Percentages of All-Americans by star levels

[Garret]

http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/story/2008/3/17/71811/4082

I've seen the stats discussed here about how there are more All-Americans who were rated 3-star or lower out of high school, and the counter argument about how there are more players at the lower levels. I was glad that the website actually ran the numbers and was interested in what the results had to say.

Odds of Becoming All-America by Star Level Ranks (using Rivals):

Overall chances ignoring all star ratings: 1 in 59 players will make All-America
Five-Star: 1 in 9 players
Four-Star: 1 in 27 players
Three-Star: 1 in 50 players
Two-Star or Lower: 1 in 102

Five-star prospects were about three times as likely to earn an all-America vote than four-star prospects, five-and-a-half times as likely as a three-star prospect, eleven times as likely as a one, two or zero-star prospect. If the setting was 'random; – if the rankings were worthless – every level would show roughly the same 1 in 59 odds of producing an all-American. Three, four and five-star prospects all fared better than that, the top two much better than that. Zero, one and two-stars were not close. If you pay attention to the distribution of the star rankings, the results are nothing like a bell curve. They look like this:

Which is basically what Peter (and the recruiting services) predicted. I.e., common sense. Boring, I know.

But if one of the measures of the "sole purpose" of the guru rankings is their ability to "show a much greater percentage of 5-star recruits making the All-America team than 0-stars," then those rankings succeeded wildly. For predictive purposes, they are generally what they say they are.

[Stallion]

plus the 1 in 102 Two Star was probably highly recruited. The same types of grossly disporportionate numbers hold for the NFL Draft as well. Those that really understand college football have always realized this truth-those with superficial knowledge of the topic cite exceptions. List exceptions below:

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[abezontar]

Stallion

[smu diamond m]

Stallion

:lol:

[me@smu]

1 out of 90...number of kids playing in the CUSA that were named to the all-american team by any of the following:Associated Press, Football Writers Association of America, American Football Coaches Association, Walter Camp Foundation, The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, Pro Football Weekly, ESPN, CBS Sports, College Football News, Rivals.com, and Scout.com.

Those who really understand football, understand that you don't need to get 5*s to win the CUSA.

[Garret]

1 out of 90...number of kids playing in the CUSA that were named to the all-american team by any of the following:Associated Press, Football Writers Association of America, American Football Coaches Association, Walter Camp Foundation, The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, Pro Football Weekly, ESPN, CBS Sports, College Football News, Rivals.com, and Scout.com.

Those who really understand football, understand that you don't need to get 5*s to win the CUSA.

I agree that you don't need All-Americans to win, in any conference including C-USA. A team that plays together and runs a system that is a great equalizer, like the run-and-shoot, can compete with anyone...provided the D can hold their own, of course.

All-American status often flows from good coaching and winning. This year Hawaii had Colt as a Heisman finalist (plus 2nd team SI All-American, 3rd team AP All-American), Bess as a 3rd team AP All-American, Ryan Grice-Mullins as a 2nd team SI All-American, and Satele as a 1st team (they only have 5 OL on the team, no 2nd team) Football Writers Association of American. Four players at Hawaii earned All-American status this past year, which is amazing when you consider the stars next to their name when they entered UH.

[Garret]

Amazing to me that C-USA had 1 All-American for the entire conference and Hawaii had 4 All-Americans on their team...

[PK]

Amazing to me that C-USA had 1 All-American for the entire conference and Hawaii had 4 All-Americans on their team...

Actually Garret, C-USA has more than 90 players thus for the conference, based upon the statement by me@smu of 1 out of 90, we probably had between 12 and 15.

[Garret]

Amazing to me that C-USA had 1 All-American for the entire conference and Hawaii had 4 All-Americans on their team...

Actually Garret, C-USA has more than 90 players thus for the conference, based upon the statement by me@smu of 1 out of 90, we probably had between 12 and 15.

PK,

Thank you for the clarification. I guess I misunderstood the previous poster. I thought that the previous poster said that C-USA had 1 All-American this past year and I was pointing out that UH had 4 All-Americans last year.

[me@smu]

Actually the 90 I was referring to are the 1st team All-American selections by any of the major publications. Only one player of the 90 players selected was from CUSA.

Only Satele would count from Hawaii in this 90.

If you want to do the entire lists...CUSA have four reps no matter the team (Forte/K. Smith/ C. Johnson/ Dillard) versus Hawaii who would have 4.

[Garret]

Actually the 90 I was referring to are the 1st team All-American selections by any of the major publications. Only one player of the 90 players selected was from CUSA.

Only Satele would count from Hawaii in this 90.

If you want to do the entire lists...CUSA have four reps no matter the team (Forte/K. Smith/ C. Johnson/ Dillard) versus Hawaii who would have 4.

Thank you for the clarification. I didn't realize that you were only going by first team All-Americans in your count. I would add that Colt Brennan's Heisman finalist spot is probably at least equivalent to being named to the 1st team of one of the major publications.