Football Attendance - What Does It All Mean ?

[panhandle_pony]

Since Friday is a "bail-out" early day at my office, I decided to kill some time by creating a spreadsheet review of our historical attendance at home games in an attempt to determine how, or if, a winning percentage influences attendance. Without consideration as to opponent/strength of schedule, competing events in the area, special promotions, weather or other factors that may effect attendance, I took a look solely at: (1) where we played our home games (Owenby, Cotton Bowl, Texas Stadium, or Ford) without allowances for home field changes, i.e. for example from 1972 to 1978 the Cotton Bowl was our "home field" yet we would play a couple of games each season during this timeframe at Texas Stadium, and (2) won/lost record.

I'm not a statistician, but in perusing the spreadsheet it appears to me the won/lost percentage does not carry as much weight in determining attendance as one would think. Without listing on this post all of the data (home attendance and home field from 1945 through 2004), a few stats jump out and are listed below that argue won/lost record might not be as significant as one might think:

1. Without consideration for the years 1949 and 1950 at the Cotton Bowl when the attendance averaged about 61,000 per game (combined won/lost for these two years was 11-8-1) the next highest average was 1979, the initial year, at Texas Stadium with an average of 55,578 and a won/lost record that year of 5-6. This was the first full year at Texas Stadium so that might account for the high average. But the year before, 1978 at the Cotton Bowl, the average was not bad at 51,960 and we had a record of 4-6-1. But look at the following few years at Texas Stadium: 1980 avg. attendance 36,773 with a record of 8-4; 1981 avg. attendance of 33,325 with a 10-1 record; 1982 avg attendance of 40,863 with a record of 11-0-1. Those were all great years, yet the losing record of 5-6 in 1979; and the losing record of 4-6-1 in 1978 both produced attendance that was significantly higher than the average attendance the following three years when the combined won/lost record was 29-5-1.

2. The post death penalty era is also interesting. From 1989 thru 1994 we played at Owenby; from 1995 thru 1999 we played at the Cotton Bowl and from 2000 on at Ford. The average attendance from 1989 thru 2004 was 19,875 per game. If you take a look at the best won/lost record turing this same timeframe, you find that 1996 thru 1998 yielded an overall record of 16-18 with an average attendance of 20,106. Not significantly higher than the average over the above referenced 16 year period when, as you all know, our record sucked !

3. 1968 and 1969 seasons both averaged the same attendance (38,860) yet the won/loss record of 1968 was 8-3 while the 1969 record was 3-7.

4. I think one of the most revealing stats takes place beginning 1959 when home attendance averaged 41,000 but dropped to the mid 20's from 1960 thru 1963. These three years were losing seasons for the Mustangs (combined 4-24-2). This forty percent drop was by far the largest drop in attendance and one could argue the won/lost record was the reason. But since this 40% drop was one of the highest over the years reviewed, I think the decline was fueled with the introduction of pro football to the area.

The above are just a few observations over 60 years of Mustang glory. So what does it all mean ? It means I'm bored to tears on a Friday wasting time with my new spreadsheet and waiting for the mighty Mustangs to level Navy on Saturday night in front of a capacity crowd !! Go Ponies !!

[Sam I Am]

The BIG change in attendance post-DP may be related to SWC versus WAC & C-USA membership. Non-BCS status is killing us as much as losing.

[panhandle_pony]

Sam I Am, I agree

[mr. pony]

The BIG change in attendance post-DP may be related to SWC versus WAC & C-USA membership. Non-BCS status is killing us as much as losing.

Very true, but (ready?) why has TCU taken off post-SWC?

[SMU 86]

It would be interesting to see to what degree our attendance was affected when the Dallas Cowboys came.

[SmooBoy]

Announced crowd tomorrow: 21,247
Band members: 89
Students: 600
Mascots: 1
Out of place horsies: 2

[Charleston Pony]

I have no doubt that the decline in attendance in the early 60's can be attributed in large part to the Cowboys arrival and the Texans success in those years. As a kid growing up in N. Dallas, I remember those 'introductory" deals the Cowboys had...my Dad bought one end zone ticket and brought 5 kids free. As one of 4 boys he had to drag along, we got to rotate bringing a friend each week. It was good marketing by the Cowboys as they tried to see a bad product.

[JGeorges]

Panhandle...

Those are some interesting numbers...

Two of the factors (related) that could account for attendance dips and spikes would be general economic conditions and ticket prices...

Completely talking out my bahookie here, but is it possible that the dip from the 1978-79 years in the 80-82 years (when SMU had some of the best teams they have ever had) is related to increased ticket prices in anticipation of nationally competitive teams?

Also, there is a possibility that with high attendance totals in 78-79 with losing teams that some fans jumped off the bandwagon too soon and missed the great teams of the early 80's...

I know that when I was in college in El Paso in the late 1980's a similar thing happened to UTEP...

UTEP had been absolutely horrible for about 15 years prior and then all of a sudden they are actually quite good in a very competitive WAC in 1987 at 7-4 and then 10-2 in 1988 with a bowl appearance...

In 1987 the team drew a staggeing 42,000 per game but then attendance DECREASED significantly the following year...

The next season UTEP went right back to being terrible again and attendance dipped even further...

I think economics has a lot to do with attendance...

[huskerpony]

The BIG change in attendance post-DP may be related to SWC versus WAC & C-USA membership. Non-BCS status is killing us as much as losing.

Very true, but (ready?) why has TCU taken off post-SWC?

Winning.

Granted there was pretty good attendance in Ft Worth when I was around and the frogs were awful, but that was always for a rivalry game. But, one thing we all know about Dallas these days is that Dallas loves a winner.

Even in the year we were good, getting down to the Cotton Bowl was an issue--and no one really knew we were better until half the season was over. Had the success continued, I feel more people would have started showing up. But as one of the few students who religously attended games, there was still the occasional weekend that there were better games on TV and we would see the score and think, man we should be at the game instead of the bar, but it was too far too get down there in time. In recent years, boulevard has been more entertaining than most of the games for most....

Bowl game year followed by another successful season will start bringing locals (and students) back in.

[panhandle_pony]

JGeorges, I thought of the variables that could influence the swings in attendance other than winning, but the ticket prices escaped me. I'm sure this is an ingredient; and, winning is probably the most importatnt, but historical records don't always support "winning" by itself.

[carolina stang]

Completely talking out my bahookie here, but is it possible that the dip from the 1978-79 years in the 80-82 years (when SMU had some of the best teams they have ever had) is related to increased ticket prices in anticipation of nationally competitive teams?

Interesting exercise Panhandle. I have killed time (that I didn't really have) with SMU football type exercises.

J. Georges: Your quote above is part of the story. The year before my freshman year at SMU (Fall of 77) My Dad and I attended the Ohio State, Texas Tech and Rice games at the Cotton Bowl. There was a local tie to OSU as the buckeyes QB Rod Gerald was as I recall from South Oak Cliff. Still, they were nationally ranked anyway and it was a good crowd. Tech was homecoming with much less attendance and the Rice game crowd was abysmal. (One of the worst crowds in our history) Something had to be done. The next two falls with Mustang Mania and Russ Potts (as we all know). got the butts in seats with tons of giveaway tickets, a tie-in with the Jerry Lewis telethon (MDA bowl at the TCU opener)promotional campaigns on radio/TV. His philosophy was people who came to the game spent money on parking, food, programs, souvenirs etc. As the team got better by 1980, they had to do a little less since the product was better. Then in 1981 when Bob Hitch came on as AD, his philosophy was completely different. He never believed in doing any promotions to speak of with tickets and was against giveaways. The team was getting better and better but it was still tough with our fan base to be over 40k consistently.

And there were a lot of people that hated to drive to Texas Stadium after we moved there beginning with 1979. Certainly not true rabid Mustang fans, but the casual one. I remember riding on our Sigma Chi beer bus to the opener against Rice in 79 and almost having to use the freeway as my outhouse.

[KnuckleStang]

Frogs are down 6-3 to CSU right now at home, and the CBS-CS studio guys' only comment about the highlight was basically, "You are ranked in the top 10, so why is your stadium half empty."