Nevada - by virtue of their big win over Fresno. The WAC doesn't have very good bowl options. Hawaii is their best bowl, unless you want your reward for a good season to take you to Boise or New Mexico. Sounds like Idaho will stay home and Fresno will be rewarded with a trip to NM.
Nevada owns 1 more win against a team with a winning record than we have...and that came against Idaho. Fresno was their "quality" win, just as ECU was ours. Should be a good game