe, they will be going to a bowl in my opinion.

Houston (4-3) needs two wins in five games. They still have UTEP, UCF, Tulsa, at SMU, and at Memphis. My instinct tells me that they will get exactly two wins. However, if they play like they did in their loss to U La La, they won't win any of these games. The Cougs must take advantage of their weaker opponents to become bowl eligible. I think they can do it.

Rice (2-5) needs four wins out of five. Their schedule includes at UCF, at UTEP, at Tulsa, ECU, and SMU. It's highly unlikeley that they will win four of those five games.

Tulane (2-4) has a sure loss coming up next week at Auburn. They will need to win four out of five on a schedule that includes Army, at Marshall, Southern Miss, UCF, and at Tulsa. I just don't see them doing it.

Finally...SMU...we need two wins to be bowl-eligible and with a schedule including at ECU, UAB, Houston, Tulsa, and at Rice, I think we will get at least two wins.

My prediction for the West bowl-eligible teams: Tulsa, UTEP, Houston, SMU

If UAB becomes bowl-eligible and CUSA does not get a spot in the Texas Bowl, we will have to make ourselves more attractive by winning three or even four of those five games, and by figuring out some way to improve our attendance over the stretch. Currently, we are last in CUSA in attendance average.

If UAB is not bowl-eligible and my predictions become reality, six wins will suffice for a bowl berth.

[SmooPower]

CUSA ges the Texas Bowl next year.

[ponyte]

I believe we need 4 wins to go bowling. Regardless of tie-ins, we need to make a statement that SMU has returned. The schedule favors us (3 at home with ECU and Rice on the road). We have no bowl attendance record in two decades. Our current attendance record isn't awe-inspiring. We do not have the mythical draw of a Notre Dame. We have to prove we belong in a bowl to be noticed. We can win against any opponent left on our schedule (may not be easy). But we can do it.

[ThadFilms]

CUSA ges the Texas Bowl next year.

Yep. Every other year for the Texas Houston thingy bowl... next year for CUSA.

[CalallenStang]

CUSA ges the Texas Bowl next year.

Yep. Every other year for the Texas Houston thingy bowl... next year for CUSA.

*marks it down*

Someone should tell USAToday.

So that leaves 5 tie-ins. UAB is the team that has the potential to screw this up for us.

[BrianTinBigD]

CUSA Bowl Opponent Projections -

New Orleans Bowl - Ark. St, MTSU, ULaLa vs. Houston
Birmingham Bowl - Ohio or N. Ill.
Armed Forces Bowl - TCU
Texas - Oklahoma State vs. Big East Opponent
Liberty - South Carolina or 'Bama
GMAC - Kent St.

[LawSchoolPony]

you said we have the worst average attendance?? No way, Rice has got to be much worse

[Stallion]

they played Texas at home.

[CalallenStang]

you said we have the worst average attendance?? No way, Rice has got to be much worse

C-USA Attendance Averages:

1.UTEP - 45,129
2.UM - 42,653
3.ECU - 36,873
4.UCF - 33,876
5.USM - 30,774
6.UAB - 28,171
7.MU - 27,217
8.Rice - 24,525
9.UH - 22,403
10.Tulsa - 21,993
11.Tulane - 18,315
12.SMU - 14,811

[LawSchoolPony]

which big team did rice play at home to bump their average up so high?

Last year, we had Baylor and TCU at home to bump ours up.

[CalallenStang]

which big team did rice play at home to bump their average up so high?

Last year, we had Baylor and TCU at home to bump ours up.

They played Texas in a "home" game in Reliant Stadium.

[docabel]

The fact that Rice is averaging around 25K this year is even more "alarming/misleading", when you realize that the Owls have only played 2 home games this year - Houston and Texas. The Texas game, would have to have drawn nearly 50K - being in Reliant Stadium and all. So what does that mean that they drew for the Houston game? - a school that is only about 10 miles away?

You gotta give it to the Owls, they are smart. One of the main reasons they scheduled UT for a 6 year agreement, is that they get 1 home game every 3 years to boost their attendance numbers. Remember, you only need to average 15K once every 2 or 3 years to remain in the good graces of the NCAA. Before the Texas series was started, they were sitting at around the 9-10K average.

[mustangfan01]

I would rather be 4-3 at 15,000 than 2-5 at 25,000...or whatever their record is.

[docabel]

I think the best point to be made from CalallenStang's excellent analysis is that the UAB game may be out most important of the year. If we end up in this morass of teams around 6-7 wins, then a victory over one of those other teams would be most impressive.

[CalallenStang]

docabel, Rice had a home game yesterday against UAB. Currently, their attendance has been as follows:

Houston (Rice Stadium) - 23352
Texas (Reliant Stadium) - 40069
UAB (Rice Stadium) - 10153

Also, thanks for the compliment on my analysis, though I am not sure I deserve it Indeed, UAB will be an extremely important game. We could get to six wins without beating UAB, but a loss to UAB would make it that much easier for the Blazers to reach 6 wins themselves.