Interesting Statistic

[expony18]

20% of the 2009 NfL rookies to start at least one game were first round draft picks. coming in second place was undrafted free agents at 17%. soooo based on those statistics mccann and mcneal have a better chance at starting then emmanuel sanders. i didnt have time to get the rest of the stastics, but if you watch NFL live tomorrow i'm sure you'll see it

[MustangIcon]

what you are forgetting is that a single round of the draft has only 32 players. i would venture to say there are pretty easily 300 undrafted free agents every year. when you account for that size difference, the likelihood is much, much smaller for undrafted FA's than it first appears.

[that's great raplh]

I forget lots of stuff

[Dooby]

Last season, there were more undrafted free agents in the league than players that had been drafted in the 5th, 6th and 7th round combined.

[expony18]

what you are forgetting is that a single round of the draft has only 32 players. i would venture to say there are pretty easily 300 undrafted free agents every year. when you account for that size difference, the likelihood is much, much smaller for undrafted FA's than it first appears.

you're kind of missing the point

[Football4ever]

It makes sense to me

[Alaric]

what you are forgetting is that a single round of the draft has only 32 players. i would venture to say there are pretty easily 300 undrafted free agents every year. when you account for that size difference, the likelihood is much, much smaller for undrafted FA's than it first appears.

you're kind of missing the point

Stallion's interpretation:

First round = TCU model (get a few good players)
Free Agency = Navy football model (invite everyone in the country to try out and select the best)

[Stallion]

exactly I was reminded of that last nite when reading this article. One of these days after Navy and Air Force go to their 50th and 40th Bowls under 4 separate coaches respectively since they created ther Prep School Models you're going to have to concede that running 350 sleepers through their program in a 5 year period is the only thing that allows them to be competitive. Further, if the Academies were restricted by NCAA Scholarship Limitations they would never ever go to a Bowl Game.

[MustangIcon]

what you are forgetting is that a single round of the draft has only 32 players. i would venture to say there are pretty easily 300 undrafted free agents every year. when you account for that size difference, the likelihood is much, much smaller for undrafted FA's than it first appears.

you're kind of missing the point

i am? how so?

[Football4ever]

Actually it doesnt make sense to me..... Nevermind.

[expony18]

free agents sometimes have a better chance of 1. making the team and 2. starting, before players drafted in later rounds. sure if you want to play the numbers game there is a larger pool of free agents then any particular round. BUT, my point is that free agents can choose the team they go to after first examning the roster and determining their chances of making the team....

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... ee-agent/1

"After talking the decision over with his family and Titans coach Jeff Fisher, Blount decided that his best opportunity was in Tennessee.

Per our source, Blount has respectfully explained his decision to 49ers coach Mike Singletary and is on good terms with him.

With the Titans no longer having LenDale White(notes) on the roster, Blount felt like there was a chance for him to provide a power runner behind Pro Bowl runner Chris Johnson.

The 49ers drafted Mississippi State running back Anthony Dixon(notes) in the sixth round and have standout Frank Gore(notes) and Glen Coffee(notes) on the roster."

http://www.ponyfans.com/features/index.php?id=166

“We looked at the teams that were interested in me, and we looked at their rosters, and thought about which team would offer the best chance to make the team and earn early playing time.

“Indy has some young corners they like a lot, and they’re not going anywhere,” McCann said. “Houston drafted Trindon Holliday (the speedy kick return specialist from LSU), so they’re not looking for another return guy.

“The Cowboys said Dez Bryant would get some work in the return game, but Coach Campo said if (Bryant) is going to have a significant role on offense, they might pull that back. A lot of teams are hesitant to put high draft picks back there returning kicks if they’re going to have a big role on offense or defense.”

Make sense?

of course, my comment of ES may not be true because they trades holmes... but then again they drafted mike wallace in the third round last year

edit: i spelled their wrong (there), my bad. also thank you mustangicon for supplying us with some amazing arithmetic, you truly are an icon

[MustangIcon]

The chances of ANY undrafted free agent starting is higher than that of ANY 3rd round pick, only because of the greater size in the overall pool of undrafted free agents. If we are talking 1 specific player from either pool, a 3rd rounder would have a much higher chance.

1 player drafted in the 3rd rd. and lets say 3rd rounders have a 10% chance. 1/32*.1= 0.003125

1 player undrafted free agent. 1/300*.17= 0.00057

I will contend that ES, or anyone else drafted in the 3rd round this year, has a better chance of starting at some point in their career than either Shawnbrey or McCann. That said, I hope all 3 of our Ponies are starters and have great NFL careers.

[expony18]

ok stallion.

[MustangIcon]

I guess I must be missing the point.

[Stallion]

when he says that he means you made a bright, articulate and persuasive analysis