Pac-10 expansion teams may need to be selected this summer

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

Not sure what the requirements are. That's a good question.

As much as many knowledgable people on this board feel that the big conferences won't go to 14 schools, I still feel that will eventually happen. I could see UT and A&M going to the SEC and Colorado and Missouri bolting for the Pac-10 and Big-10 respectively. That means the end of the Big-12. Of those remaining Big-12 schools, I could see Nebraska and Oklahoma ending up in the Big-10, making the SEC and Big-10 both 14 school conferences. I also could easily see the ACC tapping the Big-East for West Virginia and one other to go to 14 and kill of the Big East as a top-tier conference.

Total speculation? Absolutely. Just my two cents.

[Garret]

The SEC has a TV contract that caps their TV revenue for 15 years...though it is a *nice* cap of $205 million per year. Since they cannot get any more TV money for the next 14 years, expanding their conference would just cut the money each school gets. So, the SEC is not likely to expand beyond 12 teams.

The Big 10 gets their TV money from their Big 10 Network. That means that they get more money each time a cable system adds them or subscribers decide to pay more to get their network. For example, they went from $68 million a few years ago to $242 million this year ($22 million per school, more than the $17 million per school the SEC gets). So, expanding into new TV markets (such as Texas or Missouri, for example) *is* a way to get more money. They could get more money if they go beyond 12 schools *if* the schools bring in big enough markets.

I've been trying to monitor the TV contracts for each conference on my blog, updating my notes here:

http://uhwarriorquotes.blogspot.com/201 ... -d-ia.html

[Garret]

The BCS contract that all conferences signed included a provision that the BCS could add one more AQ conference, based on their criterion. The formula is based on nonconference games, national rankings, and some other factors--it appears that the MWC is close to passing that requirement as they are now and reports say that if they add Boise State they will definitely be above the requirement.

However, if the Pac-10 or Big 12 raids the MWC and takes a few of their key schools away, then the MWC will fall short of becoming an AQ conference when they compute things 2 years from now.

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

Here's some more wild speculation.

Let's say the Big-12 does blow up, with Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Colorado in the north and UT and A&M in the south leaving for various other conferences. I could actually see that as potentially a good thing for schools like SMU, TCU, etc. Not sure what could happen with the MWC, but if Utah and/or BYU left that would probably spell the end of that conf. and would leave TCU without a home. Add that to the castaways from a Big-12 blowup, and a few schools from C-USA West, and you could have the core of a nice regional conf. with Baylor, Tech, SMU, TCU, UH, and Ok. State.

I know I'm getting way off the reservation here, but its more fun than work.

[Stallion]

that is probably SMU's best opportunity but even that isn't a sure thing without continued improvement in the program

[EastStang]

I agree with Stallion. Our only chance and its remote is if there is a major blow up of the Big XII. Otherwise, we're on the sidelines watching and maneuvering with the other left outs. For decertification of AQ, it has to do with having no team in the top 15 for like 3 of the last five years. The Big East is red-line and the MWC is drooling at becoming an AQ. Raiding and taking Utah and UNM would halt that. Funny thing is that BYU doesn't get you there, but they are the only school in that conference that moves the dial financially.

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

As things stand today, I'm not sure a blowup of the Big-12 is that remote a possibility. Unless they: (1) vastly improve their TV deal and/or get their own cable channel; and (2) change the revenue-sharing structure to make it equal, I think there are greener pastures for several current Big-12 teams.

[Topper]

[quote="Garret"]The SEC has a TV contract that caps their TV revenue for 15 years...though it is a *nice* cap of $205 million per year. Since they cannot get any more TV money for the next 14 years, expanding their conference would just cut the money each school gets. So, the SEC is not likely to expand beyond 12 teams.

Topper says:

[i][i]Contracts are re-negotiated all the time. I'm sure the CBS affiliates in Texas would LOVE to have UT and A&M on their affiliates every week.[/i][/i]

[EastStang]

The two questions are (1) at the end of the day does the bottom line of Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida increase by adding UT and A&M, if not won't happen. Either the conference will have to move to a 9 game conference schedule which means giving up a money making body bag game against a pasty or losing a home game against a traditional opponent for an additional three years. (2) Do Florida, Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, LSU want another team in the conference that will have to be beaten in the regular season to get to a National Championship game? Remember many of the recent National Championship games have featured one of the above SEC teams. I think that the driving forces in this will be ABC vs. CBS as well as the Big Ten network. To the Big Ten adding UT adds huge $$$$ in cable system pick-up fees (three top ten markets Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio)-but Missouri clearly would be a nice salve with KC and STL markets. ABC will try and keep the Big XII together and will do what they need to do to avoid its break-up even if it means steering the PAC-10 toward MWC teams and offering to sweeten the pot to make that palatable. CBS would have to signal to the SEC that it is willing to give the conference a huge bonus for adding UT and A&M to make up for their addition. Television $$$$ will drive this deal no doubt. And sorry UT fans, but the biggest whore out there is in Austin and that ho will be commanding high cotton. Come on in boys, biggest wallet wins.

[gostangs]

There has not been much about the politics in all this. If I am a Tx state legislator not affiliated with a "leaving team - (i.e. UT or others) - I am not going to stand by and do nothing while they pull out of the big 12 (hurting the remaining teans) - and at the same time that same leaving school(s) is asking for more money from the state. Even if I am afiliated with UT - is it worth a few million for a team that already makes so much to dislocate the team from its regional rivals and its fan base (every away game 800 plus miles away). Meanwhile - every non rev sport has to travel huge distances all across the country once or twice a week during school? Just dont think that would fly at the end of the day. There will for sure be re-alignment in some conferences - but I stil dont see UT leaving the Big 12 - The only geographically accepatable option would be SEC - but why would UT want to run that gauntlet every year when they can cake walk through a weakened big 12 and stay top 5 just about every year. I think this leads to an early renegotiation of the Big 12 TV deal.