5-4

[ponyte]

That is the win-loss record we need to go to a bowl. And we have had a good September. A winning record during September has been something we have longed for for decades.

Yes, WSU hurt. I couldn't sleep last night I was so upset. Not having the advantage of actually seeing the game, I can only speculate.

Our D is for real this year. Our D consistently shut down WSU. The week before it was the D that won the game. Our D has performed in both halves and not just one half. We are getting turnovers. We are making plays both behind the line and breaking up passes. We are in 3rd and long situations instead of 3rd and short like the last two seasons. And our Defense has stayed with a large BSC team's line. This is a vast improvement.

Special teams have been a problem in the pass but not so this year.

The O line has been the biggest surprise (and least recognized) this year. Our QB has time and isn't getting sacked. Our running game has vastly improved. All this is due to much better Oline play. Great job guys.

Offensive skill people are second to none. They are making the plays that we need.

The biggest problem so far is turnovers. And most of the turnovers and the ones that hurt the most are occurring in the second half. It appears our opponents are making adjustments and it is paying dividends. We are not adjusting to our opponent's adjustments and it is killing us. That is up to the coaches. BLM had a career day yesterday until the second half after WSU made defensive adjustments. It is the job of the coaches to recognize the adjustments and respond, not some kid on the field.

So far our offense isn't performing in the second half. Time to take a critical look at the adjustments our O makes at the half and make some improvements. Our tendencies must be a bit too obvious and allows defenses to take chances.

5-4 is possible. We have to play better in the second half on offense. The defense needs to get healthy and continue to improve.

Last night hurt but we are still better than we have been and we still have the potential for a good season.

[CalallenStang]

Ponyte, I agree with all of your points except the following:

So far our offense isn't performing in the second half. Time to take a critical look at the adjustments our O makes at the half and make some improvements.

I half-disagree. Yesterday at WSU, we moved the ball at will in the second half, until we threw the inevitable pick to end the drive. I didn't see the game, so maybe the picks had something to do with the playcall, but based on what I've seen from BLM over the past 15 games, I have a feeling he made some throws that he probably shouldn't have.

5-4. That is the win-loss record we need to go to a bowl.

I disagree only because of how many bowls C-USA has this year. C-USA has bowl slots for 6 to 7 bowl-eligible teams this year (depending on Army's performance). Contrast that with 2006 - C-USA had 5 slots - Rice was the 5th team in, SMU was the first team out. Now, let's take a look at the teams from C-USA who have a shot at going bowling this year:

Will be in a bowl unless they collapse
Houston (2-0)
Tulsa (2-1)
Southern Miss (3-0)

Teams with a realistic shot at a bowl
Marshall (2-1)
UAB (1-2)
East Carolina (1-2)
Memphis (1-2)
UCF (2-1)
SMU (2-1)
UTEP (1-2)

Key games for each team:

Marshall: vs. ECU, @ West Virginia, @ UCF, vs. SMU, @ UTEP
UAB: @ Texas A&M, @ Ole Miss, @ Marshall, @ UTEP, @ ECU, vs. UCF
ECU: @ Marshall, @ SMU, vs. Virginia Tech, @ Tulsa, vs. Southern Miss
Memphis: @ UCF, UTEP, @ Southern Miss, ECU, @ Tennessee, @ Houston, @ Tulsa
UCF: @ ECU, @ Miami (FL), @ Texas, @ Houston, @ UAB
SMU: ECU, Navy, @ Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, @ Marshall, Tulane
UTEP: @ Texas, @ Houston, @ Memphis, Tulsa, SMU

Marshall has a good shot at it, but their coaching is horrible. 6-6 at the best

UAB's schedule is too tough to dig out of a 1-2 hole. Marshall, UTEP, and ECU are tough home games; they will be blasted by the Aggies and Rebels.

ECU will probably make a bowl at 7-5 or 8-4

I don't see Memphis becoming bowl-eligible with their schedule and a 1-2 start.

UCF is 2-1, but the games against Miami, Texas, and Houston are already almost losses, so they have to win one of the other two games listed and don't lose any games that they shouldn't. 6-6 sounds like the most possible record.

SMU has to win at least one of their next 5 and 3 of the final four to be 6-6. I think there's a good chance that SMU does get that, and maybe one more, but for argument's sake, let's say we finish 6-6.

UTEP is 1-2 and Texas and Houston are the next two teams on their schedule. Once the Miners are 1-4, I have a feeling their team will quite on Mike Price.

So you have, at the most, an 8-4 ECU team, with 6-6 UCF, SMU, and Marshall. Out of those three, the Hawaii Bowl will take SMU (I've documented previously that SMU is the Hawaii Bowl's preferred team).

[carolina stang]

Very good points Ponyte. Though Bo certainly will force things on his own, the coaching adjustments (or lack thereof) are contributing to his mistakes. The staff has to do better. That being said, the defensive play this year is a a vast improvement over the last several years in both halves.

For whatever reason, this loss hurt more than any I can remember in several years. We were so close to 3-0 and when we were up by two touchdowns. I really thought we had the best start since the DP.

Thanks for the perspective though. I was talking myself off the ledge last night! This one was in the W column and then it wasn't.

[Charleston Pony]

got too much time on my hands today; just looked up how we have fared against the rest of our schedule in the post death penalty era:

TCU 5-15
ECU 0-2
Navy 2-5
Houston 2-10
Tulsa 9-5
Rice 4-16
UTEP 5-7
Marshall 1-1
Tulane 2-8

I agree these guys might just find a way to win one of the next 5 games and be in good position to win 3 of the last 4. That would make us bowl eligible, but to be bowl deserving with this schedule, they need to find a way to win 7 games this year

[CalallenStang]

got too much time on my hands today; just looked up how we have fared against the rest of our schedule in the post death penalty era:

TCU 5-15
ECU 0-2
Navy 2-5
Houston 2-10
Tulsa 9-5
Rice 4-16
UTEP 5-7
Marshall 1-1
Tulane 2-8

I agree these guys might just find a way to win one of the next 5 games and be in good position to win 3 of the last 4. That would make us bowl eligible, but to be bowl deserving with this schedule, they need to find a way to win 7 games this year

Totally agree with that statement, but when bowls are contractually obligated to take bowl-eligible teams from certain conferences and there's no more-deserving team out there, teams who don't deserve to be playing in the post-season end up bowling.

[SMU 86]

4 and 5 gets us to the Hawaii bowl (we need 6 total wins).

[Stallion]

again conferences with 6-6 teams have to accommodate 7 win teams first. Then the 6 win teams get in if there is an availiable bowl. Plus some of CUSA Bowls have options where they take a CUSA team every other year or so. I don't think CUSA has 7 bowls to send their teams to this year. I believe it is 6

[CalallenStang]

again conferences with 6-6 teams have to accommodate 7 win teams first. Then the 6 win teams get in if there is an availiable bowl. Plus some of CUSA Bowls have options where they take a CUSA team every other year or so. I don't think CUSA has 7 bowls to send their teams to this year. I believe it is 6

It's 7 if Army is not eligible for the Eagle Bank Bowl.
http://www.eaglebankbowl.org/about-us/game-information/

Representing the service academies in the 2009 game is the United States Military Academy at West Point (Army). Should Army not qualify for a bowl game this season, a team from Conference USA will play in the EagleBank Bowl. The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is also featured in the EagleBank Bowl.

[Stallion]

Army is 2-1 and has a relatively challenging schedule-but there are some winable games-VMI, NTSU, Tulane, Temple as well as Iowa St., Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Air Force, Navy. I could see Army getting to 6 wins-might be close
http://army.rivals.com/schedule.asp

[CalallenStang]

Army is 2-1 and has a relatively challenging schedule-but there are some winable games-VMI, NTSU, Tulane, Temple as well as Iowa St., Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Air Force, Navy
http://army.rivals.com/schedule.asp

They will beat VMI & Temple, Tulane probably as well, NTSU is a tossup, they don't win any of the games you listed on your "as well as" list. NTSU game will probably go to Dodge and Co. which would be a shame because it would be 6 wins for Army if they can win it.

[Stallion]

The Texas Bowl site says the 2009 game will pit a team from Big 12 and the Naval Academy if it is bowl eligible-which it likely will be. So possibly CUSA will have only 5 bowl teams. Of course, there are some independent bowls or bowl spots can open up if a conference can't fill them
http://www.texasbowl.org/news/2009/texa ... d-on-espn/

[CalallenStang]

The Texas Bowl site says the 2009 game will pit a team from CUSA and the Naval Academy if it is bowl eligible-which it likely will be. So possibly CUSA will have only 5 bowl teams. Of course, there are some independent bowls or bowl spots can open up if a conference can't fill them
http://www.texasbowl.org/news/2009/texa ... d-on-espn/

What choice of Big XII team does the Texas Bowl have? Wasn't the Big XII supposed to play in last year's game but they didn't have enough teams eligible?

[J.T.supporta]

we dont go bowling because of yesterdays loss

[CalallenStang]

The Texas Bowl site says the 2009 game will pit a team from CUSA and the Naval Academy if it is bowl eligible-which it likely will be. So possibly CUSA will have only 5 bowl teams. Of course, there are some independent bowls or bowl spots can open up if a conference can't fill them
http://www.texasbowl.org/news/2009/texa ... d-on-espn/

What choice of Big XII team does the Texas Bowl have? Wasn't the Big XII supposed to play in last year's game but they didn't have enough teams eligible?

Answered my own question - Texas Bowl is the 7th Non-BCS choice from the Big XII (#8 or #9 overall).

[EastStang]

Tulsa showed it was not invinceable at Norman. Their QB threw a bunch of picks, too.
ECU has not showed the form it had last year in losses to UNC and WVA.
We have a chance in those games if we can avoid TO's.