Current Sagarin

[The PonyGrad]

Clearly I have too much time on my hands because I decided to go through the whole conference's schedule and project final standings based on the current Sagarin. I did not bother with home field, just gave the win to the higher ranked team. Given that there are 5 teams ranked within 6 of each other not using homefield clearly made a difference but they would all have been close anyway, I just thought it might be interesting.

The biggest surprise to me was Marshall winning out, they benefit from not having to play Tulsa or Houston this year.

East
Marshall 7-1 9-3
ECU 6-2 7-5
UCF 4-4 6-6
So Miss 3-5 5-7
UAB 3-5 4-8
Mem 1-7 2-10

West
Hou 7-1 11-1
Tulsa 7-1 9-3
SMU 5-3 6-6
UTEP 4-4 5-7
Tulane 2-6 4-8
Rice 0-8 0-12

So, if you are not considering home field, don't we beat Marshall. Someone mentioned the homefield as worth more than 3pts.

[Wuba]

Clearly I have too much time on my hands because I decided to go through the whole conference's schedule and project final standings based on the current Sagarin. I did not bother with home field, just gave the win to the higher ranked team. Given that there are 5 teams ranked within 6 of each other not using homefield clearly made a difference but they would all have been close anyway, I just thought it might be interesting.

The biggest surprise to me was Marshall winning out, they benefit from not having to play Tulsa or Houston this year.

East
Marshall 7-1 9-3
ECU 6-2 7-5
UCF 4-4 6-6
So Miss 3-5 5-7
UAB 3-5 4-8
Mem 1-7 2-10

West
Hou 7-1 11-1
Tulsa 7-1 9-3
SMU 5-3 6-6
UTEP 4-4 5-7
Tulane 2-6 4-8
Rice 0-8 0-12

So, if you are not considering home field, don't we beat Marshall. Someone mentioned the homefield as worth more than 3pts.

Marshall is ranked ahead of SMU so I had Marshall winning.

[Dooby]

Riddle me this: When is Sagarin not Sagarin? The answer is when you ask him.

Sagarin's website actually rates teams three different ways. When he started ranking teams, he did so for gambling purposes and his rankings got added to the BCS. Those rankings took into account the margin of victory. Using that formula, the Conference USA ranking sort out like this:

52 Houston
58 Tulsa
75 Southern Miss
83 SMU
90 East Carolina
91 Marshall
109 Central Florida
130 UAB
131 UTEP
149 Memphis
163 Tulane
170 Rice

The problem with that, as Sagarin puts it is that it is not "politically correct" and hte BCS made him change his formula to eliminate margin of victory. When margin of victory is eliminated, you get Sagarin's BCS formula, which ranks Conference USA like this:

26 Houston
64 Marshall
66 East Carolina
72 SMU
76 Tulsa
93 Southern Miss
106 Central Florida
112 UTEP
119 Tulane
122 UAB
128 Memphis
175 Rice

This is the formula that is used as part of the BCS.

Per Sagarin's website, the ranking used in the original post is a synthesis of the two formulas. So, if you saw Sagarin in a bar and askied him to rank teams, he would do so based on the first ranings in this post, putting SMU 4th in Conference USA.

[Dooby]

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/rankings

Links to the other computer ratings. Peruse at your own risk.

[Stallion]

You can see the effect-Tulsa taking beating for OU beat down

[smupony94]

143 North Texas

[San Antonio Mustang]

Am I reading his results correctly? Is he saying our schedule is tougher than Florida, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, & Utah to name a few?

Here is the URL I am looking at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

[SC Pony]

Yes, you are reading that correctly. He is saying that our schedule is tougher thus far in the season.

[SC Pony]

Revised after the Tulsa game, we win 3 of the remaining 4 based on Sagarin's Predictor. I hope that turns out to be accurate.

[Charleston Pony]

I've felt all along that to be "bowl deserving", we need 7 wins. Yesterday was a major step in that direction. Let's just take care of business against Rice. We need to all do our part by showing up and being loud.