Picking the NCAA tournament field

[George S. Patton]

We have about a month or so before the field is announced. I've never been very good at picking these fields, but what the heck. A lot can change, so I'm just going to stick with the major conferences and some mid-majors. The one-bid leagues will take care of themselves.

ACC
Duke, UNC, Clemson
Edit: I dropped Maryland because of their collapse. Think Miami (Fla.) needs to win in the first round of the ACC to get there.

Big East
Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Pittsburgh, Marquette
Edit: Syracuse probably has to go to the conference semis to get there.

Big 10
Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State
Edit: I think OSU got itself back in with huge wins over Purdue and Michigan St. Another win over the Spartans in the tournament will seal it.

Big 12
Texas, Kansas, Baylor, A&M, Kansas State
Edit: Leaving A&M on there if the Aggies win in the first round of the tournament

Pac 10
UCLA, Washington St., USC, Stanford
Edit: Arizona and Oregon need good showings in the Pac 10 tournament

SEC
Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Edit: I still think the Hogs are in but they have a tough matchup in the quarterfinals against likely Vandy


West Coast
St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Edit: St. Mary's may have hurt itself with its semifinal loss to San Diego in the tournament. Now, with San Diego knocking off Gonzaga in the finals, this definitely knocks some bubble team out of there because after thinking about it, the committee is taking 3 from this league.

Atlantic 10
Xavier
Edit: I dropped St. Joseph's and Rhode Island because this is a mess in that conference. The league probably went from 4 bids to maybe 2.

Moutain West
UNLV, BYU
Edit: Still think so. If New Mexico gets to the semifinals, Steve Alford's crew has a pretty good chance.

CUSA
Memphis
Edit: I dropped Houston because of their tank job. You don't lose to ECU and UTEP and think you're a NCAA tournament team. UAB probably has to get to the finals to have a chance to be considered.


Teams to watch
Kentucky -- All you Billy Gillespie haters beware. The Wildcats look like they're getting it together. They went 12-4 in the league. They'll get the winner of Georgia-Ole Miss. One more win, and they are in.

West Virginia, Syracuse -- These are two interchangeable and really need to work down the stretch to get into the field. They've had some close games get away from them.

Western Ky. -- Great record but may have to win the Sun Belt to get to the tournament with South Alabama.

Illinois State -- It's a down year in the Missouri Valley as the powers, Creighton and So. Illinois are not what they have been. This is a one-bid league in Drake if somebody else doesn't win the conference tournament. Edit: The Redbirds really impressed and have played their way into the conversation.

Va. Tech -- Team in the middle of the ACC standings and need to probably knock each other out. I think the ACC is getting 5 teams max.

Dayton -- The Flyers really have struggled in conference play after picking up great wins against Louisville and Pitt. They're about to throw those away if they don't get their act together.

Ole Miss -- The Rebels have collapsed in league play and in the same position as Dayton is. Edit: They may be saving their season by this late run. But they have to beat Georgia in order to stay alive in the talk. If they beat Kentucky, then everything changes.

San Diego State -- Nothing about their season sticks out including their record. Their recent loss to TCU is a crippler. Edit: They're out.

UAB -- Mike Davis is doing a nice job, but I don't see them making the field. Too many bad losses in there. Nice win at Kentucky but not enough.
Edit: see above.

Just a few random thoughts.

[J.T.supporta]

yet again, CUSA will only have 1 representative, Memphis. Unless someone upsets them in the CUSA tourney

[QuikSStang]

yet again, CUSA will only have 1 representative, Memphis. Unless someone upsets them in the CUSA tourney

i'd have to say the odds of that are 2,000 to 1

[DickerJames]

yet again, CUSA will only have 1 representative, Memphis. Unless someone upsets them in the CUSA tourney

I think we will have two this year if either Houston or UAB make it to the championship game and only lose to Memphis the rest of the way.

[Hoop Fan]

its hard to argue that being in Cusa is hurting memphis right now based on their ranking. but truth is they are doing it despite being in CUSA. they absolutely loaded up their non conference schedule. For the health and long term viability of this league, some schools better step it up in a serious way. SMU included.

[MustangStealth]

If Houston wins out other than their games against Memphis, they will have a strong case. One other loss and they'll be in the NIT though. Also look for the A-10 to get 4 teams in this year, and the MVC, Horizon, and WCC fighting for 2 at large spots.

Also, for those bemoaning the glory days of the WAC, look where they are now. 20th in conference RPI with the highest rated team currently in the 70s. They are a definite one bid league now.

[CA Mustang]

Pac 10
UCLA, Washington St., USC, Arizona, Stanford

Five should be the minimum for the Pac-10, while six is likely and seven is possibile. One or two more bids will come from the group below if they can finish above .500 in conference and win a game in the conference tournament.

ASU - (15-7, 5-5) Swept Arizona and crushed A-10 leader Xavier.

California - (14-8, 5-6) Wins over USC, WSU, SDSU and Nevada.

Oregon - (14-8, 5-6) Wins over KSU, Utah, Pacific, Arizona, Stanford and California.

[George S. Patton]

Pac 10
UCLA, Washington St., USC, Arizona, Stanford

Five should be the minimum for the Pac-10, while six is likely and seven is possibile. One or two more bids will come from the group below if they can finish above .500 in conference and win a game in the conference tournament.

ASU - (15-7, 5-5) Swept Arizona and crushed A-10 leader Xavier.

California - (14-8, 5-6) Wins over USC, WSU, SDSU and Nevada.

Oregon - (14-8, 5-6) Wins over KSU, Utah, Pacific, Arizona, Stanford and California.

Personally, I think the Pac 10 is the toughest conference out there -- Sorry, Big East -- but they've got to get a couple of teams to .500 in league play.

I wrote this before Arizona State won at Arizona -- Nice job Herb Sendek is doing -- Cal is a bit of mystery. Good enough to get in but they need a big last month. I don't trust Oregon.

[gregkinzer]

Herb Sendek is a good coach.

[expony18]

only 4 from the acc

[George S. Patton]

only 4 from the acc

It's a little top heavy. I wrote about the conference getting a fifth. But somebody is going to have to make a charge. The conference just isn't as good as the Pac 10 or the Big East.

[George S. Patton]

Maybe I spoke too soon about Kentucky

Haltime score
Vanderbilt 41
Kentucky 11

[J.T.supporta]

Maybe I spoke too soon about Kentucky

Haltime score
Vanderbilt 41
Kentucky 11

didnt see this before i posted the thread...but its not looking good for UK

[CA Mustang]

Maybe I spoke too soon about Kentucky

Haltime score
Vanderbilt 41
Kentucky 11

Is that game at Kentucky?

[George S. Patton]

Maybe I spoke too soon about Kentucky

Haltime score
Vanderbilt 41
Kentucky 11

Is that game at Kentucky?

Nashville