TCU #5 this week in BCS (most probably)

[GoRedGoBlue]

Unchartered Territory
Barring some unforeseen computer calculations, it appears safe to say that this week TCU will become the first team ever from a non-BCS conference to hold a top-six spot in the BCS Standings. This is significant because a top-six finish in the BCS Standings guarantees a place in a BCS bowl game if your team does not play in a BCS conference. In other words, TCU will be in the Bowl Championship Series if it can hold its ground over the final four weekends of the regular season.


For Texas Christian, holding its ground involves more than just winning its remaining games, however. The Horned Frogs will lose points in the schedule strength column because of their season finale against currently winless SMU, and such a weak opponent typically has a negative impact on computer rankings, as well. In order to offset this potential damage to its BCS score, TCU probably needs to climb a little bit higher in the polls of human voters.


Therefore, the BCS fate of the Frogs (if they can beat Cincinnati, Southern Miss and SMU) will sit predominantly in the hands of coaches and media, many of whom have strong personal opinions about whether a non-BCS team should or should not be in a major bowl game. Unfortunately, the voting over the final few weeks has the potential to be as much about agendas as TCU's perceived worthiness of a shot at the big boys.


These pollsters are currently giving the Frogs an average ranking of 9.5, which combined with a likely final schedule strength ranking in the 90s, would not have been good enough to reach the closing top six in any previous season of the BCS.


Sixth place teams in the BCS Standings
Year Team Poll average Schedule rank
2002 Washington St. 7.0 21
2001 Tennessee 8.0 3
2000 Oregon St. 5.5 42
1999 Kansas St. 7.0 63
1998 Texas A&M 8.5 5


That TCU has even reached this high in the polls is somewhat remarkable, considering that it has won five games by exactly three points and another by seven points against what is the nation's sixth-weakest schedule based on opponents' winning percentage.


The Back Door
If TCU goes undefeated but is not able to finish the season in the BCS top six, the Frogs could still be extended an at-large bid to play in a major bowl. On the surface, it may sound ridiculous to suggest that one of these bowls would willingly take Texas Christian, but if you look a little bit closer, it might not be so farfetched.


Eight teams will play in the Bowl Championship Series: champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10 and SEC along with two at-large selections. A team that is not a champion of one of those conferences, such as TCU, must be ranked in the final BCS top 12 to be eligible for at-large consideration.


At the moment, Texas seems to be a likely non-champion that will finish with a 10-2 record and a top-12 BCS ranking. The Longhorns have not yet been to a BCS game under Mack Brown, which makes it likely that they would bring a sizeable following of fans along with their big name and football tradition. Fan base and a marquee name are factors that often secure at-large berths for schools.


That said, the defending national champion Buckeyes would become another great at-large candidate if they beat Purdue this week but lose at Michigan to finish at 10-2. For the bowl representatives, it would be difficult to pass up either Texas or Ohio State if they are available with only two losses.


But what if OSU loses to Purdue and Michigan? Or what if the Buckeyes win out and give the Wolverines a third loss? Depending on how the SEC shakes out, there might not be another team with such a great name and record that it wouldn't be worth taking a chance on TCU. Is Washington State, Virginia Tech or Purdue that much greater of a draw? That's something that might have to be evaluated.


Next week, I'll take an early look at the BCS games and how they might line up, including projections on conference champions and at-large teams.


Don't forget, the SEC champion normally goes to the Nokia Sugar Bowl, but it will be sent elsewhere this year if it is not ranked in the final top two of the BCS Standings. If Oklahoma stays at No. 1, the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl would get the first choice from the BCS pool because that game normally gets the Big 12 champ. The Rose Bowl would get the second choice if it loses Pac-10 winner USC to the title game. These parameters could make for some interesting matchups in January.


Projected BCS Standings
Stay tuned throughout the afternoon and evening for more updates to this projection.


1. Oklahoma
2. Southern California
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
5. TCU
6. Tennessee

[Charleston Pony]

the coaches' poll, which I consider to be as good as any, has TCU at # 9 today.That's very impressive, when you consider that places them ahead of Miami, Tenn, Va Tech, Pitt, Fla St, Nebraska, Florida, etc... When you look at their ranking against those teams, hard to say that it's justified and easy to see why TCU might be passed over by the BCS bowls. BUT...it would still be nice to let them prove it ON THE FIELD whether they belong with that group.

Here's one writer's opinion:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dallas/sports/topstories/stories/111003dnspowhitmirecol.1df09.html

<small>[ 11-10-2003, 03:31 AM: Message edited by: Charleston Pony ]</small>

[GoRedGoBlue]

If you went week by week in the coaches or the ap polls, and you DIDN'T allow teams below to skip undefeated teams above them (i.e., Oregon in Week 4 or something went from unranked to #8 before losing and dropping back out of the polls, meanwhile other teams like WashSt etc did the same JUMPING TCU), then TCU would be ranked about 2 or 3 right now.

Texas is the most recent example, having recently been ranked #20, now are ahead of TCU in both polls, despite a loss to non-ranked team Ark. Currently, TENNESSEE just jumped from #18 to #9 over TCU in the AP.

All teams above TCU except OU have a loss to an unranked team. Michigan to Oregon, Wash St to 3-win ND, Texas to Arkansas, Georgia to Arkansas, etc.

[The PonyGrad]

Barring some unforeseen computer calculations, it appears safe to say that this week TCU will become the first team ever from a non-BCS conference to hold a top-six spot in the BCS Standings.

Not so fast. They were #9 and as I recall only three teams above them in the BCS lost, one of which is still ahead in the polls. They only gained 3 spots in the polls. How in the world to they get to #5??

I expect they will only get to #7 or #8 this week.

1 OK
2 USC
3 Ohio St.
4 LSU
5 Mich.
6 Ga.
7 Texas or TCU
8 Texas or TCU
9 Wa. St.

Also, this is nonsense about SOS getting worse for TCU. At worst SMU could only add .1 or .2 to their SOS score and that is not likely to make the difference. One place in the coaches or writers poll is worth .5 each. That is where they will make it or break it.

[The PonyGrad]

If my list is correct, TCU may not even make it to #6 (as I earlier predicted.) They will need losses above them.

1 OK (wins out)
2 USC (UCLA and Ore. St. at home)
3 Ohio St. (Purdue and Mich)
4 LSU (ole Miss. away, and Ark)
5 Mich. (Ohio St.)
6 Ga. (3 decent teams left)
7 Texas or TCU
8 Texas or TCU
9 Wa. St.

OK, Texas will win out with Tech at home and A&M anywhere. Either Oh. St. or Mich. will knock the other off. That is worth one place. LSU could lose either remaining game or the SEC playoff. Ga. could lose one as well.

But all these teams besides Oh. St. vs. Mi. could win out and that would likely leave TCU at #7. Remember K.St.

[EastStang]

TCU's BCS score should be somewhere around (depending on the computer nerd rankings) 18-21. But they have no losses. Every loss ads 1 point to the BCS score of a team. Thus teams with two losses sacrifice 2 points to the Froggies.